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2007-07-27 05:19:32
Things go from bad to worse for U.S. home builders
By Ilaina JonasThu Jul 26, 5:48 PM ET
The slaughterhouse that has been the U.S. housing market for the past few months got bloodier on Thursday as several industry leaders reported worse results, June home sales fell more than expected and stocks throughout the sector hit multiyear lows.
The grim tidings about the industry dragged down both the housing and construction sectors, as well as the broader stock market.
"Overall, the market for new homes stinks ... liquidity is getting sucked out of the system," said Alex Vallecillo, senior portfolio analyst with Allegiant Asset Management, which has $30 billion in total assets under management. "Mortgages are going to be tougher to come by, more expensive. The buyers are basically drying up."
On Thursday, after several publicly traded home builders reported their quarterly financial results, the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index (.DJUSHB), a yardstick that measures the sector's performance, fell as much as 6 percent, a low unseen since September 2003.
Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM.N) was off nearly 6 percent, to $19.35, and D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI.N) fell over 5 percent to $16.46, also lows unseen since September 2003. Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH.N) saw its price drop nearly 7 percent to $15.88, its lowest since November 2001.
While individuals companies' results are clearly suffering, many of the macroeconomic trends look just as dismal.
On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department said June single-family homes sales fell 6.6 percent from May, as the median sales price dropped 1.3 percent.
In June, the median sales price of a new home fell 1.3 percent to $237,900 from $241,000 in May.
There were 537,000 new homes for sale in June, holding the same level reported for May. It would take 7.8 months to clear that inventory at the current sales pace, up from the 7.4 months reported for May.
With sales plunging, home builders are now writing down the value of their unsold homes and the land they have bought for future development. The lower value is reflected in each builder's tangible book value -- what a company could get if forced to hold a fire sale.
"The market believes these guys are going to be writing down their book values in the next quarter or two -- or more," Vallecillo said.
About three out four of builders' stocks are trading below the value of tangible book value, Vallecillo said. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV.N) and Beazer trade at about half their book values.
The reduction of book value becomes more drastic as home sales continue to plummet.
On Thursday, D.R. Horton, the No. 1 U.S. home builder, took a whopping $1.28 billion charge, stripping out about 12 percent of its book value. Beazer, the No. 7 U.S. home builder, slashed $188.5 million from its book value.
On Wednesday, No. 3 U.S. home builder Pulte, took down its book value by $749 million.
MONEY WOES
The dour sentiment is also shared by executives in the business of selling or financing new homes.
Industry experts blame the glut of existing homes on the market.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors said that sales of single-family homes fell 3.5 percent while the supply of new single-family homes rose to its highest level since June 1992.
Recently, the chief executive of Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said it could be 2009 before the market recovers and KB Home's (KBH.N) CEO said the market could deteriorate well into 2008. Home builders' sentiment in July reached its lowest level in 16 years.
Investors should only buy housing shares now if they have the stomach to hang on for a long, rocky ride, Vallecillo said.
"It's going to take a while -- six months, nine months, a year, maybe two -- for these issues to resolve themselves and the market to clear," Vallecillo warned.
(Additional reporting by Patrick Rucker in Washington)
(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas)
Stocks tumble in Asia on US housing woes
18 minutes ago
Shares prices tumbled across Asia on Friday on growing fears that woes in the US housing sector would hit the global economy after a sharp fall on Wall Street and in Europe, dealers said.
The Tokyo market, the world's second largest, closed at a near three-month low, with substantial losses in Seoul, Hong Kong and Sydney.
Market players around Asia are carefully watching to see if the US troubles spread across the Pacific, said Kazuhiro Takahashi, head of the equity department at Daiwa Securities SMBC.
"They will take one month or so to make sure the problem isn't hurting the global economy, which is largely expected to be solid towards next year," Takahashi said.
"It is unlikely that the markets will rise back sharply after such a big drop," he added.
US shares plunged Thursday by more than 300 points, although they pared losses in late trade, with investors gripped by anxiety over the housing market.
The US Commerce Department said that sales of new homes dropped in June to the lowest level in three months, raising fears that trouble will spread more widely to other parts of the world's largest economy.
Wall Street has been spooked by default problems in the sub-prime mortgage market, where financial institutions lent to people with patchy credit histories at the top of the US housing boom.
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest securities firm, said earlier this week it may exit the US sub-prime market after incurring large losses put at 260 million dollars.
"The sub-prime problems were earlier believed to have had a limited impact" before Nomura's statement, said Sohei Ikeda, stock market analyst at SMBC Friend Securities.
But he added that he believed "Japanese companies' real exposure to the problem is limited."
The Tokyo Stock Exchange's benchmark Nikkei-225 index of leading shares closed down 418.28 points or 2.36 percent to 17,283.81, the worst finish since May 1.
