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With a stroke of a keyboard, GDP has been revised UP by trillions or so, erasing a recession, and making the economy look far better for incumbent party in the election. This move is worthy of the Soviet Union!
God help us.
I don't like the alternatives, but at this point the Central Committee presents a clear danger. Most people worry about other things, but I worry about ra 'financial accident' that will take us back to stone age. That, and killing people. Not clear which fascist candidate is better. Sadly only radical liars are running in the US.
Sep 30 · 3 months ago
👻 darkghost · Oct 01 at 00:52:
Wouldn't help the incumbent party because people have the memories of goldfish and we will be on to the next outrage in less than 48 hours.
revising the GDP doesn't "erase" a recession when the original figure wasn't negative in the first place.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 04:12:
@murdock: 2 sequential negative quarters are a technical recession. After the revision, only one neg. The revision added fake extra to every quarter going back several years. It is insane.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 04:15:
@darkghost, now they get to say the economy was great, no recession, no inflation, and we are a trillion dollars richer!(cough) They are all liars, but lately Democrats have no shame, and really like killing people. I can see Hillary's *issmark over the 'Biden' policy...
revising GDP figures isn't anything new. there hasn't been reported negative GDP since 2022. what data do you have of negative GDP in 2023 or this year?
👻 darkghost · Oct 01 at 12:18:
Revised GDP numbers are nothing new. Happened all the time under many previous administrations as well. In 2018 the GDP was revised once per quarter and the whole year was revised up from 2.5% to 2.9%. What exactly is abnormal about it this time?
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 15:29:
Geez, look up 2022, pre-revision. Sure, revising GDP is not unusual, but consistently revising up, especially when all economic indicators point down -- and all bank and brokerage guidance is negative, is a ballsy move. Suddenly you can talk about improvements in consumer spending and business investment, even though reality indicates otherwise, and the fed cuts rates.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 16:20:
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 16:21:
Yes, your real income was boosted! Don't you feel so much richer? Disgusting propaganda.
I looked it up, the old numbers weren't negative (i.e. definition of a recession). It's apples and oranges to compare GDP figures (backward looking) to predicting what effect things like rate cuts have on GDP (forward looking).
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 17:20:
2022 showed 2 sequential declines. Enough shilling. There is no shame in an economic decline, but there is in blatantly lying your way to elections. That is a _real_ threat to democracy.
👻 darkghost · Oct 01 at 21:53:
I mean my investment account is doing pretty well. I'm making 25% more than I did in 2021, which outpaces inflation. But that's me and my situation.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 01 at 22:44:
Nominally 25% sounds good, but everything around where I am pretty much doubled in price from 2021. Government inflation numbers are hogwash, thanks to Clinton's hedonic adjustments.
Declines are not how a recession is typically defined, it's two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 01:10:
Really? Actually it's TWO CONSEQUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GDP GROWTH, aka decline. If you see an actual negative GDP, it's game over!
Please don't argue when you don't understand the subject matter.
Wow, you're getting very upset here, that's the second insult you tossed in my direction. Do you realize we said the same thing? Do you realize you have not provided data showing 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP? (That means there is a minus sign in front of the number)
👻 darkghost · Oct 02 at 14:34:
Stuff is more expensive. I wouldn't say double out my way. More expensive, but not enough to change my spending habits. I think there is the perception of a rough economy, but it isn't bearing out in discretionary household spending. I've been hearing there's gonna be stagflation since 2021. Inflation certainly happened. But the stagnant part hasn't.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 17:03:
@murdock: the GDP can _NEVER_ go negative. Never. You will never see a negative sign in front of the GDP. It can be less than the last quarter, still positive but smaller. When that happens two times in a row, it is called a recession. That happened in 2022.
I will ignore your comments from now on because you are either messing with me, or are ignorant and argumentative, and should think about why. Note that I never actually insulted you, although I am tempted.
I'll bow out of this conversation with a link to a chart showing negative GDP growth in the era of the great recession, if only to educate others who may be reading. See the second graph.
— https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/february/unemployment-rate-dynamics-us-europe
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 18:45:
Some people... Classic comedy!
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 02 at 19:01:
@darkghost, look at the guidance from McDonalds, big box stores, car makers... Consumer behaviour is certainly altered. Most americans have no savings. The job market is freezing. It's in slow motion, which is how it is (until it collapses). When you are in the slow-boil pot, it doesn't seem that hot
Everyone I know in US retail has seen a sharp decline the last three months. The only period worse was COVID lockdowns.
Uncertainty has people being much more careful about their purchases.
Hope for a good holiday season after the US election is settled one way or another.
👻 darkghost · Oct 04 at 22:58:
Jobs market doesn't seem to be freezing given the report today, and certainly in my neck of the woods we have a lot of attrition. This is in a STEM field and the people who've left had senior titles. Certainly the company culture is partly to blame for what's driving people away, but the point I'm making is these are professionals that have some other places to go.
🚀 stack [OP] · Oct 04 at 23:15:
According to today's report, things have never been better! How convenient, just before the elections. It's amazing what you can do with a magic inflation wand. When money is cut in half and prices and earnings double, it sure looks like the economy is twice what it was! Abracadabra!
Woo-hoo, everything is going up.
And you can always revise it next year. I wish I could run a business that way. Listening to Yellen makes me vomit every time.