________________________________________________________________________________
I generally agree with the author. I don't have hard evidence but basically feel that the culture, ethos, magic, whatever you want to call it is gone. Does this mean innovation is dead? Of course not! As the author pointed, it will just likely be more spread out.
Also, I think it's important to appreciate that the formation and growth of Silicon Valley was a remarkably special thing but was bound to eventually hit the diminishing returns phase of faster compute, faster internet, smarter software, etc. Silicon Valley started with a transformative and enabling technology (the transistor) and from there we built a remarkable hardware and software ecosystem over the span of a few decades around that technology. Those seem to be the two elements in order to 'replicate' SV: a transformative technology that spurs an ecosystem of technologies, all of which interconnect and benefit from each others innovation.
I generally agree with the author, but his timeline is completely wrong. Silicon Valley as an ethos and as a concentration of free-wheeling globally-uniquely-great-at-their-jobs engineers in aggressive, innovative companies has been dead since at least the late 90s.
Naming Musk as a key example of innovation just shows how far we have fallen. Contrast with SGI, Sun, 3dFX, Nvidia, Cisco, maybe Google, etc. Yes, many of these are unglamourous or dead now, but their lives are totally different than the Teslas (heavily reliant on government subsidies), the Ubers (mostly just matchmaking playing chicken with regulations), and so on.
> a transformative technology that spurs an ecosystem of technologies, all of which interconnect and benefit from each others innovation.
Biotech, especially gene editing, comes to mind as a fast developing field. However, because it's health related, extensive testing and regulations means it will never evolve at the same pace as hardware and software did.
Maaaybe?
The _one_ silver lining of this catastrophe of covid is that the FDA process has been turned up to 11. There is some hope that it'll stay that way after/if a vaccine is made. The ModeRNA vaccine is looking to be some amazing stuff and it would have taken at least a decade to get through before covid.
CRISPR-CAS9 technology and a faster FDA should result in some very good outcomes for all humans. The biotech centers of San Diego, Boston, NC Research Triangle, and Denver should see growth from that kind of a boom.
Come together in SV, Big Crunch.
Covid-19 was a biological/social Big Bang?
Strange loops indeed.
Yes Amazon (which is not based in Silicon Valley) made online shopping better. However, it is fundamentally just another middleman, and will not stand the test of time.
Personally, I think Amazon's legacy will be AWS rather than online shopping. More than anyone else they've turned computing power into a utility. Like electricity this has made whole new types of businesses possible.
Edit: Still reading the article and want to note I don't mean this as a crticism. I'm really enjoying this story.
an innovative way to become a middleman, renting people free software, re-centralizing computing power, and un-democratizing hardware
The problem with most of this crypto-anarchist rhetoric is that it establishes a value system that does not reflect the realities of the real world.
decentralization, democracy = good and the opposite = bad runs up against fundamental value propositions of economies of scale and specialization
crypto? I thought I was being overt.
Amazon’s economy of scale _does_ capture a lot of value. The question becomes: how well does economic value align with our human values?
One of my best friends mentors software development interns at Amazon. We talk a lot, they’re using it as mechanism to empower people who had otherwise been trapped in low-wage jobs, and generally I think that’s a good thing. Recently they tell me that one of their new interns was, until recently, a practicing medical doctor, in another country. Having this person optimizing user experience on a shopping system cannot possibly be as socially valuable as treating disease. But here we are.
There’s another article on HN today questioning whether the current crop of tech companies embody the old Silicon Valley values that created our field. I think the answer is: they cannot possibly embody them all because some of the core values of hacker culture are contradictory, and a strong tradition of anti-capitalism, radical democratization, and anti-authoritanism go back to at least the 1960s computer programmer culture, maybe even further back
I was reacting the specific 'decentralization' mantra that is a linguistic artifact of cryptocurrencies.
> how well does economic value align with our human values?
I couldn't begin to define what 'our human values' even means.
> one of their new interns was, until recently, a practicing medical doctor
Is your argument that there is no person practicing medicine who would produce more utility for society by writing software at Amazon? Because that seems like a pretty extreme position.
> Having this person optimizing user experience on a shopping system cannot possibly be as socially valuable as treating disease.
