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2024-08-27 - What's going on with French politics

I have been asked that question a couple of times by Americans since June when Macron decided to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale. I usually try to give some facts, but it's difficult to understand without explaining how the French political system works. So let's do that, shall we. And then I can explain a little more how messy the current situation is.

The Fifth French Republic

The Ve République was founded by Charles de Gaulle in 1958 and followed the forth post-war republic which was notorious for being unstable. The latter saw 24 different governments in 12 years. Attempting to fix that, De Gaulle gave a lot more political power to the elected President, which was mostly an honorific title before that, the government being the real executive power.

Executive Power

1. An elected President by popular vote for 5 years (twice max). He's the head of the state. His main powers includes:

2. A Prime Minister, appointed by the President. He's the head of the government. As such, he appoints all members of the government (Ministers in French).

The interesting thing that one can notice here, is that the President appoints the Prime Minister and can revoke him an any time. It means that in facts, the President controls the government - at least for major decisions and directions.

Legislative Power

The legislative power in France is held by:

For a law to pass, the national assembly must vote it, then get it approved either by the senate or the Prime Minister. That gives them the most legislative political power.

It's interesting to note that since Jacques Chirac around 2000, legislative elections' calendar is in sync with the presidential elections and happens a couple of months later. It means that the assembly is usually won by the presidential party, benefiting from the post-elections favorable opinion.

Another very important point: the national assembly has the power to revoke the Prime Minister with a 50% vote.

Judicial Power

I won't go over it here, there are a few institutional instances besides handling regular judicial operations, but overall they don't hold a lot of political power compared to the US.

French Republic - Simplified organization

Political Parties

Another big difference with the US political landscape, is that there are a lot of political parties and groups, from far left to far right. They can be a little hard to count because some parties might together for an election or another, but there are currently 12 groups in the national assembly. Note that not all parties got seats during the last election.

Even with that very colorful scene, the only parties that were elected during a presidential election were the main right and left parties (current names are respectively "Les Républicains" and "Parti Socialiste"). And that was true, until 2017, when Macron was elected. He was not part of either of these party, and campaign over being a centrist. That's debatable, but it seems fair to say that he's on right of the left party, and on the left of the right party.

Anyway, what we observe with a centrist party draining votes from the moderates of both historical parties is the rise of extremists. It wasn't really hard to predict, especially when intensified by a worldwide climate of populism rise.

That's why today, during the last elections, we heard more about LFI (La France Insoumise; far left) and RN (Rassemblement National; far right).

Political Turmoil since June

I won't go over the entire Macron mandate, but let's say that his last election victory in 2022 against Le Pen (RN) wasn't out of love of the popular vote. My fellow US citizens can probably relate about having to make a choice by default.

European Elections

So let's get back in June, for the European elections. At this point, President Macron is pretty much toxic and the main political challenge of the oppositions is to maneuver well enough to be able to feast on his political corpse in the next presidential election because he can not run again.

Without any surprise given the previous polls, the RN's group (far right) leaded by Jordan Bardella wins the election on the 9th with a wide margin: 31% of votes, the 2nd being the presidential group with 14%. It's an election with only one round, with a number of seats being proportionally divided based on the % of votes.

Then with a lot of surprise, Macron decided to dissolve the national assembly, i.e. to fire all the deputies and call new legislative elections. The last one that happened was Chirac in 1997 and is still known as a monumental fuck-up. This one wasn't very different, but we'll get there.

Legislative Elections

He called the two rounds of elections on the June 30 and July 7.

My guess it that he bet that with the left divided and the RN turning off moderate voters, he could win his way in second rounds and actually gain back the majority of the assembly (his group was first but had less than 50%). Bet lost, because the left different parties united and the RN tried to act as the only sane party of that political climate. In my opinion, even without that, that bet was just delusional with new elections so close to a huge defeat. Would he have waited after the Olympics, who knows?

Anyway, the presidential party lost seats and the relative majority, but no one really won (one could say that the % of votes vs seats obtained is kind of fucked-up, but that's what you get with elections with two rounds + geographical constituencies):

I think you can see what we get here. 3 political blocs of similar strength that are pretty far from each other on the political spectrum and then pretty much unable to work together.

I won't expand it in this already long log, but it's interesting to note that the NFP being an alliance created to secure seats during the elections, is not very well united. It brings together people from the very far-left to social-democrats (i.e. center-left).

A new Prime Minister. Maybe?

So remember what I said earlier: the assembly can revoke the Prime Minister, it's called a censor motion. So with 3 similar blocs in the assembly, it's fairly certain that 2 blocs can ally to revoke a PM issued of the third group.

That's why the current PM, Gabriel Attal had to resign. If he hadn't, a censor mention would have been called successfully against him. Macron accepted his resignation on July 16. He and his government now have their title prefixed with "resigned", until he's replaced by a new PM appointed by President Macron. In the meantime, they are only supposed to carry the usual state management operations, but can not push new reform or initiatives. A "resigned PM" can not be censored by the assembly.

Well, we're getting close to two months after the legislative elections results, and... the PM still hasn't been replaced. The situation seem kind of stuck, since just appointing a PM from one of the group would immediately result in a censor motion, there must be a compromised. Of course LFI (far-left, part of NFP) and RN are yelling with a feigned indignation that it's a denial of democracy, faking to ignore the situation.

Again, the solution can only come from a negotiation and alliance between the different blocs, parties and individuals. They need to form somewhat of a coalition that can deny a censor motion against a PM with more than 50% of the votes in the assembly. What would be the profile of a PM that would satisfy half of the assembly in its current state, I have no idea. People will have to talk together.

I know that's a crazy idea in 2024 politics, where everything is black or white. It doesn't help that the Fifth French Republic was never in this situation, ever. The other possibility, if nobody accepts to make concessions, is that Gabriel Attal stays resigned Prime Minister until new elections can be held. The constitution states that they can not be less than one year apart.

With all of that, you should have all the keys to follow the French political shit show on your own from now on.

/gemlog

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