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Obesity Threatens to Cut U.S. Life Expectancy, New Analysis Suggests

2010-11-22 15:39:10

Over the next few decades, life expectancy for the average American could decline by as much as 5 years unless aggressive efforts are made to slow rising rates of obesity, according to a team of scientists supported in part by the National Institute on Aging (NIA), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS).

The U.S. could be facing its first sustained drop in life expectancy in the modern era, the researchers say, but this decline is not inevitable if Americans particularly younger ones trim their waistlines or if other improvements outweigh the impact of obesity. The new report in the March 17, 2005 issue of The New England Journal of Medicine appears little more than a year after the DHHS unveiled a new national education campaign and research strategy to combat obesity and excessive weight.

The new analysis, by S. Jay Olshansky, PhD, of the University of Illinois at Chicago, Leonard Hayflick, Ph.D., of the University of California, San Francisco, Robert N. Butler, M.D., of the International Longevity Center in New York, and others* suggests that the methods used to establish life expectancy projections, which have long been based on historic trends, need to be reassessed. This reevaluation is particularly important, they say, as obesity rates surge in today s children and young adults.

Forecasting life expectancy by extrapolating from the past is like forecasting the weather on the basis of its history, Olshansky and his colleagues write. Looking out the window, we see a threatening storm obesity that will, if unchecked, have a negative effect on life expectancy.

Unlike historic life expectancy forecasts, which rely on past mortality trends, the Olshansky group bases their projection on an analysis of body mass indexes and other factors that could potentially affect the health and well-being of the current generation of children and young adults, some of whom began having weight problems very early in life. The authors say that unless steps are taken to curb excessive weight gain, younger Americans will likely face a greater risk of mortality throughout life than previous generations.

This work paints a disturbing portrait of the potential effect that life styles of baby boomers and the next generation could have on life expectancy, says Richard M. Suzman, Ph.D., Associate Director of the NIA for Behavioral and Social Research. Indeed, Suzman notes, obesity may already have had an effect. The sharp increase of obesity among people now in their 60s, he suggests, may be one explanation why the gains in U.S. life expectancy at older ages have been less than those of other developed countries in recent years.

But it is critical to note that the reduced life expectancy forecast by the study is not inevitable, and there is room for optimism, Suzman says. Government and private sector efforts are mobilizing against obesity, and increased education, improved medical treatments, and reduced smoking can tip the balance in favor of reduced mortality and continued improvements in life expectancy.

For instance, smoking significantly reduces the life expectancy of the average smoker, Suzman says, so obesity is just one of many factors that will need to be accounted for, together or separately, in projecting how Americans will age. The NIA supports several projects on population demography that forecast life and health expectancy, research which is critically important to policy makers looking at the implications of an aging population.

According to the NEJM report, studies suggest that two-thirds of American adults are overweight (having a body mass index BMI of 25 or more) or obese (having a BMI of 30 or more)**. One study cited by the authors indicates that the prevalence of obesity in U.S. adults has increased about 50 percent per decade since 1980. Additional research has shown that people who are severely obese with a BMI greater than 45 live up to 20 years less than people who are not overweight. Some researchers have estimated that obesity causes about 300,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. In addition, obesity is fueling an epidemic of type 2 diabetes, which also reduces lifespan.

To estimate the overall effect of obesity on life expectancy in the U.S., Olshansky and his colleagues calculated the reduction in death rates that would occur if everyone who is currently obese were to achieve the difficult goal of losing enough weight to reach an optimal BMI of 24. The calculation was based, in part, on age, race, and sex-specific prevalence of obesity in the United States from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Based on these calculations, the researchers estimated that life expectancy at birth would be higher by 0.33 to 0.93 year for white men, 0.30 to 0.81 year for white women, 0.30 to 1.08 year for black men, and 0.21 to 0.73 year for black women if obesity did not exist.

The overall reduction in life expectancy of one-third to three-fourths of a year attributed to obesity in this analysis exceeds the negative effect of all accidental deaths combined, and could deteriorate over time, the researchers said.

