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2012-07-10 08:41:35
The latest European summit made more progress than usual but still not enough
Jul 7th 2012 | from the print edition
WAS Europe s 19th crisis summit, held in Brussels on June 28th and 29th, a game-changer? Judging by the euphoria in financial markets and among many commentators, the answer seems to be yes. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds fell sharply as investors decided that Europe s political leaders had committed themselves to the creation of a banking union and to allowing troubled countries easier access to euro-zone rescue funds. The prime ministers of Italy and Spain, Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy, and the French president, Fran ois Hollande, were widely hailed for scoring a victory over Germany s chancellor, Angela Merkel. She, in turn, was excoriated by many at home for giving in to blackmail.
As so often, the summit had been billed as a make-or-break affair, in which Europe s political leaders had to lay out their vision for economic and political integration to save their single currency. Is the euphoria about to fizzle, as in the past?
The summit gave reasons for guarded optimism. Europe s politicians have said they will create a Europe-wide bank supervisor (involving the European Central Bank) before the end of the year. This is only a pledge, but if the history of European policymaking is a guide, the euro zone will quarrel over the details of a banking supervisor only to agree to one eventually. Second, by accepting that bail-out funds can go straight to banks, Mrs Merkel has made a big shift from her insistence that help could go only to governments, with tough conditions attached. The underlying German logic that shared financial liability must imply shared oversight remains the same. But by countenancing jointly financed bank recapitalisation, Mrs Merkel has accepted a broader notion of risk-sharing. This is still a long way from the partial debt mutualisation that the euro zone needs, but it marks a step forward from Germany s exclusive obsession with fiscal austerity.
However, there are caveats. Europe s politicians did not commit themselves to a banking union. There was no agreement to euro-wide deposit insurance or to a common bank-resolution scheme. And although the summit agreed that euro-zone rescue funds could be injected directly into banks, this depends on the single supervisor being in place first.
The supposed loosening of the strings attached to help for peripheral economies was also limited. The much-ballyhooed agreement that rescue funds could buy embattled countries bonds without onerous extra conditions was just a political promise to do something already allowed. The only concrete new commitments were that the promised aid of up to 100 billion ($125 billion) for Spain to recapitalise its banks would no longer be senior to other debt, and that Ireland could expect the burden of its bank bail-outs to be eased.
A set of limited and contingent promises is much better than nothing, but it hardly adds up to a sturdy new foundation for the euro s future. A lot could still go wrong. In a system that requires unanimity, grumbling from Finland and the Netherlands is a reminder that even if the limited deal at the summit holds, further steps will be hard. Legal challenges have already been laid before Germany s constitutional court. Mrs Merkel s coalition partners and even some in her own party are threatening to be obstructive. And existing problems have not gone away: most obviously, hard decisions still have to be made about whether to give more help to Greece, which barely featured in the summit s discussions.
The summer-holiday-saving summit?
It is therefore a brave soul who would call this summit a turning-point for the euro. Given that agreeing on a banking authority will take several months, think how remote are the more fundamental constitutional changes needed to back a banking union and Eurobonds. The outlook for the European and world economy is darkening. Recession will undermine normal politics and create conditions for markets to take fright (see article). The euro zone got through this summit, but it is going to have to prove its resolve over and over again.
from the print edition | Leaders