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Issued on 2024 Jan 04 0853 UTC
A shock was observed in the solar wind parameters at 14:25 UTC on January 03. The magnetic field jumped from 5 to 10 nT, and the solar wind speed jumped from 420 to 450 km/s and then more gradually increased to 480 km/s. It is not clear which of the events from the past days is responsible for this shock arrival. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be disturbed with unsettled to active conditions possible depending on the Bz.
Issued on 2024 Jan 04 0903 UTC
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold level at 20:00 UTC on January 15 and has continued to gradually increase. In the absence of high flux flares from the Sun we expect the proton flux to decrease in the coming days.