It's possible that that person finds more fulfillment from programming than from treating disease and that's all that should matter. People are free and should not be forced to work in some field they don't want to because somebody else decides that's more socially valuable.
It's not Amazon's problem that some government assholes perpetuate a system in which a medical doctor can't earn more than $2,000 in 20 days, or a patient can't pay $3 to see the doctor.
Not all innovations need to be what we consider modern tech. I've always viewed Amazon as the modern equivalent of what Sears was, what Sears did with railroad and mail order Amazon did similar with the internet. It will likely last at least 50 years.
Though you are right, I think the part that will survive the longest and have the largest impact will be AWS more than the Amazon marketplace itself.
Reminds me of this quote from Michael S. Malone in The Valley of Heart's Delight (2002)
When will it end? I knowingly predicted Silicon Valley's imminent demise in 1980, 1985, 1989, and 1994. Eventually, I learned my lesson. The rest of the media world obviously has not--regularly indulging in yet another paroxysm of features about how the Valley is losing its crown to Austin, Orange County, Bangalore, even Boise.
Perhaps. All I know is just months after the last time I predicted the Valley's end, I found myself regularly having lunch in a Chinese restuartant in Campbell with two young entrepreneurs... The company they were building was called Ebay.
Housing in Silicon Valley is much more expensive than it was then. It’s hard to live let alone innovate. It’s a FAANG goldmine where engineers are the miners.
Whatever did I just read?
_For example, Facebook is not an innovation. Facebook did not make socializing better. It made it worse. Was it at one point a new web site? Yes. Does it make money? Yes. But it is not innovative._
This is surprisingly hollow. Facebook took Instagram and WhatsApp and basically put it on steroids. Those apps couldn't have possibly been the behemoths they are now without Facebook's ample innovative, world-class sales, marketing, engineering weight behind it [0][1].
_Next consider Amazon. Yes Amazon (which is not based in Silicon Valley) made online shopping better. However, it is fundamentally just another middleman, and will not stand the test of time. True innovation, like the silicon chip itself, stands the test of time._
No no no. Amazon is probably one of the most innovative companies right now. You don't go from selling books to building a wildly profitable IT Enterprise business to winning the Emmys by resting on your laurels or being complacent.
[0]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJl27KvUDn0&t=34m47s
[1]
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18065897
His take on Amazon is incredibly ignorant. People act as if Prime 2 day shipping was a simple business decision because that's all they see. They can't see the supply chain optimization behind the scenes that allow this to be economical.
Not to mention that Amazon invented the cloud, and that was built off the back of Bezos' demand that all software at Amazon have interoperable APIs.
WhatsApp had half a billion active users before Facebook. They were doing just fine. That’s why Facebook paid over $20 billion for it.
exactly this. arguably they've probably trojaned or backdoored the e2e encryption by now, after buying it too.
e2e encryption was only added after being acquired. Not sure why FB leadership would undermine the effort that they helped support in the first place
Perhaps because FB leadership had nothing to do with the decision in the first place? When WA was acquired they maintained fierce independence and would not interact with FB unless absolutely necessary. No code was shared, WA kept its old offices away from the FB campus, they were for all intents and purposes operating as individual companies.
After WA added e2e it became politically possible within FB to add the same to Messenger (as long as it behind a few conversation gateways that made it hidden for most users) but FB leadership did _not_ support adding e2e to WA and certain groups continued to fight against adding it to Messenger because it was going to close off a channel for the ads team to pick up signal by spying on user conversations.
> _They were doing just fine._
The YouTube video I linked to is Neeraj Arora, early WhatsApp employee, on what Facebook's acquisition meant for WhatsApp.
Does it discuss the part where Brian Acton (co-founder of WA) donated 50million to Signal because of how badly Facebook will distort Whatsapp's user base and tech?
That's late-stage Facebook. The interesting part of Facebook is when they beat Myspace.
> Facebook took Instagram and WhatsApp and basically put it on steroids.
Ok, I’m tracking.
>Those apps couldn't have possibly been the behemoths they are now without Facebook's ample innovative, world-class sales, marketing, engineering weight behind it [0][1].
