2012-09-14 11:18:19
The US central bank has moved to kick-start economic recovery by restarting its
policy of pumping money into the economy via quantitative easing.
The Federal Reserve said it will buy "additional agency mortgage-backed
securities at a pace of $40bn ( 25bn) per month".
Stock markets in the US and Asia jumped on the news, with European markets also
expected to open higher on Friday.
The US economy is a pivotal issue in this year's US presidential election.
Interest rates in the US have been close to zero for several years now, and the
Fed again kept them at below 0.25% on Thursday.
'Matter of time'
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke also lowered the Fed's growth forecast for the US
economy to 2% this year, down from the 2.4% it predicted in June. But it
expects growth to rebound in 2013 to as much as 3%.
"The committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation,
economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in
labour market conditions," said the Fed.
The US central bank has tried to support the economy by quantitative easing -
buying $2.3tn ( 1.4tn) in bonds in two rounds.
For some analysts, the latest measures - dubbed "QE3" - were less than
expected. But Q3 is to be an open-ended move, continuing until the employment
market improves.
However, Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said: "We doubt it
will be enough to get the economy on the right track. It's only a matter of
time before speculation begins as to when the Fed will raise its purchases from
$40bn a month."
The Fed's move sparked a jump on Wall Street markets, with the Dow Jones index
closing up 1.55%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.8% and Hong Kong's
Hang Seng added 2.5%.
The central bank calls its QE measures "asset purchases", where the central
bank buys bonds to keep the long-term cost of borrowing down. The last round of
asset purchases ended last year.
Mortgage-backed securities are debt backed by loans made to homeowners.
The unemployment rate in the US has been above 8% since January 2009, but the
current 8.1% is down from the recent high of 10% in October 2009.
"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability,
the committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy
will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery
strengthens," the Fed said.
The Fed also confirmed that its $267bn ( 170bn) programme to reduce long-term
borrowing costs for firms and households would continue for the rest of the
year.
In a move dubbed "Operation Twist", the central bank buys longer-term bonds
from retail lenders and swaps them for shorter-term bonds.
Global stock markets rise on US Fed stimulus plan
European share markets have jumped after the US Federal Reserve moved to
kick-start recovery by pumping more money into the economy.
In the UK, Germany and France stock markets opened about 1.5% up, following
rises on Wall Street and in Asia.
Banks led the markets higher, with RBS up 3.8% and Barclays up 4.5%. Other
European banks made similar advances.
It followed the Fed's decision on Thursday to inject $40bn ( 25bn) a month into
the US economy.
The plan to buy up mortgage debt will continue until further notice, the Fed
said. The central bank also kept interest rates at below 0.25%.
The aim is to reduce long-term borrowing costs for firms and households. On
Wall Street on Thursday, the Dow Jones index closed up 1.55%. On Friday, Hong
Kong's Hang Seng added 2.7% and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.8%.
Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds also fell, easing pressure on borrowing
costs for the two heavily-indebted nations.
Investors hope the Fed's measures will revive growth in the US economy, the
world's biggest and a key market for Asian and European exports.
The Fed's promise that the quantitative easing programme was open-ended and
would continue until the US economy showed signs of recovery has bolstered
confidence, said analysts.
"They're saying that the punch bowl, the fuel for the economy, isn't going away
- it's going to be here as long as you need it," said Tony Fratto, managing
partner at Hamilton Place Strategies, a policy consulting firm.
'Across the board'
There have been growing fears about the global economy, with a weak recovery in
the US and the continuing debt crisis in the eurozone.
The slowdown in China's economy, the world's second-largest and one of its
biggest drivers of growth since the global financial crisis, has fanned those
fears.
Prompted by these concerns, policymakers in these regions have been taking
measures to try to spur a fresh wave of growth.
The Federal Reserve's announcement came days after the European Central Bank
(ECB) announced its latest plan.
Last week, the ECB said that it would buy bonds from the bloc's debt-ridden
nations in an attempt to bring down their borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, China has cut its interest rates twice since June to bring down
borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Beijing has also lowered the
amount of money that banks need to keep in reserve three times in the past few
months to encourage further lending.
Fed bets big in new push to rescue U.S. economy
By Pedro da Costa and Alister Bull
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve launched another aggressive stimulus
program on Thursday, saying it would pump $40 billion into the U.S. economy
each month until it saw a sustained upturn in the weak jobs market.
The central bank's decision to tie its controversial bond buying directly to
economic conditions was an unprecedented step that marked a big escalation in
its efforts to drive U.S. unemployment lower. Stock prices jumped, while gold
hit a six-month high as investors braced for faster inflation.
Unlike in its two previous bond-buying sprees, the Fed said it would only
purchase mortgage-backed securities, hoping in part to unstick a housing sector
that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke called "a missing piston" in the U.S. recovery.
One top Republican charged that the move was a bid to help President Barack
Obama ahead of November's closely contested presidential election. Republican
nominee Mitt Romney's campaign said it confirmed the failure of Obama's
policies.
Bernanke dismissed talk the Fed was taking sides, saying it acted solely
because of the dire state of the U.S. labor market.
