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2012-11-22 12:02:38
To become an energy giant, Canada needs capital, people and pipes
Nov 17th 2012 | FORT MCMURRAY | from the print edition
THE oil town of Fort McMurray gets a bad press. GQ magazine portrayed it as a
hellhole of testosterone and tattoos, where drunken oilworkers shower strippers
with cash and get into fights because there s nothing else to do. Esquire
called it the little Canadian town that might just destroy the world .
There is a grimy grain of truth in such stories. Extracting oil from Alberta s
oil sands does indeed cause environmental problems. And Fort McMurray is a bit
macho. It is a frontier town of ultra-low temperatures (-20 C is about average
in winter; -51 C has been recorded) and ultra-high wages (average household
income is C$178,000, which is also $178,000). The population is mostly young
and male. Some do indeed prefer more raucous entertainment than say, joining a
book group to discuss Eat, Pray, Love . I wish they d ban truck nuts, sighs
a female resident, referring to the toy testicles with which some young men
decorate their trucks.
But there is another story about Fort McMurray: a tale of innovation and energy
reserves so vast that they could have geopolitical consequences. Canada s oil
sands contain some 170 billion barrels of oil that can be recovered
economically with today s technology (and perhaps ten times that in total).
Canada thus has the world s third-largest proven oil reserves, after Saudi
Arabia and Venezuela. And since most oil-rich nations reserves are under state
control, Canada has the largest reserves that private companies are free to
invest in more than half of the global total, reckons Ken Hughes, Alberta s
energy minister.
Other countries welcome the idea of plentiful energy from a stable democracy.
It could reduce the rich world s dependence on the Middle East. There are no
bribes or body bags , grins an oil-industry booster. And the potential is
immense. A new study by the Alberta Geological Survey estimates that the
province has huge resources in its shale beds as well as its oil sands: 3,400
trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 420 billion barrels of oil numbers
comparable to America s.
However, Canada s output of 3.5m barrels of oil a day is less than half that of
America. (America s output is set to exceed Saudi Arabia s; see article.)
Several problems hobble Canadian energy: geology, capital, people and pipes.
First, geology. Canadian oil is hard to extract. It mostly comes in the form of
bitumen, which is hard as a hockey puck at 10 C, as the Canadian Association
of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), an industry body, puts it. If it is far below
ground, it must be blasted with steam to make it flow, and then pumped out.
This process (known as steam-assisted gravity drainage ) was developed in
Alberta. In the past decade, with high oil prices, it has made the oil sands
economical to exploit. But precariously so: the best projects break even when
oil is $30 a barrel, but many new ones need it to be $80 or more. (West Texas
Intermediate is currently $85.)
Canada gets less than it should for its oil because it lacks enough pipelines.
Environmentalists oppose them, arguing that pipes leak (which is always
possible) and that Canada s heavy oil causes more greenhouse-gas emissions than
other oil (which is true, but not by much). President Barack Obama has delayed
the approval of a pipeline called Keystone XL, which would move Canadian oil to
America s Gulf coast. A decision is expected soon.
Alex Pourbaix of TransCanada, the firm behind the Keystone pipeline, insists
that the project will be good for both countries. Canada forgoes a fortune
perhaps $20 a barrel because it cannot get its oil to the sea. Canadian gas
sells at a discount, too: North American prices are far lower than those in
Asia.
Getting the oil to the sea
Another proposed pipeline, Northern Gateway, would carry oil to Canada s west
coast, whence it could be shipped to Asia. Canada would benefit from having a
choice of customers. But the government of British Columbia, and various
aboriginal groups, have yet to say yes.
To exploit its hydrocarbons, Canada needs capital: some $50 billion-60 billion
a year, on recent trends. Such sums are far more than Canadian capital markets
can raise, says Dave Collyer of the CAPP. Canada gets plenty of foreign
investment: Syncrude, one of the biggest oil-sands developers, is a joint
venture that includes American, Chinese and Japanese partners. But lately the
country has grown frostier towards foreign capital.
In October Canada s federal government temporarily blocked a $5.2 billion bid
by Petronas, Malaysia s state energy giant, for Progress Energy Resources, a
Canadian natural-gas company. It has yet to approve a $15 billion offer by
CNOOC, a Chinese state-owned firm, for Nexen, a Canadian oil-and-gas firm. A
deadline passed last week; a decision may come next month. Mr Hughes says he is
keen on foreign investment so long as foreign firms abide by the same rules as
Canadians; but it is not up to the provincial government.
The other big bottleneck is human capital. Hardly anyone lives near the oil
sands, so labour must be imported, from other parts of Canada and from abroad.
People from 127 countries live in Fort McMurray, says Ken Chapman of the Oil
Sands Developers Group. They speak 69 languages. The Walmart in town looks
like the United Nations, except that all the shivering Africans are buying
woolly hats. Mr Hughes expects to see a skills shortfall of 100,000 people in
Alberta by 2017. Canada s immigration rules are more liberal than America s,
but firms still gripe about delays. An Irish worker in Fort McMurray complains
of having to fly to Calgary to sit a test of English proficiency. It s her
native language, and the test is online.
Companies poach staff from each other, bidding up labour costs. It would be
easier to attract workers to Fort McMurray if the town were more liveable; a
one-bedroom flat can cost $2,000 a month. To build more homes, however, the
town must wrestle with provincial red tape and also attract legions of
builders, plumbers and electricians, all at inflated wages.
Working conditions in the oil sands are tough. Touch a metal pipe with your
bare hand at minus 40 and it sticks. It s not for everybody, shrugs an
oil-firm boss. At remote work camps, companies provide hot food, warm cabins,
broadband and squash courts. All this is costly. Many firms make equipment
elsewhere and truck it in, so that fewer people have to toil in the cold. Some
are hoping dramatically to raise the proportion of man-hours worked off-site.
With so many bottlenecks and a volatile oil price, firms are growing cautious.
Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources, among others, are putting new
investments on hold. It s the uncertainty, says Marcel Coutu, the boss of
Canadian Oil Sands, a firm that owns 37% of Syncrude. No one knows when or
whether those pipelines will be built.