These trends suggest that the relative influence of obesity on the life expectancy of future generations could be markedly worse than it is for current generations, Olshansky and the authors conclude in their report. In other words, the life-shortening effect of obesity could rise to two to five years, or more, in the coming decades, as the obese who are now at younger ages carry their elevated risk of death into middle and older ages.

The projected decline contrasts with estimates by other leading researchers, which predict a continuation of the historic trend of increasing life expectancy in America and Europe dating back to the 1850s, according to Dr. Suzman. In fact, he points out that the experience of other developed nations is instructive as a barometer of how much room might exist to increase U.S. life expectancy. More than 20 other developed nations, including France, Japan, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom have a higher average life expectancy than the U.S. Women in Japan, for example, live about 5 years longer than women in the U.S. There is little evidence that life expectancy in these countries is approaching any kind of limit, Suzman says.

In March 2004, the DHHS launched public awareness campaign, entitled Healthy Lifestyles and Disease Prevention, to encourage American families to take small, manageable steps within their current lifestyle, such as using the stairs instead of the elevator, to ensure effective, long-term weight control. The campaign includes multi-media public service announcements (PSAs) and a new interactive website, www.smallstep.gov.

In addition, the NIA has developed a free exercise guide for older adults, which is available online at www.nia.nih.gov. The NIH and other Federal agencies also offer free information about excessive weight and what can be done about it, including the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases http://win.niddk.nih.gov/publications/choosing.htm, the Food and Drug Administration http://www.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/wh-wght.html, and the Federal Consumer Information Center http://www.pueblo.gsa.gov/cic_text/health/works4you/weightloss.htm.

This research was also supported by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Chicago and the Charles H. Hood Foundation.

The NIA is one of 27 Institutes and Centers at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), part of the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. The NIA leads the Federal Government effort conducting and supporting research on the biomedical and social and behavioral aspects of aging and the problems of older people. For more information on aging-related research and the NIA, please visit the NIA website at www.nia.nih.gov. The public may also call for publications describing these efforts and offering health information for older people and their families at 1-800-222-2225, the toll free number for the National Institute on Aging Information Center.

Olshansky SJ, Passaro DJ, Hershow RC, Layden J, Carnes BA, Brody J, Hayflick L, Butler RN, Allison DB, and Ludwig DS, A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century, New England Journal of Medicine, 352:11, pp. 1138-1145.
* BMI is a number that shows body weight adjusted for height. BMI can be calculated with simple math using inches and pounds, or meters and kilograms. For adults aged 20 years or older, BMI falls into one of these categories: underweight, normal, overweight, or obese. Based on BMI, a 6-foot-tall man, for instance, is considered overweight if he weighs more than 190 pounds and obese if he weighs greater than 220 pounds. A 5-foot-4 woman is considered overweight if she weighs more than 150 pounds and obese if her weight exceeds 173 pounds.

CONTACT:

Doug Dollemore

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Wednesday, March 16, 2005

5:00 p.m. ET

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Posted: 2010891@569.37

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stranger

Life Expectancy on Decline? Health Blog

May 4th, 2010

It is said that for a parent to outlive their child is one of life s most soul shattering experiences a total disruption of the natural order. It is also a staple of Hollywood films from Pet Sematary to Ordinary People. Unfortunately, it looks that we now have an example of life imitating art and not just for a handful of families. If current projections are correct, children dying before their parents is about to become the norm.

A new study published in the April 12 issue of the International Journal of Obesity reports that Americans born between 1966 and 1985 became obese at a much earlier age than their parents, and they are not dropping the extra pounds. Plus, as I constantly remind readers, far more young people are obese now than back a generation or so ago. This makes it much more likely that they ll be outlived by their parents, the baby boomers.

