2 upvotes, 1 direct replies (showing 1)
can you really calculate the probability? saying "certain low probability" is contradictory. If you don't have the number then it's not probability, its random. You just believe it's low and have faith in your intuition and experiences.
Even if you had the exact proability, you can never be certain it's accurate, infinite variables are at play, you just believe it's accurate so you can dare to take the flight.
Comment by breadandbuttercreek at 25/01/2020 at 19:33 UTC
2 upvotes, 1 direct replies
You don't need to know the exact probability for decision making. For horse riding, the exact figure for injuries per hour riding won't available, but there will be stastics available for the number of horseriding injuries and I can infer a rough probability, which will show the sport is quite dangerous. I don't even need the statistics if I pay attention to the local news media and anectdotal reports. I know that my chances of being injured by falling tree branches in a forest are real but very low just by personal observation, and that the probability rises during a storm. There are exact stastics available for things like car or plane travel. I know that if someone rings me offering to fix my computer the probability is quite high that it is a scam.