Wait what? How on earth did you land there? From your own video, Facebook left WhatsApp alone, and the value they got from Facebook was increased velocity. Absolutely nothing in that video indicates they would have failed or not continued the trajectory they were already on, it would’ve just taken a bit longer and probably had a different back-end.
Neeraj Arora: "You saw the result of that [Facebook's acquisition] because when we sold the company [WhatsApp] in 2014 we had 450M monthly active users and I think we doubled or tripled in a few years after that. So, it kind of shows that our speed of execution went up... it was just that we were able to hire aggressively, we were able to get a lot of other technical help from Facebook on the storage, on the server side of the things. They brought a lot of those things that we were trying to build ourselves that they already had... So, combining the two really turbo-charged the growth of WhatsApp. So, I think I'd say execution was flawless in terms of the deal."
> _...it would’ve just taken a bit longer_
Yeah, we are in-agreement: "[Facebook] put its growth on steroids".
>Those apps couldn't have possibly been the behemoths they are now without Facebook'
You said they couldn't have possibly been the behemoth's they are. That's just patently false, their growth trajectory pre-facebook would've had them just as big as they are today 6 YEARS later. Post-facebook their growth actually stalled, it took them almost 4 years to double their user base from 2016 to 2020 - previous to that they were doubling every year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/260819/number-of-monthly...
https://growthhackers.com/growth-studies/whatsapp
> _You said they couldn't have possibly been the behemoth's they are. That's just patently false..._
We may never know what might have actually happened but the Stratechery article I linked to in my original comment has this tit-bit (albeit related to Instagram):
_...Instagram was a product, and its business model was venture capital funding. To be sure, this wouldn’t be the case forever, but on April 9, 2012, the road from popular product to viable company was a long and arduous one. Instagram would not only need to continue growing its user base, it would also have to scale its infrastructure, figure out a business model (ok fine, advertising), build up tools to support that business model (first a sales team, then a self-serve model, plus tracking and targeting capabilities), all while fighting off larger and more established companies — particularly Facebook — that were waking up to the threat Instagram posed to their hold on user attention._
_Or Systrom and Instagram could offload all of those responsibilities to Facebook and continue being "extraordinary product leaders", and pocket $1 billion to boot..._
_The difference from Zuckerberg — Instagram’s real CEO — is stark. Facebook launched in February, 2004, and sold its first ad two months later. True, “Facebook Flyers” bear little resemblance to the News Feed ads that power the company today, but Zuckerberg’s immediate instinct to build not just a product but a company is notable._
I'm leery to put advances in sales and marketing in the same category as engineering. An engineering advance adds total value, value that was not there before.
Advances in sales and marketing categorically don't do that. By definition they move value around that was pre-existing.
I agree that it's ignorant to call everything outside of programming and product ideation non-innovative. Though also, much of those giant companies' successes come from simply having a critical mass of dollars. At some point, it's sheer brute force.
Maybe an article that is just slightly wrong, just slightly uninformed is the same kind of moneymaker as facebook.
You’re confusing being good at business/marketing with being innovative.
You're confusing being innovative with being innovative in software.
Nope, I’m reading the actual article and using the author’s definition of innovation: creating technology that makes our lives better as human beings. Not a small group of people making something that makes them a ton of money regardless of it being innovative as per the definition above.
Innovation, for better or worse, need not make human lives better.
The author doesn’t seem to understand that growing into a trillion dollar company doesn’t require extreme innovation and cool tech.
It’s fascinating that you are at the very same time not understanding what he is saying, absolutely illustrating exactly what he is saying.
No, he's saying that Silicon Valley was originally about extreme innovation and cool tech, not multi-trillion dollar companies
That sounds like the kind of thing someone wearing rose-tinted glasses would say. The author even mentions William Shockley but fails to note that the man was authoritarian and divisive to the point that his best employees left him to form their own company.
The Silicon Valley of the 20th century had its share of politics and backstabbing, and certainly money was a big deal; Shockley's former employees enlisted the help of a businessman and investor to found their new company, Fairchild Semiconductor (named after the investor, not after any of the engineers!).
I'll absolutely agree that many of the big names in SV software businesses are greedy outfits that are actively making the world worse, but it's incredibly disingenuous to suggest that's all it is, and ignorant of history to suggest this is anything new.
