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Re: "Now that Biden has dropped out, Democrats have the..."
I think the best possible strategy is to stir the pot. That way, they don't get too comfy with their criminal activities. A new administration needs a couple of years to settle in before they start royally screwing us again, and if reelected, the encumbents get totally shameless. And it really helps to have internal strife and disagreement between house and senate. Keeps them busy, otherwise they start wars and create other disasters for us.
Oct 02 · 2 months ago
to say that "nothing changed under trump" is a profoundly uninformed take. Two big things happened: a massive tax cut for the rich and corporate class in 2018 and selecting two supreme court justices that resulted in roe v wade being overturned. Was your day-to-day existence unchanged? That's fine, but say that instead.
Followed by a multi-trillion dollar giveaway to the rich and corporate class by Biden, who kept the tax cuts. The supreme court decision is a direct consequence of RBG's decision to die in office, that's on Democrats. The hubris! Biden tried the same playbook, but is too obviously feeble-minded. Anything else change? oh, yea, the insane military escalation! An unelected team running the country with a puppethead president (usually this is called a 'coup') [I am not a Republican, I just don't like brainwashing and propaganda blindly repeated]
stack, do you agree with my assessment that there were at least two big changes during the trump presidency? do you think the changes I referenced were good or bad, overall? I'm not interested in playing games of "whataboutism", where we can't talk about one candidate without referencing the other. that is a dishonest tactic and dodges the original question.
Speaking of dishonest tactics, why are we only allowed to talk about your two hand-picked changes under Trump here? Start another topic if you want.
🐐 satch [OP] · Oct 04 at 07:44:
I'm slightly surprised that Kamala Harris is doing so well in polls, but I every time I watch Trump talk it reminds me how awful he is at pretending to be competent, something that Biden was also awful at but Harris is pulling off a lot better (still doing a bad job but the floor is low).
So I get it. But my point from the original post still stands: any actually even moderately decent Democratic candidate and Trump would be cooked. Anyone left or right from Dennis Kucinich to Joe Manchin could have won handily. The reason the race is close is because Harris is part of her party elite and cannot effectively communicate with people outside of her base.
it's impossible to reasonably evaluate counterfactuals like "Joe Manchin/Bernie Sanders would be killing it right now".
I actually don't think playing to undecideds is the right approach. Shore up the base and get non-voters out seems like the way to win these past cycles. Why fight over 10% when there are millions that aren't even part of that total?
🐐 satch [OP] · Oct 04 at 13:10:
@murdock this is what my personal causal model says about the counterfactuals. It’s impossible to *prove* that I’m right but all they really are doing is describing my casual model which says that choosing Kamala Harris as the nominee decreased the probability of Democrats winning the presidency relative to a different candidate from outside of the party establishment.
As to your point about undecideds versus non voters, I agree 100%.
👻 darkghost · Oct 04 at 20:26:
I think it would be a close race no matter the candidate. The morass that is our political reality defies reason. It's like pure id.
Both sides are willing to overlook the very kind of horribleness that they insist makes the other party unelectable. Subverting democracy, corruption, outright treason. Never mind if we do it, we are on your side. It's them you need to worry about!
"both sides are equally bad" is the most tired political take you can have. it's cheap, lazy and inaccurate. it also absolves the user of needing to dive deep into the details of any given issue. why bother, they both suck!
'Bad' is a poor choice of a quality to measure. I don't think they are 'equally' bad, and one side is particularly bad (currently) for international conflicts and the economy. They are both corrupt and evil if you wish, as in taking advantage of and lying to unsuspecting fools who think they can 'save democracy' or have 'free speech'.
Now that Biden has dropped out, Democrats have the opportunity to nominate a candidate who can beat Trump. The trouble is, they won’t. Kamala Harris is basically the second least electable Democrat after Biden. She dropped out of the 2020 primary for a reason. She was a horrible attorney general and she comes across to voters as exactly the slimy opportunist that she is. If Trump is the existential threat to democracy which many claim he is, then Democrats should act like it and nominate...