2010-05-10 12:24:41
By HOPE YEN, Associated Press Writer Hope Yen, Associated Press Writer Sun
May 9, 12:52 am ET
WASHINGTON White flight? In a reversal, America's suburbs are now more likely
to be home to minorities, the poor and a rapidly growing older population as
many younger, educated whites move to cities for jobs and shorter commutes.
An analysis of 2000-2008 census data by the Brookings Institution highlights
the demographic "tipping points" seen in the past decade and the looming
problems in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, which represent two-thirds of
the U.S. population.
The findings could offer an important road map as political parties, including
the tea party movement, seek to win support in suburban battlegrounds in the
fall elections and beyond. In 2008, Barack Obama carried a substantial share of
the suburbs, partly with the help of minorities and immigrants.
The analysis being released Sunday provides the freshest detail on the nation's
growing race and age divide, which is now feeding tensions in Arizona over its
new immigration law.
Ten states, led by Arizona, surpass the nation in a "cultural generation gap"
in which the senior populations are disproportionately white and children are
mostly minority.
This gap is pronounced in suburbs of fast-growing areas in the Southwest,
including those in Florida, California, Nevada, and Texas.
"A new metro map is emerging in the U.S. that challenges conventional thinking
about where we live and work," said Alan Berube, research director with the
Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, a nonpartisan think-tank based in
Washington. "The old concepts of suburbia, Sun Belt and Rust Belt are outdated
and at odds with effective governance."
Suburbs still tilt white. But, for the first time, a majority of all racial and
ethnic groups in large metro areas live outside the city. Suburban Asians and
Hispanics already had topped 50 percent in 2000, and blacks joined them by
2008, rising from 43 percent in those eight years.
The suburbs now have the largest poor population in the country. They are home
to the vast majority of baby boomers age 55 to 64, a fast-growing group that
will strain social services after the first wave of boomers turns 65 next year.
Analysts attribute the racial shift to suburbs in many cases to substantial
shares of minorities leaving cities, such as blacks from New Orleans in the
aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Whites, too, are driving the trend by
returning or staying put in larger cities.
Washington, D.C., and Atlanta posted the largest increases in white share since
2000, each up 5 percentage points to 44 percent and 36 percent, respectively.
Other white gains were seen in New York, San Francisco, Boston and cities in
another seven of the nation's 100 largest metro areas.
"A new image of urban America is in the making," said William H. Frey, a
demographer at Brookings who co-wrote the report. "What used to be white flight
to the suburbs is turning into 'bright flight' to cities that have become
magnets for aspiring young adults who see access to knowledge-based jobs,
public transportation and a new city ambiance as an attraction."
"This will not be the future for all cities, but this pattern in front runners
like Atlanta, Portland, Ore., Raleigh, N.C., and Austin, Texas, shows that the
old urban stereotypes no longer apply," he said.
The findings are part of Brookings' broad demographic portrait of America since
2000, when the country experienced the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, a historic
boom in housing prices and the worst economic downturn since the Great
Depression.
Calling 2010 the "decade of reckoning," the report urges policymakers to shed
outdated notions of America's cities and suburbs and work quickly to address
the coming problems caused by the dramatic shifts in population.
Among its recommendations: affordable housing and social services for older
people in the suburbs; better transit systems to link cities and suburbs; and a
new federal Office of New Americans to serve the education and citizenship
needs of the rapidly growing immigrant community.
Other findings:
_About 83 percent of the U.S. population growth since 2000 was minority, part
of a trend that will see minorities become the majority by midcentury. Across
all large metro areas, the majority of the child population is now nonwhite.
_The suburban poor grew by 25 percent between 1999 and 2008 five times the
growth rate of the poor in cities. City residents are more likely to live in
"deep" poverty, while a higher share of suburban residents have incomes just
below the poverty line.
_For the first time in several decades, the population is growing at a faster
rate than households, due to delays in marriage, divorce and births as well as
longer life spans. People living alone and nonmarried couple families are among
the fastest-growing in suburbs.