"The employment situation ... remains a grave concern," Bernanke told
reporters. "While the economy appears to be on a path of moderate recovery, it
isn't growing fast enough to make significant progress reducing the
unemployment rate."
By buying mortgage-linked debt, the Fed hopes to press mortgage rates lower,
helping the housing market and also encouraging investors in MBS to switch into
other assets, such as corporate bonds, lowering their yields as well.
Those lower borrowing costs should spur more lending and foster faster economic
growth, officials believe. U.S. growth cooled in the second quarter to a tepid
1.7 percent annual rate, and forecasters do not think the economy is expanding
much faster, although it is faring better than many other developed economies.
In August, the United States created just 96,000 jobs, less than needed to keep
up with population growth. While the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1
percent, it was only because many Americans gave up on the search for work.
Businesses have held the line on hiring and put investment plans on hold out of
concern Europe's debt crisis and the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff of scheduled
tax hikes and government spending cuts could derail the economy, economists
say.
In an additional move, the Fed said it was not likely to raise overnight
interest rates from their current near-zero level until at least mid-2015, a
shift from its previous late-2014 guidance. To underscore its resolve, it said
it would pursue an easy monetary policy "for a considerable time" even after
the economy strengthened.
"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the
committee will continue its purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities,
undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as
appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price
stability," the Fed said in a statement.
Asked repeatedly during a post-decision news conference to amplify on that
pledge, Bernanke said the Fed wanted to see a convincing improvement in the
economy that could deliver sustainable job creation and a gradual decline in
unemployment.
"There's not a specific number we have in mind, but what we have seen in the
last six months isn't it," he said.
U.S. stocks shot higher on the Fed's move, with the S&P 500 closing at its
highest level since December 2007 and the Dow Jones industrial average adding
more than 200 points.
Stocks had already been supported by expectations the Fed would act and an
aggressive plan by the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis there.
Stephen Stanley, an economist at Pierpont Securities in Stamford, Connecticut,
said that by tying its purchases to progress reducing U.S. unemployment, the
Fed had "basically locked on the handcuffs and swallowed the key."
PUSHING ON A STRING?
Economists said the Fed could eventually buy more than $1 trillion in debt
given the open-ended nature of its new policy. Capital Economics estimated
purchases could top $1.4 trillion.
The plan fueled some nervousness in financial markets over the potential for
inflation, even though the Fed would pull back on its buying if the economy
strengthened. Bernanke stated explicitly that pushing up prices was not the
Fed's intention.
The price of gold, a traditional inflation safe haven, hit a six month high,
while oil also gained on expectations investors would pile into riskier assets
such as commodities and equities.
Prices for most U.S. Treasury debt rose, although the 30-year bond fell,
reflecting both disappointment that government debt was not on the Fed's
purchase list and inflation worries.
The decision comes in the face of widespread questions about the likely
effectiveness of a further foray into unorthodox monetary policy, including
from Romney. The Fed has already bought $2.3 trillion in U.S. government and
housing-related debt it two rounds of so-called quantitative easing.
Those programs, dubbed QE1 and QE2, bought bonds at a pace closer to around
$100 billion per month.
Bernanke said the Fed's new policy would not be a panacea, and that the central
bank would be unable to fully protect the recovery if Congress and the White
House could not agree on a plan to avoid the fiscal cliff -- the $500 billion
or so in expiring tax cuts and government spending reductions set to take hold
at the start of next year.
But he argued that the Fed's efforts could help.
Senator John Cornyn, head of the Senate Republicans' campaign committee, said
the Fed appeared to be "trying to juice the economy" ahead of the November 6
election, while Lanhee Chen, policy director for the Romney campaign, argued
the decision pointed to a need for new policies from the White House.
"We should be creating wealth, not printing dollars," Chen said.
The White House, which scrupulously avoids commenting on Fed decisions,
declined to be drawn into the debate, but other Democrats rallied to defense of
Bernanke, who once served as an adviser to Republican President George W. Bush.
It was Bush who first nominated Bernanke to the Fed.
"It is unfortunate that Republicans already have expressed disappointment in
this action and are clearly upset that they were unable to intimidate the Fed
into putting partisan politics ahead of national economic interests," said
Democratic Representative Barney Frank.
The Fed also caused ripples abroad. Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega
said he would monitor the impact of the action on Brazil's real currency.
Mantega had accused the Fed's earlier bond buying of unfairly weakening the
U.S. dollar.
BRIGHTER OUTLOOK
In its statement, the Fed said the fresh MBS purchases, which it will start on
Friday, would come on top of its so-called Operation Twist program, in which it
is selling short-term bonds to buy longer-term U.S. Treasury debt.
With its new MBS purchases, the Fed said it would now be buying about $85
billion in long-term securities each month.
In a reflection of optimism over their new policy path, Fed officials lowered
their forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2014 to a 6.7 percent to
7.3 percent range, down from a range of 7.0 percent to 7.7 percent forecast in
June.
One official, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, dissented
against the decision, as he has at every Fed policy meeting this year.
(Editing by Andrea Ricci, Tim Ahmann and Andre Grenon)