Scientists fear impact of Asian pollutants on U.S.

By Les Blumenthal, McClatchy NewspapersSun Aug 31, 6:00 AM ET

WASHINGTON From 500 miles in space, satellites track brown clouds of dust,

soot and other toxic pollutants from China and elsewhere in Asia as they stream

across the Pacific and take dead aim at the western U.S.

A fleet of tiny, specially equipped unmanned aerial vehicles, launched from an

island in the East China Sea 700 or so miles downwind of Beijing , are flying

through the projected paths of the pollution taking chemical samples and

recording temperatures, humidity levels and sunlight intensity in the clouds of

smog.

On the summit of 9,000-foot Mt. Bachelor in central Oregon and near sea level

at Cheeka Peak on Washington state's Olympic Peninsula , monitors track the

pollution as it arrives in America.

By some estimates more than 10 billion pounds of airborne pollutants from Asia

ranging from soot to mercury to carbon dioxide to ozone reach the U.S.

annually. The problem is only expected to worsen: Some Chinese officials have

warned that pollution in their country could quadruple in the next 15 years.

While some scientists are less certain, others say the Asian pollution could

destabilize weather patterns across the North Pacific, mask the effects of

global warming, reduce rainfall in the American West and compromise efforts to

meet air-pollution standards.

" East Asia pollution aerosols could impose far reaching environmental impacts

at continental, hemispheric and global scales because of long-range transport,"

according to a report earlier this year in the Journal of Geophysical Research

. The report said that a "warm conveyor belt" lifts the pollutants into the

upper troposphere the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere over Asia , where

winds can bring it to the U.S. in a week or less.

The National Academies of Science, at the request of the Environmental

Protection Agency , NASA , the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

and in consultation with the State Department , has assembled a panel to

examine the problem and its impact. Its report is due next summer.

"Everyone realizes this is an issue of growing importance," said Laurie Geller

of the National Academies of Science. "This is very challenging science with

lots of complexities and a lot of uncertainties."

Though the problem of Asian air pollution has been known for years, no one has

a handle on how much is blown in and what it includes. Scientists say

Washington state and Oregon might be feeling the brunt of the effects.

"This pollution is distributed on average equally from northern California to

British Columbia ," said Dan Jaffe , a professor of environmental science at

the University of Washington's Bothell campus. "Anyone who has gone out to

measure it has found something."

Particulates such as dust and soot, along with heavy metals, pesticides, PCBs,

mercury, ozone, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide have all

been found. Jaffe said the pollutants can't be tracked to a single source such

as a particular coal-burning plant, but their "chemical fingerprints" can point

to a specific country.

Viruses, bacteria and fungi also can be transported on dust particles, though,

so far, they've been found only on the dust and sand blowing off African

deserts, not Asian ones.

Mercury, one of the most hazardous pollutants from the hundreds of coal-burning

electricity generating plants in China and elsewhere in Asia , is of particular

concern. One study estimated a fifth of the mercury entering Oregon's

Willamette River comes from overseas, with China as the mostly likely source.

Jaffe, a member of the National Academies of Science panel studying the issue,

is wary of such reports. But he still estimates that as much as 30 percent of

the mercury deposited in the U.S. from airborne sources comes from Asia , with

the highest concentrations in Alaska and other western states.

"Ten years ago, there was a lot of skepticism," Jaffe said. "People assumed the

atmosphere scrubbed itself and didn't believe these pollutants could travel

thousands of miles."

The pollution from Asia will only make it increasingly difficult for the U.S.

to meet stricter and stricter air quality standards, said Lyatt Jaegle, a

professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle .

"It is only expected to get worse," Jaegle said of the Asian air pollution

reaching the U.S. She added that scientists have discovered the problem isn't

unique to the Pacific Rim . "Air pollution is not a local or regional problem,

it is a global problem."

Days after a major dust storm in the Gobi Desert in Asia , visibility in the

Grand Canyon was obscured. Dust from deserts in North Africa has reached

Florida . U.S. air pollution can reach across the Atlantic to Europe , even as

pollution from Europe can circle the globe and reach the U.S.

Air can circulate around the world in three weeks or less. The National

Academies of Science is not limiting itself to pollution from Asia and will

study the phenomenon worldwide.

"It's one atmosphere," said Mark Schoeberl , project scientist for NASA Aura

satellite program.

Schoeberl said his and other satellites have "transformed" what scientists know

about the Earth and can provide a near real-time snapshot of the track of

airborne pollution. When the price of gasoline spikes, Jaffe said satellites

can detect an increase in sulfur dioxide levels at Saudi Arabian refineries .

They've also helped confirm global dimming as sunlight reaching the planet's

surface is decreasing because the airborne pollution reflects it back to space.

In some places, like Israel , sunlight has decreased 10 percent, Jaffe said.

The pollution also can mask the effect of global warming by reflecting the

sunlight, said Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a climate researcher at the Scripps

Institution of Oceanography in California who's heading the team of scientists

flying the unmanned aerial vehicles off Korea this summer.

The UAVs started flying as China shut down factories and banned automobiles

from Beijing during the Summer Olympics and are still flying as pollution

levels increase.

"It's a once in a lifetime opportunity," Ramanathan said.

The reduction in sunlight could be increasing rainfall or it might be

decreasing rainfall because of less evaporation off the ocean, Ramanathan said.

In addition, the soot falling on mountains in the western U.S. could increase

snowmelt, he said.

"There are a lot of questions and few answers," Ramanathan said. "We shouldn't

be pointing fingers. Everyone else is some one else's backyard. This is a

global problem."