August 12 2019 Review of: Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth? by Alan Weisman -- (c) 2013 Actually heard about this book on the Collapse Chronicles [0] Youtube channel. At 513 pages it was a bit of a brick and took several library renewals to get through. But what a great, well-researched book Alan Weisman [1] wrote; everyone should read it. Essentially Countdown is a fairly comprehensive survey and analysis of human overpopulation around the world, its consequences and the various mitigation strategies employed to address it. There is a brief historical review of our numbers and the natural forces that kept them in check, namely disease, depredation, available energy. Only with the development of the germ theory, antibiotics, vaccines, and of course the mass utilization of fossil fuels did human populations significantly swell. Stepping back, the author also addresses the ultimate impossibility of endless growth and how technology is unlikely to help prop our numbers up much longer, especially in the face of unstoppable climate change. Weisman also points out that to-date there is no scalable replacement for our rapidly depleting fossil fuels, which our global civilization currently uses in massive amounts and has in large measure made the feeding of almost 8 billion humans possible. The issue of overpopulation was actually recognized early on, most famously by Thomas Robert Malthus, an English economist (1766-1834), more recently by Paul and Anne Ehrlich [2] ("The Population Bomb") and Dennis and Donella Meadows [3] ("Limits to Growth"). All have also been endlessly slammed by growth-oriented leaders and their economic theorists. Weisman apparently met several times with the Ehrlich's as well as several of their professional acquaintances while researching the book and gives accounts of their work. Lastly, Weisman includes some interesting history of the birth control movement, which has a bit of a dark side in that it coincided with the Eugenics [4] movement and several of it's early proponents were involved in both, particularly Margaret Sanger [5], the founder of Planned Parenthood. The author also looks at the push-back to birth control efforts, particularly the Catholic Church and how it's dubious doctrine of "papal infallibility" cemented its stance. Fortunately Weisman's research finds many Catholics ignore the pope; in the US 98% of Catholic women are making use of some form of birth control. Interestingly there has been greater variation in religious opinion among followers of Islam which lacks a central authority. Countdown surveys many countries and regions and most get a chapter. But there are many chapters, too many to include in this review, so just a sampling follows. Weisman, being Jewish, starts out looking at the state of Israel and Palestine, both significantly over-populated, apparently intentionally. Both orthodox Jews and Palestinians have been encouraged by their community and/or political leaders to engage in what is referred to in the book as a "war of the wombs", with the goal of overwhelming the other side with shear numbers so as to gain numerical dominance of the region. It hasn't gone well for either side, but the environment has been the biggest loser with many species going extinct, pollution, and severe habitat loss. The region is also under severe water stress. The water desalination plants use a lot of energy and generate piles of salt that can't be easily disposed of. Israel is also a critical stop-over for Western Europe's largest bird migration; its collapse would be felt from Africa to Northern Europe. As for mitigation, there doesn't appear to be much effort on either side, though economic hardship tends to push down on growth rates. There are many facets to the Israeli-Palestine conflict but over-population is a rarely mentioned key driver. China today is on a tear with it's Belt and Road [6] initiative, pouring record amounts of concrete and in general using resources as if there is no tomorrow, which may well be the case. Nonetheless, had China not addressed their overpopulation they may well enduring endless famine instead. The One Child policy was implemented shortly after Ehrlich's "The Population Bomb" came out which apparently China's leaders took very seriously. Being authoritarians, not much attention went to the social aspects of the policy's implementation. Still, the need for to address population growth was understood by most Chinese, many who had suffered through famines and hardship. Weisman spends a bit of time covering the actual design of the One Child policy which was actually done by a pair of rocket scientists. As is well-known, there were many instances of forced abortions, excessive fines and punishments lobbed against violators. Most of the abuses seem to have been committed at the local government level which has high levels of corruption. But the policy was successful, so much so that it was initially relaxed, then completely phased out. Most Chinese couples voluntarily choose to have only one child. Unless they change their ways along the way, China will peak in 2030 at 1.5 billion then begin rapidly declining; the goal is around 700 million. In the 1960s Thailand was on it's way to bursting at its seams. Women were having 7 or more children. Mechai Viravaidya [7], an economist tasked with improving Thailand's economic prospects quickly realized that no plan would have any chance of succeeding without addressing the country's rapid population growth. Mechai, a natural entertainer -- he would go on to host a TV show -- formulated a campaign that adeptly leveraged the power of humor and basic marketing methods to break through the social taboos concerning open sexual discussion to convince Thais that smaller families where good for their health, wealth and the country. Condoms were the main focus; he would tell jokes and make balloon animals with them during his family planning presentations. That Buddhism has no tenets specifically addressing family planning or birth control likely helped. Nonetheless, having Buddhist monks bless birth control pills helped reassure those concerned about sin. Mechai's efforts also focused on incentivizing women to have fewer kids via low interest loans encouraging their entrepreneurial spirits. It was a huge success; Thailand's fertility rate is around 1.5, below replacement, all via voluntary means. In general, the success stories all have the following in common: - a focus on empowering women via reproductive choice, education and equal employment opportunity - availability of affordable birth control methods - availability of safe abortion services when birth control fails - availability of affordable basic health services, particularly those that reduce child mortality Most stories throughout the book were more nuanced; some countries initially made improvements only to slide later, some had cultures that are seemingly immutable even when they know they have a problem. Still others got their population growth under control only to replace it with an even more intractable over-consumption problem, something Weisman feels is just as important to the planet's state of overshoot: - top 7% of global population consumes 50% of all resources - bottom 50% of global population consumes 7% of all resources Ultimately, even though 75% of fertile women in the developing world are now using some form of family planning, the author feels we are collectively heading for a population crash. The lack of meaningful action to address global warming has baked in a minimum of 2 degrees C warming within the next decade or so; that translates to a roughly 20% reduction in cereal crop yields at a time when an extra 1 billion mouths expected. At current levels of food waste an extra 1 billion humans would actually require a doubling of crop production, something rather unlikely to happen. What is more plausible and what the UN has recently called for, is a shift away from meat consumption. All told, Weisman states meat production and consumption generates 50% of total greenhouse gas emissions, absolutely huge figure if true; there seems to be a good deal of debate on the exact amount [8]. And of course climate is only one of several planetary thresholds being crossed. Losses in flora and fauna biodiversity, disruptions of the nitrogen cycle, fresh water depletion and pollution are some others that have already been crossed and may result in irreversible changes to the living world. All are exasperated by our shear numbers which continue to grow. Weisman points out that, though at current rates we are projected to reach 10 billion by 2100, if everyone suddenly adopted a one child policy that number would instead drop to 1.6 billion, the world population level in 1900. That won't happen of course but it illustrates how the math works; rates change non-linearly with the deviation from the replacement rate. Incidentally Weisman feels an actual sustainable level is around an even 1 billion, a number in line with most other scientist that study such things. The author concludes that, one way or another, our numbers will be coming down; either we do it or Nature will. - - Refs: [0] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLXYur8DuVcARXbFhYs4ecg [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Weisman [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Meadows [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_eugenics [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Sanger [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechai_Viravaidya [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_meat_production