Silver linings
--------------

The following will be all too obvious to anybody reading this here and
now, but I'll establish some context first, so that this post makes
some sense as a standalone document in the future: the world is in the
grip of a pandemic.  The novel coronavirus COVID19 has infected over a
quarter of a million people world wide, and killed over 10,000.  It's
early days, and both of those numbers will get much higher.  Most
major developed nations are seeing sustained supermarket shortages of
toilet paper, hand sanitiser and staple foods with long shelf lives.
Many nations are imposing extreme measures to try to slow the spread
of the disease - borders are closing, non-essential businesses are
being forcibly closed, public gatherings above certain threshold sizes
- in some parts of the world as low as 5 or 10 people - are being
imposed.

Most people's attention, understandably, is on staying healthy and
slowing the spread of disease.  I'm not an expert, but I strongly
expect that, on a longer timeline, the *medical* aspect of this
pandemic is going to be less of a big deal than the socioeconomic
aspect of it.  Obviously the travel, transport and tourism industries
will be hit hard and fast.  Some airlines have already gone bankrupt,
others are begging for government assistance to avoid that.  Many
people have already lost jobs.  But these industries are probably just
the tip of the iceberg.  It seems to me that a global recession is
more or less inevitable.  The modern world is built, in a major way,
on deep supply chains and ideas like just-in-time logistics, and on
constant, maximum speed growth and consumption.  A lot of systems that
rely on this are going to be demolished by the consequences of this
pandemic and they will take a long time to recover.

There's no doubt at all that this is a genuine tragedy.  I feel kind
of guilty even trying to suggest that we should try to perhaps find
upsides to this.  It seems trite, and like an easy thing to say as a
relatively young and healthy person whose job is secure.  Reluctantly,
I proceed anyway...

A small plus is that this experience might make "prepping" a little
more normal.  Even the simple practice of having 72 hours worth of
essential supplies ready and on hand all the time is extremely
sensible and reasonable, and is explicitly recommended by the civil
defence or equivalent authorities of even the richest, most stable
countries in the world - and yet, almost *nobody* does it, and people
who do do it are liable to keep quiet about it for fear of being
branded as weird or paranoid.  This is ridiculous, but it's
understandable, because most people have never had the direct,
hands-on experience of needing this level of preparedness and neither
has any living member of their family.  After COVID19, this will no
longer be true for most of the planet for decades to come.  The fact
that apparently reliable, stable aspects of daily life can disappear
for unexpected reasons on short notice will actually be a concrete
fact in everybody's mind.  Basic preparedness might start to be seen
as the common sense it is, instead of a delusional eccentricity.

But truth be told, I am hoping for a lot more than this.

In the coming months, many people would ordinarily start and end their
day with a long and stressful commute, maybe driving through terrible
traffic or maybe jammed into a train or bus, will not be having to put
up with this extra dose of stress.  Some of them may gain an hour of
even more of extra time in the day, even if they are working from home
for their usual hours.  Maybe they'll be able to use that extra time
to get a full(er) night's sleep, regularly, for the first time in
years.  Many people will also be eating a lot less fast food or junk
food.  If people are really forced to hole themselves up, and/or if
supermarket supply chains really break down, they'll be eating a lot
of simple, basic food like rice, pasta, beans and bread, and they'll
be cooking it themselves, at home, with their families.  On the
weekends, people will have to entertain themselves at home, with
things they already have.  In short, a lot of people are going to
undergo some fairly intensive involuntary downshifting[1].

I realise that this downshift will take place against a background of
people dying, getting sick, losing jobs, losing businesses.  I'm under
no illusion that this will be a happy "back to basics" Kumbaya camp.
But I kind of hope that a lot of people will notice that in some small
but real ways their lives actually improve as so much of the "rat
race" slows down or fades away.  Maybe when the time comes for us to
go back to normal, some of these people will question whether we
actually want some parts of the old normal to be part of the new
normal.  Maybe people will realise that some of the "non-essential
businesses" which were forcibly closed during the pandemic actually
are, literally, not essential, and that if they cause human workers to
lead miserable lifes, or have substantial negative environmental
impacts (already - already! - we are seeing reports of positive
environmental impacts of people staying at home more), maybe we should
just leave them behind.

Reading sloum's recent entry[2] on his early experiences coping with
the pandemic make me think perhaps I am being ludicrously naive and
optimistic about this whole thing.  Maybe most people will be super
relieved to go back to exactly what normal was three months ago.  I
guess we'll see.

Best wishes to everyone in Gopherspace, and their loved ones, in
weathering what is yet to come.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downshifting_(lifestyle)
[2] gopher://circumlunar.space:70/0/~sloum/phlog/20200318-21.txt