Confidence on the Tokyo market was also hit by a strengthening yen, which hurts exporters by making their goods less competitive, and political uncertainty ahead of weekend elections expected to result in a rebuke for the ruling party.
The dollar steadied, however, in Tokyo trade, providing some comfort to nervous investors.
South Korean share prices plunged 4.1 percent on a sell-off by foreign investors, with Taipei down 4.22 percent and Manila off 3.8 percent.
"The global markets sell-off will mean tightening of liquidity in days ahead. We are not out of the woods yet," said Andrew Holland, managing director of DSP Merrill Lynch in Mumbai, India's financial capital.
In Sydney, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 175.6 points or 2.8 percent, an even bigger drop than in the aftermath of the slump on Shanghai financial markets in February
Singapore share prices closed down 2.4 percent while Bangkok was down more than three percent in late trade.
In Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng index fell 2.76 percent, dealers said stocks such as banking giant HSBC fell on worries about the US sub-prime market, for which it has already put aside massive provisions.
"Indications of further weakness in the US housing market are therefore making everyone nervous," said Kitty Chan, director at Celestial Asia Securities in Hong KOng.
One of the few markets to escape a rout was Shanghai, which was only slightly down after hitting a record high Thursday.
Chinese shares have been boosted by robust corporate earnings and expectations the government is finished for now with measures to cool the fast growing economy.
Japanese stocks decline 2.36 percent
Fri Jul 27, 2:31 AM ET
Japanese stocks tumbled Friday, hurt by a sharp decline overnight on Wall Street, recent yen strength and uncertainty about weekend elections.
The Nikkei 225 index lost 418.28 points, or 2.36 percent, to close at 17,283.81 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index briefly fell nearly 3 percent late in the session before recouping some losses.
Investors were rattled after Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses this year Thursday amid anxiety over the U.S. mortgage and corporate lending markets.
The Dow plunged 311.50 points or 2.26 percent, to 13,473.57, its biggest point-drop since Feb. 27, when a fall in the Shanghai stock market rattled world exchanges.
The yen's appreciation against the dollar also took a toll on exporters like Honda Motor Co., computer maker Fujitsu Ltd. and machine tool company Fanuc Ltd. The dollar fell to 118.70 yen in afternoon trading in Tokyo, down from 119.46 yen late Thursday in New York.
Investors were also anxious about Sunday's upper house elections. Recent newspaper polls have predicted that the long ruling Liberal Democratic Party could win fewer than a third of the seats contested in Sunday's upper house elections.
A defeat would not immediately threaten its hold on power, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could face pressure to resign from other leaders within his party and from the public.
The broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the exchange's first section, closed down 37.47 points, or 2.16 percent, at 1,699.71 points.
Volatility sweeps global markets
European shares made a volatile start to trade on Friday - rallying after early losses which were prompted by worries over interest rate levels.
In London, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.9% before rebounding into positive territory, easing fears that Thursday's share slump would be extended.
French and Germany's key share indexes also made up their early losses.
World markets have been hit by concerns that higher interest rates will hit company profits and takeover deals.
Worrying conditions
The FTSE 100 was trading up 47.7 points, 0.76% at 6,300 by 1010 BST - having lost 3.2% on Thursday - its biggest one-day percentage loss since 2002.
The stock market as a whole may be set for some dismal days
Robert Peston
BBC Business Editor
Analysts had predicted a further dip when UK trading resumed, but said that because most of the year's gains had been wiped out in one day, the market was now undervalued.
Germany's Dax share index was up 0.2% while France's Cac-40 index was up 0.6%.
In Asia, the Wall Street slump on Thursday led to Japan's Nikkei average closing down 418.28 points, or 2.4%, at 17,283.81, while Hong Kong's index ended 2.7% lower.
This followed New York's Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 311.5 points, or 2.3%, at 13,473.57.
Analysts and investors have been warning that a number of factors are combining to create worrying conditions for equity and credit markets.
Over the past few years there has been a boom in company profits, house prices and mergers and acquisitions.
Driving this have been low interest rates that have made it cheap for companies and consumers to borrow cash and finance purchases.
That period of cheap cash now seems to been coming to an end, with central banks worldwide, including the Bank of England, raising their rates to slow stubbornly high inflation.
At the same time, oil prices have climbed, raising fears that inflation could also pick up again because of higher energy costs.
'Appreciating risk'
"Worries that have been out there for the past couple of years are coming to a head right now," said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.
Markets are in "risk reduction mode", said Thomas di Galoma of Jefferies & Co.
As stock prices tumbled bonds rallied, with investors looking for assets that could guarantee them steady, and relatively safe returns.
"You have a classic flight-to-quality rally," said Dean Junkans of Wells Fargo Private Bank, adding that markets outside of bonds were "finally appreciating risk".