The piece should be titled "How I Was Naive About Life and Finally Realized It's Not All Roses".
I’m referring to their claims that that not innovating means not standing the test of time. Facebook very well could exist and stay profitable for the next 50 years without a single new product or feature.
Dubious. They're doing all they can to kill it with censorship. It takes more than just new tech to keep something afloat - you also have to treat your userbase well.
I admit I'm not the most poetic of people, and often have trouble reading between the lines or finding deeper implications, but this:
I would put the precise date as November 7, 2012, the day Dustin Curtis published his infamous blog post “The Best”. [...] When I first read it I thought it was brilliant satire. Then when I realized he was serious, I decided to leave myself. Dustin and his ilk had completely perverted the message of Steve Jobs.
_completely baffled me_. I don't get this, at all! I read that mentioned post, and it looked to me like an appreciation of working for quality that went beyond simply producing goods to be sold. I feel weirdly stupid because I cannot figure out what TFA is trying to imply there.
I recall that post being pretty polarizing on HN. I think PG himself showed up and ranted about how the people calling it consumerist schlock had it all wrong, and this was a sign of HN's decline or something. Anyway personally I found the post fairly repulsive. It reminded me of my thought patterns during some of my grossest excursions into materialist obsession - spending hours researching what "the best" thing to buy is, when I would have been much, much happier just getting something at random than agonizing about it - or just not buying anything at all.
The Best discussion:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4755470
I thought that this article was going talk about how 2020 broke apart SV and caused everyone to scatter. But to say it was 2012? No way. That totally misses out on Uber, Stripe, Coinbase, Lyft, Plaid, and many more.
I think the point is that Uber, etc, are capitalizing on the _myth_ of SV without sharing the ethos that created it
The genius of Travis Kalanick is twofold:
1) Going global as quickly as possible. He aggressively moved into a lot of countries as quickly as possible with the same formula, and for the most part it worked.
2) He created an entire industry by having the balls to lower prices to the point where it fundamentally changed transportation. Everyone ubered everywhere (before the pandemic) and I know many people who sold their cars because ubering was cheaper.
The downside was that both are extremely capital intensive, which showed in how much money they raised. But I would say both techniques are extremely innovative and what most startups these days are trying to strive for.
> The downside was that both are extremely capital intensive
There is another small downside: They still need to be profitable.
Is there anything to this _genius_ other than recognizing that he could get VCs to fund predatory pricing almost indefinitely?
Kalanick is a billionaire, many employees in SF are multi-millionaires, and millions of drivers around the world made a lot of money driving on the platform and continue to do so. I heard in Brazil, Uber helped 300,000 drivers alone make money during their very deep recession. I think that sounds like a genius to me.
Are all billionaires Geniuses then?
If it turns out in the end to just have been about transferring money from investors to Kalanick and employees, I’ll grant that it’s a clever scheme.
I never said all billionaires are geniuses. You are not engaging in a sincere conversation.
I never said you did. I _asked_ you whether you thought that.
You used the fact that he was a billionaire to qualify that he is a genius, so it seemed like a pretty reasonable follow-up.
Uber's brogrammers are the exact polar opposite of Sun's long haired dope smoking barefoot commie hippie hackers (of the pre-Java era).
That's one of the myths created by media.
That Sun commie hippie hackers smoked dope and walked around barefoot and didn't cut their hair?
Sun's Solaris for hippies to arrive next week.
https://www.theregister.com/2005/01/19/sun_cddl_solaris/
John Gage was on Richard Nixon's Enemies List.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkHax19CUJ4&ab_channel=ROBER...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gage
California inspired: from flower power to Silicon Valley. How 1960s Bay Area radicalism helped shape the technological powerhouse of northern California.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2017/07/california...
>Gage first arrived at UC Berkeley as a maths student in 1960, becoming involved in the Free Speech Movement and towards the end of the decade in George McGovern’s presidential campaign against Richard Nixon. It wasn’t until 1975 that he completed his bachelor’s degree at Berkeley. At the university he became friends with Joy. [...]
