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2024-11-07
I strongly believe that humanity as we know it will be a thing of the past within my lifetime.
In 2010 the average global temperature was 1.0°C above that from before the industrial revolution.
In 2024 we've crossed 1.5°C. Yes, we have just passed the symbolic mark of the Paris Climate Convention. In just under fifteen years the global average has risen by 0.5°C.
But you know what? The 1.5°C mark we crossed doesn't actually count. We have to have 20 consecutive years above it in order to be ‘officially’ above. WTF.
Given that temperatures rose by 0.5°C in 15 years based on the pollution levels of those years, and 2023s CO2 pollution being a record high, I don't even want to know what the global average temperature will be like in another 20 years. Or how many hundred million people will be forced to migrate from their coastal homes — you know, where most of the major cities, commercial hubs and harbours are.
Unfortunatelly, I will not only know it. I wil be there to see it happen.
Renewable energies are on the rise. Unfortunately energy demand is rising even faster. CO2 output anually is going up, not down. Renewables aren't even enough to compensate the _increase_ in power demand. It is still getting worse, CO2 output is still going up.
A thought experiment: Even if humanity and all our implements would be DELETED from earth today and our CO2 output would therefore drop to zero today, global temperature rise would continue for a few decades, causing another 0.5°C average temperature rise. This is because CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a long time before it is reabsorbed. Our temperature readings of today are a lagging indicator. Oh and by the way, those aliens to delete humanity aren't coming. We'll have to sort that out ourselves. Reality will be much, much warmer that 1.5°C. And wetter due to storms.
My expertise lies in none of the relevant fields but I foresee a collapse of global supply chains by 2050 due to rise in oil prices, weather conditions and shifting coastlines due to ocean level rise.
AI will not be there to save us. Its energy-hunger and our loss of knowledge, critical thinking and skill due to its continuous use will accelerate our own demise.
Governments won't be there to save us. They demonstrate again and again that all they're capable of is token measures.
Asian farmers, south-american villagers and other such communities will weather this change best. They're used to hardship. They rely on their wits, hard work and knowledge that has passed the test of time. I think “modern civilization” will disappear within 100 years or so. We simply don't know how to live sustainably anymore. God knows I personally would starve during the first winter without food neatly wrapped and stacked in shelves at the nearest supermarket.
And then, after those 100 years, slowly for us humans, Earth will recover. CO2 will get absorbed, forests will take over again, biodiversity will come back over time. Balance will be restored. Without that species of ape that was too smart for its own good. But maybe a few of our descendents will still be around in isolated pockets.
Does anyone still think that humanity is in any way important in the grand scheme of things?
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