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Issued on 2024 Oct 26 0928 UTC
An X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 2398) was recorded, peaking at 07:19 UTC on October 26, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872). Type II and Type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:29 UTC on October 26 during the flaring activity. A strong coronal wave and dimming related to this event are visible in the SDO/AIA data. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is increasing but remains below the 10 pfu threshold level. Coronagraph data will be analyzed when it becomes available to determine if any associated CME is Earth-directed.
Issued on 2024 Oct 26 1234 UTC
A fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data starting at around 06:48 UTC on October 26. The CME is directed primarily to the southeast from Earth's perspective and is associated with the X1.8 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872), along with Type II and Type IV radio emissions detected at 06:29 UTC on October 26. The CME has an estimated speed around 1500 km/s. Preliminary analysis suggests that while the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, however a glancing blow could be possible on October 28. Further analysis is ongoing to determine potential impact on Earth.
Issued on 2024 Oct 26 1729 UTC
A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 15:35 UTC on October 26. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 14 nT to 22 nT, and the solar wind speed increased from 370 km/s to 440 km/s. The shock is related to an ICME arrival, likely associated with a halo coronal mass ejection observed early on October 24. Currently, geomagnetic conditions are unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be disturbed, with active to minor storm conditions possible depending on the Bz component. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, increased sharply following the shock arrival, reaching a maximum value of 988 pfu at 16:35 UTC on October 26. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated with a chance of exceeding the minor storm levels in the coming days.
Issued on 2024 Oct 26 2020 UTC
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, exceeded the 10 pfu threshold level today, October 26, at 19:10 UTC. The proton flux had been gradually increasing since 04:15 UTC on October 24. Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), first detected by LASCO C2 at 03:48 UTC on October 24 and 06:48 UTC on October 26, along with strong flaring activity from NOAA AR 3869 and 3873, are likely associated with this particle event. The proton flux is currently above the threshold level and is expected to remain elevated over the coming days. Additionally, the 13-21 MeV proton flux measured on board STEREO-A has also risen, most likely in association with these events.