>Brand argued in his essay ‘We Owe It All to the Hippies’: “The counterculture’s scorn for centralised authority provided the philosophical foundations of not only the leaderless internet, but also the entire personal-computer revolution.”
WE OWE IT ALL TO THE HIPPIES. Stewart Brand.
Forget antiwar protests, Woodstock, even long hair.
The real legacy of the sixties generation is the computer revolution.
http://members.aye.net/~hippie/hippie/special_.htm
>The third generation of revolutionaries, the software hackers of the early '80s, created the application, education and entertainment programs for personal computers. Typical was Mitch Kapor, a former transcendental-meditation teacher, who gave us the spreadsheet program Lotus 1-2-3, which ensured the success of IBM's Apple-imitating PC. Like most computer pioneers, Kapor is still active. His Electronic Frontier Foundation, which he co-founded with a lyricist for the Grateful Dead [John Perry Barlow], lobbies successfully in Washington for civil rights in cyberspace.
I think SV will continue to produce big tech companies, but you can probably put a date on the begin of a decline earlier than them.
I think SVs decline will be more like jumping the shark in ideology than monetary failures.
Yeah Juicero was like 2014, wasn't it?
Interesting how polarizing this article is.
I loved it and his writing style, I agree that it's rough premise and although there are counter arguments e.g. Stripe/Uber/Coinbase I think the overall argument is correct, the culture has changed.
But it's interesting to see so many argue that this is written in a self-aggrandizing, self-important style. Generally I agree with those people when it comes to LinkedIn style articles etc. e.g. [0] is a prime example.
But this one really resonated with me and comes across as extremely genuine hence my surprise at the reaction.
[0]
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24901940
[Amazon] is fundamentally just another middleman, and will not stand the test of time. True innovation, like the silicon chip itself, stands the test of time.
Most importantly, Tesla continues to innovate.
I'm not sure what his definition of innovation is, here. Both Amazon and Tesla took existing technologies and ideas, put then together in a novel way, and iterated on them. Is it because Amazon (excluding AWS) doesn't build something physical? And if we include AWS, how can you argue that changing the way software infrastructure is managed _not_ innovative?
As the author of The Best, I am quite surprised and confused by Rhinehart's suggestion that the piece marks the "death" of Silicon Valley. He does not seem to understand me or what I was saying at all.
Also, "my ilk" are the very people he praises, including Paul Graham and YC founders pre-2012. I'm tempted to write a rebuttal, because while I agree that there was a marked change in the startup community around that time, I think it happened for reasons very different from the ones Rhinehart outlines in his piece.
(For reference:
)
Your blog post sounds like your philosophy was to search for and find goods that you would enjoy using and give you peace of mind. His philosophy sounds more like "get what works, if it breaks replace it and try again." The longevity and quality of his items don't seem to matter so much as their ability to fulfill each stated purpose adequately. Your philosophy sounds consumeristic in the face of his more utilitarian sounding examples.
Taking the example of your flatware - why not just get some cheap stuff from Walmart? It will work well enough. The mouth sensation and feel in hand is secondary to the purpose of feeding yourself. I'd buy it because it looks nice but the cost of that vs a 20 piece set from Walmart? You can donate the excess to a soup kitchen.
My unasked for $0.02. I'd read your rebuttal. Please write it.
I think Rhinehart’s perspective may be that a generation of people are focused on solving the wrong problems (ones that don’t have real impact on human lives) and we (collective) are fetishsizing that singular focus on making the best of something that is largely inconsequential in the real of real problems. For example, should anyone be making the best flatware and why do we care about buying the best flatware when there’s plenty of good enough.
There’s so many points in his article that it’s hard to start in one place but I got the sense that his overarching thesis is this:
There’s a bunch of real human problems today (hunger, climate change, disease etc) and people can either be working on 1) solving these problems or 2) distracting people from thinking about their own mortality and these crises. In the bucket of the distraction-economy is probably anything entertainment related, social networking, consumerism, etc which is not innovative. There are people who are trying to change the system because it’s broken not just simply extract more value from it.
At least that was my takeaway.
I missed your post when it came out the first time, but I don't think you need to add a rebuttal about "The Best"; I think the message is clear and hasn't changed. Now your view on if Silicon Valley has fallen would be something I'd like to read.
