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I'm often frustrated reading about human extinction probabilities. They're often based on other extinctions from the archaeological record and that's not a great comparison in my opinion.
Humanity is not comparable to any known lifeform to have existed on this planet. what other creature has our ability for existential thought? our closest "equals" can perhaps ponder the deaths of others and maybe even themselves but there is no good evidence that any other animal outside of human beings that can even conceive of the very idea extinction let alone their own possible extinction.
we can argue about degrees and kinds and all that mumbojumbo but we are uniquely situated in the history of life on earth to grapple with the question of the extinction of our species.
This idea that we are helpless in the face of the fossil record becomes a kind of post-modern telos, if you'll excuse the contradictian; an atheistic materialist eschatology that speaks of our inability to grapple with irresistable forces at work in the universe.
It has become a method of pacification and subjugation to a gluttonous socioeconomic order that needs us to believe that the world it has created was always inevitable. A bit of existential theater that has played out, again and again, since the dawn of time. It is normal, it is natural and it is unavoidable.
this view is pure, utter and unequivocal bullshit.
the very fact that we can recognize the pattern and situate ouselves within it means we are uniquely suited to avoiding it.
If we are to do so, however, we must reign in the systems and institutions that rely on the unending production/consumption cycle. We must reign it in and destroy it or it's insatiable appetite will mean our own death.