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The dawning of a new year is a good opportunity to look toward a brighter future. Lean back, take a sip of your favourite drink, open your mind and cast your mind's eye towarrd the future.
1. What year will mankind next set (human) foot on the moon, and who (nation state, corporate entity, etc) will it be?
2. Stephenson's "Diamond Age" or Doctorow's "Walkaway"?
3. Will artificial general intelligence be achieved, and if so, when is that likely to be? What will it change about our lives?
4. (When/ will) the COVID-19 pandemic be declared over - ie "endemic", seasonal and no longer an emergency situation?
5. What does the year 2072 look like in your mind's eye?
Tha Cobra! Tha e na dhòchas airson àm ri teachd làidir, neo-eisimeileach, seasmhach
Daniel's pragmatic guide to a sensible future
Tribbick knows nature trumps technology
1. I'm thinking that mankind will make footfall on the moon by 2030. We may make it a little earlier than then, but I think the Artemis mission's stated target of 2024 is unrealistic. I'm pretty sure that Artemis/SpaceX will be the ones to break the seal, but that China and corporate/bajillionaire interests (including SpaceX-only missions) will follow pretty quickly and open a new frontier - a new space age where we push outwards at an accelerating pace. Anything could happen; accellerating climate change may interfere with the US and even China's space programs by forcing the reallocation of government resources etc. But I think the mega-rich will be somewhat inclined - and sufficiently resouced and motivated - to ignore that storm and do it anyway.
2. I truly lust after some of the advanced nanotech of the world of the Diamond Age, but the almost caste-denominated culture that has developed around it is somewhat obscene (which is of course the point). A post "Diamand Age" egalitarian era would be magical - but I would love it to be infused with the Walkaway spirit of Anarchistic collectives and engaged innovation. Post capitalism and the end of scarcity need to be founded on true equality - I want my Post-capitalist fully automated queer luxury anarchist socialism!
3. I think "exceptionally smart" neural / GAN-based AI will emerge in the next decade, and it will be able to do certain things -- once considered purely the domain of creative and talented humans -- far "better" than we can. I think capitalism will ensure that this is terribly disruptive to society and work, and that neolibeal policy will ensure that it translates into unprecedented inequality in what could otherwise be an era of plenty.
Beyond that, I am not sure if true generalised AI will be as "easy" to create as we think it is. There is strong emerging evidence that the "connectome" model of human neuron-based cognition is grossly simplistic and underrepresentative of the kinds and magnitudes of computation that actually lead to consciousness, and that there is far, far more going on within and between the neurons themselves.
Maybe generalised AI requires some "meta-coginitive" layer to bridge task-specific AIs. Maybe we are barking up the wrong tree. If we ever create something that is equivalent in intelligence and intuition and "meta cognition" to a human, I think it will involve "supreme" quantum technology, photonic computation and technologies that may yet require decades of focused development to reach maturity. If we do that, I think it will lead to something akin to our current idea of the "singularity" - just weirder then anyhting we could imagine. Weired than even a Charlie Stross and Rudy Rucker lovechild could come up with.
4. The COVID-19 pandemic "state of emergency" may well be declared "over" (in the west) late in 2022 or early in 2023. I think Omicron, being both more contagious, and seemingly less severe for a lot of the population, will see the biggest surge yet. I think that within a month or so of now we will see many Western hospital systems crack, and some fail, due simply to the numbers involved, and I think we will see it wreak havoc amongst the unvaccinated, as well as in more vulnerable populations (elderly people, immunocompromised people, etc). COVID will likely then "burn out" in the west and become endemic and more like the flu, with most of the population having some level of natural and/or vaccinated immunity.
COVID-19 will likely contiune to be an ongoing scourge in poorer countries for at least a few years, and is likely to produce (hopefully smaller) peaking death-tolls in one or two more waves. This may or may not create more variants that make their way across the world, maybe or maybe not creating the need for new boosters. Either way - after it has burnt its way through poorer, unvaccinated communities, it will likely peter out into an endemic flu-class disease, with smaller epidemics of various new annual or semi-annual strains that we vaccinate the vulnerable against in the West.
5. I have many pictures for that era in my mind, and they vary greatly depending on the path we take, and what the planet does in response. If we were a more logical race, it could be an era of unprecedented comfort, wellness and fulfilment for all - all we need to do is dedicate our consderable intellectual and industrial capabilities to making better, sustainable technologies that reverse the harm we have already done, and improve the quality of life for all people. But that's not how we roll.
Whatever eventuates, I think 2072 is going to look far weirder to us than 2022 would to someone from 1972. But in unpredicatable ways. Cars may well still look like cars, and if you live away from a coastal area, the building you live in today may still be somebody's home. But maybe not, on both counts. I think society will look different, no matter what eventuates, and the technology utilised will also be starkly different.
We will have either made major changes to address the impact of our civilisation on the environment, and hence will be employing very different techniques and technologies for energy prodution, consumption, manufacturing and distribution. Or, we will be decades into dealing with some of the worst impacts of climate change, and will be living through massive changes to the way we live and the quality of our lives, with our stressed industrial, financial and scientific resources refocussed on combatting, deflecting, adapting to and mitigating significant -- verging on existential -- environmental challenges. Our major coastal cities may well be inundated by water, and centres, techniques (and product) of food production could be significantly changed and under unprecedented pressure; we may have to ration various resources, and curtail activities that we currently take for granted. We may also be in the process of relocating many millions of people, after having already lost millions more. A world shaped by reactive mitigation is also likely to be a world of gross inequality, with the middle class likely to be obliterated within a generation.
I don't think our democracies will survive another 50 years. At least, not in their current form. They are not fit for purpose: antiquated, corrupted and slow to respond, focussed more on popularity and opinion than objective facts and actual needs. They are also not truly representative democracies. I hope they will evolve into better, fairer systems. I suspect they will first regress into much uglier forms of government, but they may be on their way back by 2072 - fresh and agile, ready for a new era of enlightenment.
I hope for the best. I hope that even if we follow our previous patterns of implemementing solutions at the very last minute, that we prevail, that we remain innovative, creative and free to enjoy life and the world around us. I hope that the world becomes more equal, that quality of life once again becomes a focus instead of growth for growth's sake, and that we have time and enegy to explore the universe around us, advancing art, science and culture as we move forward. I hope that 2072 looks nothing like today, in every way that makes the world of 2072 a better place for all people.
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♻️ (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Bronzie Beat
Updated 20220128