But as far as your original post, I couldn't find anything polarizing and controversial about why seeking and trusting the best would bring peace of mind, or how that is somehow a call for overconsumption.
It's strange how differently the same words can be understood by different people.
I’d be interested in reading that post. I hope you do end up writing it.
I think one more reason is leaders who are leading nowadays compare to older times of around 2010... Leaders today want quick results, Fail-fast. These management graduates leading companies today, don't understand empathy, research investment, innovation. They don't encourage grass-root employees to spend time on their own choices and innovation.. everything had to be justified by business and ROI.. innovation is just a bucket and used to showcase to senior leadership..
I hadn't thought about Rob Rhinehart a while. He inspired many of us back in 2013 when he founded a company to solve the food problem with the engineering mindset, and all the innocence that entails. Today his blog looks like rallying cry for all the nails that got hammered down. It's very inspiring and some of this stuff takes a nontrivial amount of courage to say. He can be my movement leader any day.
and got acquired by an advertising company
lololol
I just can’t tell what time period he is talking about
When was he there to watch it fall?
2019-2020 finally had companies moving offices into parts of the bay that many more people actually wanted to be in
Leave the bay area and good luck finding people to talk about some obscure package that is going to soon become treated like a unique skillset requiring years of experience
I hope the fall of Silicon Valley takes with it these overlong, self-important essays about Silicon Valley.
I read the blog hoping to find out what the fall of Silicon Valley was but that was rendered incoherent by the excessive Name dropping.
I can't help but find that this article resonates with me, even if in some ways it goes too far.
I just can't understand why someone would put so much effort into writing this. I almost stopped myself from reading it but I decided to read it anyway. I regret it. I think this same essay has been written millions of times (of course for things other than and probably more important than Silicon Valley). It's definitely been written about Silicon Valley at least once before.
As an Indian citizen in Silicon Valley who has also lived in many other countries, I would say that SV will go through lots of ups and downs (it should) but a long term bet on SV will generally pay off.
there is nothing special about the resources or geography of Silicon Valley that makes it particularly amenable to innovation
Colleges and universities?
Boston/Route 128 had MIT and Harvard and in the 1980s Stanford was nowhere near in prowess.
I would put the date earlier, around 2007, leading up to the great recession. I'm basing that on the vibe of the city (San Francisco), and how it took a nose dive afterwards, and never recovered.
There are few of this type of articles written by 'nobody' every month.
While I agree with the absurdity of this article; Rob, the creator of Soylent, is far from a "nobody".
The more interesting point for me is how the people and the politics have changed. I don't see as many hardcore geeks who breathe the stuff as a I used to, and the politics have got from more libertarian to progressive. Maybe it's just the scene growing up?
Why are there no down-vote buttons for bad submissions?
What is this guy's problem with Nancy Pelosi?
In another piece, he says he’s voting for Kanye.
I liked it, and I despise Facebook and Amazon.
I also learned that the biggest LPs were pension funds. The money was going to the government! Many of the Venture “Capitalists” were actually agents of the socialist pension funds
Snort.
Great read, but remember this is the guy that also recently authored "Why I'm voting for Kanye West".
After reading a few dozen of his short, stream of consciousness paragraphs, I would have independently said "this is the kind of guy who would vote for Kanye West"
https://www.robrhinehart.com/why-i-am-voting-for-kanye-west/
This essay is so bad it really makes me want to discount and ignore anything this person has to say about anything else.
I know that’s probably unfair and I genuinely try to treat unrelated arguments independently from the person arguing them - but it’s rare to see something this wrong while the author revels in their own ignorance.
This isn’t coming from a place of politics, though there’s no way for me to prove it to anyone - it’s just coming from the place of being a reasonably educated person.
Choice quotes like "Kanye is the only candidate to my knowledge that has talked about agriculture." abound. Funny read.
> it’s just coming from the place of being a reasonably educated person
That appears to be a non sequitur, given the author is also, objectively, a "reasonably educated person", as well as being a talented engineer/programmer and a successful entrepreneur, indicating a somewhat broad range of capabilities.
