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Re: "With a stroke of a keyboard, GDP has been revised UP by..."
Nominally 25% sounds good, but everything around where I am pretty much doubled in price from 2021. Government inflation numbers are hogwash, thanks to Clinton's hedonic adjustments.
Oct 01 · 3 months ago
Declines are not how a recession is typically defined, it's two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 01:10:
Really? Actually it's TWO CONSEQUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GDP GROWTH, aka decline. If you see an actual negative GDP, it's game over!
Please don't argue when you don't understand the subject matter.
Wow, you're getting very upset here, that's the second insult you tossed in my direction. Do you realize we said the same thing? Do you realize you have not provided data showing 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP? (That means there is a minus sign in front of the number)
👻 darkghost · Oct 02 at 14:34:
Stuff is more expensive. I wouldn't say double out my way. More expensive, but not enough to change my spending habits. I think there is the perception of a rough economy, but it isn't bearing out in discretionary household spending. I've been hearing there's gonna be stagflation since 2021. Inflation certainly happened. But the stagnant part hasn't.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 17:03:
@murdock: the GDP can _NEVER_ go negative. Never. You will never see a negative sign in front of the GDP. It can be less than the last quarter, still positive but smaller. When that happens two times in a row, it is called a recession. That happened in 2022.
I will ignore your comments from now on because you are either messing with me, or are ignorant and argumentative, and should think about why. Note that I never actually insulted you, although I am tempted.
I'll bow out of this conversation with a link to a chart showing negative GDP growth in the era of the great recession, if only to educate others who may be reading. See the second graph.
— https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/february/unemployment-rate-dynamics-us-europe
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 18:45:
Some people... Classic comedy!
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 19:01:
@darkghost, look at the guidance from McDonalds, big box stores, car makers... Consumer behaviour is certainly altered. Most americans have no savings. The job market is freezing. It's in slow motion, which is how it is (until it collapses). When you are in the slow-boil pot, it doesn't seem that hot
Everyone I know in US retail has seen a sharp decline the last three months. The only period worse was COVID lockdowns.
Uncertainty has people being much more careful about their purchases.
Hope for a good holiday season after the US election is settled one way or another.
👻 darkghost · Oct 04 at 22:58:
Jobs market doesn't seem to be freezing given the report today, and certainly in my neck of the woods we have a lot of attrition. This is in a STEM field and the people who've left had senior titles. Certainly the company culture is partly to blame for what's driving people away, but the point I'm making is these are professionals that have some other places to go.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 04 at 23:15:
According to today's report, things have never been better! How convenient, just before the elections. It's amazing what you can do with a magic inflation wand. When money is cut in half and prices and earnings double, it sure looks like the economy is twice what it was! Abracadabra!
Woo-hoo, everything is going up.
And you can always revise it next year. I wish I could run a business that way. Listening to Yellen makes me vomit every time.
With a stroke of a keyboard, GDP has been revised UP by trillions or so, erasing a recession, and making the economy look far better for incumbent party in the election. This move is worthy of the Soviet Union! God help us. I don't like the alternatives, but at this point the Central Committee presents a clear danger. Most people worry about other things, but I worry about ra 'financial accident' that will take us back to stone age. That, and killing people. Not clear which fascist...