2 upvotes, 1 direct replies (showing 1)
You don't need to know the exact probability for decision making. For horse riding, the exact figure for injuries per hour riding won't available, but there will be stastics available for the number of horseriding injuries and I can infer a rough probability, which will show the sport is quite dangerous. I don't even need the statistics if I pay attention to the local news media and anectdotal reports. I know that my chances of being injured by falling tree branches in a forest are real but very low just by personal observation, and that the probability rises during a storm. There are exact stastics available for things like car or plane travel. I know that if someone rings me offering to fix my computer the probability is quite high that it is a scam.
Comment by Magyp at 25/01/2020 at 21:03 UTC
2 upvotes, 1 direct replies
I'm not sure you understood the point of the article. Let's say you calculate the probabilty of an accident for taking a ride somewhere is 0,0000000000%. Making the decision of taking the ride is less risky obviously, but something can still happen, because whatever is influencing the present may have not be considered in the mathematical model that calculated the 0%.
It is a leap of faith, that's why sometimes it's better to decide without even thinking, life is not a predictable machine with a set number of variables that you can control, shit just happens so you gotta trust that whatever you are doing is the right choice. The more insecure you are, the more you have to think about decisions and calculate probabilities, but like you said, they're not necessary.
I chose to reply, I'm confident in what I've learned. Am I absolutely right? According to my calculations I am, but it was still a leap of faith to reply to you. Was it a good decision? maybe I'm just wasting my time explaining stuff here and you won't even bother to read. Maybe someone will come and crush my little intelect and prove me I'm talking nonsense. The more I think I about it, replying is a mistake. Fuck it I'll post anyways.