By Tom de Castella & Virginia Brown BBC News Magazine
A girl born in the UK today has a one-in-three chance of reaching 100 and a boy
has a one-in-four chance. But can people really comprehend what that means?
The biblical figure Methuselah supposedly lived for 969 years. But old age
isn't for everyone as the Who demonstrated in their 1965 hit My Generation with
its provocative line "hope I die before I get old".
Nearly a half century later, young Britons are facing - if not the fate of
Methuselah - then a life of scarcely believable length.
It's not just the recently born who will live longer. The projections from the
Department for Work and Pensions suggest that more than a fifth of women
currently aged 40, and about 14% of their male equivalents, will reach their
100th birthday.
Inspirational centenarians
Comedian George Burns died at 100
Artist Alphaeus Philemon Cole was still active as an artist past the age of
100. Died aged 112
Ivy Bean was thought to be the world's oldest Twitter and Facebook user. Died
aged 104
Narcissus of Jerusalem, Christian patriarch of the city in the 3rd Century was
still reportedly going strong at the age of 116
Nearly man: Venetian Doge Enrico Dandolo led the sacking of Constantinople in
1204 at the age of 96 or 97. He was also blind
Clocking up three figures has previously been regarded as remarkable enough to
merit a telegram from the Queen. But soon she or her successor may have to
raise the age requirement.
By 2066, there will be half a million centenarians and some even think the DWP
figures err on the conservative side. A study in the Lancet last year suggested
that half of babies born after 2000 will reach 100.
The practical issue is pensions. "We simply can't look to our grandparents'
experience of retirement as a model for our own," says pensions minister Steve
Webb. "We will live longer and we will have to save more."
Our ageing populations require a revolution in the way that social and economic
policy operates, according to Joseph Coughlin, an age researcher at MIT. "We
need a vision that says ageing is not just about the frail," he told the
Financial Times last month. "Ageing is about all of us, and how we keep people
productive for as long as possible."
The challenge is as much conceptual as practical.
Through the eyes of a centenarian
Evelyn Blackshaw
Evelyn Blackshaw never considered becoming old - let alone living a century.
At 20, her concept of "old" was 24. "When you're young, it's a long while away
and you just don't really think about it," she says.
If someone asked in her youthful days if she'd like to make it to 100, she'd
have replied: "No thanks! It's nice to be this old at times, but you also start
picking up the snags."
Born on 19 July 1911 in Bow, she grew up in East London, marrying Alfred
Blackshaw in 1945.
She looks back fondly on her days at Andersons Rubber Company and recalls the
time Winston Churchill peered in the shop window.
She keeps her mind and body active through puzzles, reading and dancing - her
favourite dance is the quickstep and she prefers "jazzy" songs.
"We have to keep our minds on the route."
And along with dance, she has stayed active by gardening - she fancies Begonias
and roses. "And oh, I love bananas."
As Leon Trotsky put it: "Old age is the most unexpected of all the things that
happen to a man." Behavioural thinkers believe that most people are incapable
of imagining themselves getting old, one reason why people fail to invest
sufficiently in a pension.
The theory of "discounting" - delaying payment in return for a bigger financial
reward - has been used to explain this.
In one US experiment, researchers put five-year-olds in a room with a
marshmallow. The children were told that if it could wait 15 minutes without
touching it, they would be offered a second marshmallow. Despite the
inducement, the vast majority of the children ate it before the time limit was
up.
It underlines the idea that humans distinguish between our present and future
selves. "It's been shown that people's identification with themselves
diminishes as they look into the future," says Daniel Read, professor of
behavioural science at Warwick Business School. "It comes down to not caring
about ourselves in the future."
Living longer is one thing, but the quality of the extra years is what counts,
he believes. And no-one knows if these extra years will be spent working for
longer and being mentally and physically active, or finding oneself frail and
bed-ridden.
"We may not be able to expect people to work much longer than they already
are," Read warns. "If the productive years remain about the same but the
lifespan expands that becomes a major issue for society."
The novelist Martin Amis argued last year that the answer might be "euthanasia
booths on every street corner". As he explained at a public Q&A session the
swelling ranks of the elderly would not only be a drain on resources for
younger generations, but lead to an undignified end to one's life.
The biologist Lewis Wolpert, who wrote about old age in his recent book You're
Looking Very Well, dismisses Amis's position.
A young person's view - Amanda Agius, 22
Amanda Agius
Start Quote
I don't want to exceed 50. I'm afraid of ageing, because of the way you look
and the fact that you have to depend on people. I want to be able to do things
myself
Amanda Agius 22-year-old
He says it wasn't until he retired, aged 75, that he first felt old. Indeed our
definition of old, advances further up the age range as we do. Now aged 81, he
has accepted he counts as old.
"The point about age is that things change," he explains. "The most striking
thing is that in the street everyone passes me now - I've slowed down."
He has begun to forget things, names and faces, and Alzheimer's is a real fear.
"I do think about death every now and again. It's not terrible being old. But I
miss work and being around colleagues and students."
He is sceptical about the latest figures. But if a significant number of the
population really do start living past a hundred, it may not be something to
celebrate. "I don't think they will be fulfilling lives. Who's going to employ
you at 80 or 90?"
He never expected to get old. "As a young man I never gave getting old a
moment's thought." But this is no bad thing, he believes. There is no point
worrying about ageing when you're young. Best to enjoy your youth and deal with
the aches, pains, and memory loss when it happens.
Steve Jones, senior research fellow at University College London, says that in
evolutionary terms the old are irrelevant.
Start Quote
I don't like the thought of being old. It's sad - not being able to walk how
you should. You sort of start looking a little lifeless - I don't want to
struggle
Azadeh Eatessami 27-year-old
"The point of evolution is preserving DNA. A chick is the egg's way of making
another egg. Once the DNA molecule is passed on, the chick becomes almost
irrelevant to the process."
Within the animal kingdom, apart from a few species like elephants, extreme old
age is a rarity. Even species we think of as being genetically close to
ourselves, like chimpanzees, die young through fighting each other, lack of
food or attacks by predators.
But humans are going through scarcely credible advance in longevity. As
primitive hunter gatherers, our life expectancy was in the 20s or 30s, Prof
Jones guesses.
During Shakespeare's time only one in three children made it to the age of 21.
By Charles Darwin's era, the rate had improved to one in two. Now for the first
time, there are more people in Britain over 45 than under 45.
"The progress has been astonishing," he notes. For the last 50 or so years life
expectancy has been increasing at a rate of six hours a day."
Everyone says it can't last, and yet we keep getting older and older. Who's to
say it's going to stop?