1970-01-01 02:00:00
rlp
Oct 20th 2012 | from the print edition
THE arrival of the mass-produced car, just over a century ago, caused an
explosion of business creation. First came the makers of cars and all the parts
that go into them. Then came the garages, filling stations and showrooms. Then
all sorts of other car-dependent businesses: car parks, motels, out-of-town
shopping centres. Commuting by car allowed suburbs to spread, making fortunes
for prescient housebuilders and landowners. Roadbuilding became a far bigger
business, whereas blacksmiths, farriers and buggy-whip makers faded away as
America s horse and mule population fell from 26m in 1915 to 3m in 1960.
Now another revolution on wheels is on the horizon: the driverless car. Nobody
is sure when it will arrive. Google, which is testing a fleet of autonomous
cars, thinks in maybe a decade, others reckon longer. A report from KPMG and
the Centre for Automotive Research in Michigan concludes that it will come
sooner than you think . And, when it does, the self-driving car, like the
ordinary kind, could bring profound change.
Just imagine. It could, for a start, save the motor industry from stagnation.
Carmakers are fretting at signs that smartphone-obsessed teenagers these days
do not rush to get a driving licence and buy their first car, as their parents
did. Their fear is that the long love affair with the car is fading. But once
they are spared the trouble and expense of taking lessons and passing a test,
young adults might rediscover the joys of the open road. Another worry for the
motor industry is that car use seems to be peaking in the most congested
cities. Yet automated cars would drive nose-to-tail, increasing the capacity of
existing roads; and since they would be able to drop off their passengers and
drive away, the lack of parking spaces in town might not matter so much.
Cars have always been about status as well as mobility; many people would still
want to own a trophy car. These might not clock up much mileage, so carmakers
would have to become more like fashion houses, constantly creating new designs
to get people to swap their motors long before they have worn out. But cars
that are driverless may not need steering wheels, pedals and other manual
controls; and, being virtually crashless (most road accidents are due to human
error), their bodies could be made much lighter. So makers would be able to
turn out new models quicker and at lower cost. Fresh entrants to carmaking
could prove nimbler than incumbents at adapting to this new world.
All these trends will affect the car business. But when mass-produced cars
appeared, they had an impact on the whole of society. What might be the
equivalent social implications of driverless cars? And who might go the same
way as the buggy-whip makers? Electronics and software firms will be among the
winners: besides providing all the sensors and computing power that
self-driving cars will need, they will enjoy strong demand for in-car
entertainment systems, since cars occupants will no longer need to keep their
eyes on the road. Bus companies might run convoys of self-piloting coaches down
the motorways, providing competition for intercity railways. Travelling
salesmen might prefer to journey from city to city overnight in driverless
Winnebagos packed with creature comforts. So, indeed, might some tourists. If
so, they will need fewer hotel rooms.
Cabbies, lorry drivers and all others whose job is to steer a vehicle will have
to find other work. The taxi and car-rental businesses might merge into one
automated pick-up and drop-off service: GM has already shown a prototype of a
two-seater, battery-powered pod that would scuttle about town, with passengers
summoning it by smartphone. Supermarkets, department stores and shopping
centres might provide these free, to attract customers. Driverless cars will be
programmed to obey the law, which means, sadly, the demise of the traffic cop
and the parking warden. And since automated cars will reduce the need for
parking spaces in town, that will mean less revenue for local authorities and
car-park operators.
When people are no longer in control of their cars they will not need driver
insurance so goodbye to motor insurers and brokers. Traffic accidents now cause
about 2m hospital visits a year in America alone, so autonomous vehicles will
mean much less work for emergency rooms and orthopaedic wards. Roads will need
fewer signs, signals, guard rails and other features designed for the human
driver; their makers will lose business too. When commuters can work, rest or
play while the car steers itself, longer commutes will become more bearable,
the suburbs will spread even farther and house prices in the sticks will rise.
When self-driving cars can ferry children to and from school, more mothers may
be freed to re-enter the workforce. The popularity of the country pub, which
has been undermined by strict drink-driving laws, may be revived. And so on.
Getting there from here
All this may sound far-fetched. But the self-driving car is already arriving in
dribs and drabs. Cars are on sale that cruise on autopilot, slot themselves
into awkward parking spaces and brake automatically to avert collisions.
Motorists seem ready to pay for such features, encouraging carmakers to keep
working on them. The armed forces are also sponsoring research on autonomous
vehicles. Some insurers offer discounts to drivers who put a black box in their
cars to measure how safely they drive: as cars computers get better than
humans at avoiding accidents, self-drive mode may become the norm, and manual
driving uninsurable.
The first airline to operate a regular international schedule began in 1919,
only 16 years after the Wright Brothers showed that people really could fly in
heavier-than-air planes. For those businesses that stand to gain and lose from
the driverless car, the future may arrive even quicker.