In a news release, researcher Joyce Lee, MD, MPH, a pediatric endocrinologist at the University of Michigan, reiterates this point. Our research indicates that higher numbers of young and middle-age American adults are becoming obese at younger and younger ages. The study found 20% of people born between 1966 and 1985 were obese in their 20s. Their parents did not reach that obesity prevalence milestone until their 30s, and their grandparents did not reach that milestone until their 40s or 50s. In other words, more Americans are getting heavier earlier in their lives and carrying the extra weight longer, and the impact of this is likely to shorten life expectancy.

The link between obesity and shortened life expectancy is well established. A 2005 report by the National Institute on Aging (NIA), for example, showed that the average American is on track to lose five years of life expectancy due to increasing rates of obesity. The researchers analyzed trends in mortality rates as well as trends in body mass indexes and other factors that could affect the health of the current generation of children and young adults. They concluded that without aggressive steps to curb the rise of obesity, children and young adults will face a much greater risk of mortality throughout their lives than their elders.

The NIA authors reported studies showing that two-thirds of American adults are overweight and that the prevalence of obesity in U.S. adults has increased about 50 percent per decade since 1980. They pointed to additional research indicating that severely obese people live up to 20 years less than people who are not overweight. Some researchers estimated that obesity causes about 300,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. In addition, obesity is fueling an epidemic of type-2 diabetes, which also reduces lifespan.

Richard M. Suzman, Ph.D., Associate Director of the NIA for Behavioral and Social Research said, This work paints a disturbing portrait of the potential effect that lifestyles of baby boomers and the next generation could have on life expectancy. But it is critical to note that the reduced life expectancy forecast by the study is not inevitable, and there is room for optimism. Government and private sector efforts are mobilizing against obesity, and increased education, improved medical treatments, and reduced smoking can tip the balance in favor of reduced mortality and continued improvements in life expectancy.

Back in 2003, a study of 14,000 Americans published in the Journal of the American Medical Association took a darker view. The director of that study, Dr. David Allison of the University of Alabama, said, Obesity has a profound effect on life span. It increases the risk for several life-threatening conditions, including heart disease, diabetes and some types of cancer. Younger people are especially vulnerable, in part because they have more years to live and more time for the obesity to take its toll. And more recent research published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2009 also makes Dr. Suzman s hopeful outlook seem a bit naive. That study showed that if the current trends in obesity continue, by 2020, nearly half the U.S population (45%) will be obese by World Health Organization standards. This means that even more people will experience the increased risks for heart disease, diabetes and other health complications associated with obesity.

I ve written many times that we can t continue to eat more and do less without putting on weight. I recently discussed the impact of increased portion sizes at restaurants. And the impact of our greater reliance on processed, calorie rich foods is a well-worn subject in my blog posts. Still the obesity challenge remains. If it continues unabated, the favorite parental threat, Over my dead body, will one-day make no sense, since so many kids won t last long enough to see their own parents die.

--- Mobile internet site for reading on mobile phones, smartphones, small screens and slow internet connections. ---http://mpggalaxy.mine.bz/www/BB/mobile_news/threads/index_last.html

Posted: 2010891@569.83

stranger

This is all the more worrying as rich european and asian urban populations are following the american trends.

Processed food, too large portions, excess of salt, sugar and fat, excessive eating of meat and dairy products, insufficient eating of fresh fruits and vegetables, short time for lunch, lack of knowledge about food properties, lack of physical activities are indicators of the despise and lack of attention we bare to our food. Which turns into our body. Thus to us and the knowledge of ourselves.

A look at the world prevalence of obesity reminds us that food traditions in Europe and Asia could be a solution.

We should pay more attention to mediterranean, japanese ot chinese ways of eating, but this supposes changes in the agro industry, in agriculture, in advertising, in people tastes and in our way of looking at food.

Education is the solution to solve this issue while 1 billion people have the biggest difficulties to access to diversified food and drinkable water.

And we will use corn and wheat to move the vehicles that prevent us to walk, trigerring the rise of prices of corn and wheat in developping countries ?

Scarcity and abundancy can be dangerous. Temperance must be taught.