What is it that makes it utterly impossible for an educated/intelligent person to hold the view that US/Western politics is so dysfunctional and corrupt across the board that even a crazy-seeming rank outsider like Kanye could be better than the status quo?
In his essay in particular there's a ton of stuff that's just wrong.
Nancy Pelosi is not the mayor of SF for instance (or the DA, or on the state legislature), city policy is not her job or responsibility. There's more than just that - the essay is riddled with inaccuracies and confused misunderstandings the author dismisses by just saying 'they don't pay attention to politics'.
If I wrote an essay riddled with technical errors staking a position about technology and then dismissed details as 'I don't pay attention to maths' would that be similarly accepted? It'd be dismissed as stupid. Why is it different for politics? [0]
The belief that everyone is equally bad/corrupt is wrong and it just makes you a mark. People attempt to signal intelligence or deep wisdom by pretending they're above the fray, but it's not actually smart or wise. [1]
The essay is rambly, over-confident, and in the end even mean spirited.
> What is it that makes it utterly impossible for an educated/intelligent person to hold the view that US/Western politics is so dysfunctional and corrupt across the board that even a crazy-seeming rank outsider like Kanye could be better than the status quo?
Clearly it's not impossible as evidenced by the essay, but it's still wrong.
[0]:
http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html
[1]:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jeyvzALDbjdjjv5RW/pretending...
OK, fair enough about the specific/technical errors, but on the other hand it's a mistake to dismiss someone's entire argument over specific technical details when the overall argument may still be "directionally" true/valid.
"If I wrote an essay riddled with technical errors staking a position about technology" - this is not really an apt comparison, because politics is something that everyone is meant to be qualified to comment on, by virtue of the fact that every adult is considered to be informed enough about politics to vote. So it's the directionality of the argument that matters, not every fine detail. And given that the real topic of the essay seems not to be politics but leadership, as a successful company founder the author is very qualified to comment on that, and his mistaken beliefs about political details are not central to the argument.
In the case of the particular error you point out, sure it's technically incorrect of him to refer to "the city and county of San Francisco she controls", but as a Democratic Party congressperson representing that area, she could easily influence policy to improve the running of that city/county. So he's not completely off target with that critique.
"The belief that everyone is equally bad/corrupt is wrong and it just makes you a mark"
I don't think that's what he's saying, and it's not what I said or what I believe.
As for “pretending to be wise”; he doesn’t seem to be offering a neutral position and by virtue of writing a very long, reputation-risking post on the topic, he’s not avoiding investing resources, so that post doesn’t seem to be relevant.
But this notion that is morally incumbent for everyone to endorse and vote for a major party candidate is, in my observation, usually an attempt to guilt/shame people into supporting the proponent's preferred party.
How is it not acceptable for an educated person to adopt such a view as: "this whole circus is a stupid game orchestrated by media behemoths, financial institutions, military contractors and other cronies and rent-seekers, and it serves mostly to divide and exploit ordinary individuals and families in order that a small number of elite insiders can profit, and I choose not to play a role in perpetuating it"?
I'm not saying you have to believe that; clearly you don't, and nor do I, completely. But I know of people, educated, objectively intelligent people, not just fringe conspiracy-theorists, who hold this kind of position very sincerely, and whether it's completely valid or not, I don't see how it's an unquestionably wrong or immoral position to hold.
> politics is something that everyone is meant to be qualified to comment on, by virtue of the fact that every adult is considered to be informed enough about politics to vote
I don't agree with this. Just because you have the right to vote does not mean you're informed. Just like the right to free speech doesn't mean what you say is worth listening too. The freedom to comment doesn't mean the comments will be any good.
> but as a Democratic Party congressperson representing that area, she could easily influence policy to improve the running of that city/county.
This just feels like a rationalized excuse to me. He criticizes her for changes unrelated to her responsibilities or power and then it's not off target because she could have tried to fix those things anyway? She's not involved there - I doubt you can effectively engage in two complex policy/politics arenas and be effective.
She wouldn't know the specific details and wouldn't have time/access to work with people in the state government on it. To me it's like blaming a cardiologist for stomach cancer because they work in the same general medical field, it shows a complete lack of understanding of basic government.
> As for “pretending to be wise”; he doesn’t seem to be offering a neutral position
He's making a false equivalence between two major party candidates with the general message being they're equivalently bad so let's try a third crazy person instead (with some weak justifications). The 'everyone is bad' argument is the above the fray pretending to be wise bit. Then he gets the details wrong.
> But this notion that is morally incumbent for everyone to endorse and vote for a major party candidate
Not voting for a major party candidate is equivalent to not voting in its effect. It's basically a position that either major party candidate is similarly bad.
> How is it not acceptable for an educated person to adopt such a view as: "this whole circus is a stupid game orchestrated by media behemoths, financial institutions, military contractors and other cronies and rent-seekers, and it serves mostly to divide and exploit ordinary individuals and families in order that a small number of elite insiders can profit, and I choose not to play a role in perpetuating it"?
I know this position well because it was often held by people around me growing up. It's a position that sounds smart, but isn't - and feels a lot like the being above the fray pretending to be wise signaling. I've never met someone who holds it and has a good nuanced understanding of the issues - they're always just dismissing things out of hand without having tried to understand any of it. I recognize this could be read as me just putting people I disagree with in a class of 'no nuanced understanding', but look at this essay as an example. A strong position from someone who is openly admitting they have barely learned anything about what they're talking about.
I'm not arguing there aren't problems in government (perverse incentives, cronies, rent-seekers, etc.) - doing something complex at scale is hard, but it's possible to learn about policy and what people are actually doing and come to an informed decision about the details. You can read things like The World As It Is, you can read about people that work in the government (or work there yourself). You can see the real effects of policy in action and the effects of legal shifts on history.
The position you mention is intellectually weak as well as wrong, people are free to hold it - but when I read a long screed about it (this essay) filled with even dumber arguments (and conspiracies) pushing for a crazy person to hold the office I'm compelled to call it out for what it is.
[Also - as an aside I appreciate the thoughtful back and forth. The discussion is in good faith, the wording above isn't an attack of your comment - I'm happy to try and make how I think about this clearer/disagree in a pleasant way.]
> Who is this man (Biden)? I had never heard of him until very recently.
Wait, what? Just a paragraph before he is talking about having voted for Obama.
So either you voted for someone for the first and only time and didn’t bother looking into the VP on the ticket. Or it’s just a lie.
I don’t know if that’s supposed to be an exaggeration or something?
The entire thing reads like something by someone who’s done too many hallucinogens and is a little fried.
Don’t assume hallucinogens when stupidity will suffice
This post reeks of privilege and a tremendous lack of self-awareness. Oh, you don't care for politics because the outcome of the election won't affect your life all that much? Good for you. A large portion of the population doesn't have that luxury.
_You are now my political leader. I will remain a law abiding citizen of the United States, but I will follow your leadership, and your example. I will work to execute your policies. I will follow the regulations you suggest. You may even tax me. Send me a venmo request. I will do what you ask, so long as you do not ask me to commit an act of violence, but I do not think you will. Please, Kanye, rescue us from oppression, save us from the evil octopus of the New York Times and Trump, Biden, and Nancy Pelosi, the serpentine robots that feed it. Teach us to pray again. Teach us to love again. Teach us to find the genius inside. Forgive us our debts. Help us grow more and better food and find better ways to produce and distribute energy. Work with Elon to take us to Mars._
Can't believe I read the entire thing. What the hell did I just read
tldr; The (long) article is simply wrong.
It's true that the startup hardware scene in SV died around 2012, since VCs don't like the risk or long timeframes, but that just means more software startups.
As an illustration, if you live outside SV, try telling your friends and family, "I'm quitting my day job to start (or work) at a startup" and watch their reactions. Especially in Europe or Asia.
The Mythical "Ethos". Most countries on Planet earth would kill to have something like silicon valley. Yes the surrounding prices are insane for housing etc, but thats a market issue, and a lack of innovation in the economics of the place issue, not an innovation in silicon valley issue.
Flagged because the author said Biden's son killed himself in his previous post. I don't think that's ad hom. It would be if he'd said it a long time ago, but it was 5 days ago.
You flagged this article because the author said something you don't like in another post?
Not because it's something I don't like, but because it's misinformation.