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2009-12-09 13:50:00
Mike Dorning and Rebecca Christie Mike Dorning And Rebecca Christie . Tue Dec
8, 6:00 pm ET
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Americans have grown gloomier about both the economy and
the nation.s direction over the past three months even as the U.S. shows signs
of moving from recession to recovery.
Almost half the people now feel less financially secure than when President
Barack Obama took office in January, a Bloomberg National Poll shows.
Those concerns have put consumers in a miserly mood as they head to the mall
for holiday shopping, with half the country planning to spend less on gifts
than last year and few buyers willing to run up credit-card debt for Christmas.
.The recession may be over, but the administration seems to be losing the
battle when it comes to winning the hearts and minds of Americans,. says Chris
Rupkey, chief financial economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New
York. .This is important because the spending of consumers is the main factor
that will turn the economic recovery into a self- sustaining one..
Obama yesterday addressed anxiety over the economy with a speech proposing new
spending on the nation.s transportation system, tax credits to spur hiring by
small businesses and incentives to make homes more energy efficient.
Unemployment in November stood at 10 percent, a drop from 10.2 percent in
October yet still the second month in a row the figure stood in double digits.
No. 1 Concern
The economy is the country.s top concern, with persistently high unemployment
the greatest threat the public sees. Eight of 10 Americans rate joblessness a
high risk to the economy in the next two years, outranking the federal budget
deficit, which is cited by 7 of 10. An increase in taxes is named as a high
risk by almost 6 of 10.
Fewer than 1 in 3 Americans think the economy will improve in the next six
months. They are pessimistic that the government will succeed in reducing
unemployment or lowering the budget deficit.
A year into Obama.s presidency, only 32 percent of poll respondents believe the
country is headed in the right direction, down from 40 percent who said so in
September.
The mood among members of Obama.s own Democratic Party has shifted most
dramatically: While Democrats remain the most positive, the proportion saying
the country is on the right track dropped to 58 percent from 71 percent in
September. Among independents, 26 percent say the country is on the right
track, down from 29 percent in September.
The poll of 1,000 U.S. adults was conducted Dec. 3-7 by Selzer & Co., a Des
Moines, Iowa-based firm. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points. The poll includes 714 likely voters in the 2010 general election, the
margin of error for questions based on likely voters is plus or minus 3.7
percentage points.
Skeptical Over Stimulus
The country has grown increasingly skeptical of the centerpiece of Obama.s
economic agenda, the $787 billion economic-stimulus package, with 60 percent of
Americans saying it hasn.t helped the economy, up from 49 percent who said that
three months ago.
Michele Crawford, 37, a Las Vegas health-care worker who identified herself as
a Democrat, says the stimulus plan put too much money in the hands of
corporations rather than sending it directly to families through tax cuts.
.I think that was the wrong approach,. Crawford says.
For now, former President George W. Bush continues to get most of the blame for
the hard economic times. Six of 10 poll respondents say the economic
difficulties Obama confronts were mostly inherited.
Blaming Bernanke, Geithner
Still, there are signs the economic doldrums are tarnishing current
officeholders.
Americans have turned against the administration.s leading economic spokesman,
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, with 33 percent viewing him unfavorably
against 26 percent with a favorable view. As recently as September, a slim
plurality viewed Geithner favorably.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, another public face of economic
policy though he is independent of the White House, also declined in
popularity. A third of the country views Bernanke favorably, down from 41
percent in September.
Bernanke.s standing fell even though the Fed as an institution improved, with
50 percent holding a favorable opinion versus 44 percent three months ago.
Four out of 10 respondents have no opinion on either Geithner or Bernanke.
Some of the malaise may stem from middle-class households bracing for the
expectation of greater burdens ahead, says J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer &
Co. Almost 9 in 10 poll respondents say they believe middle-class Americans
will have to make sacrifices to decrease the deficit.
.We.re Under Water.
When asked about changes in measures of personal economic well-being --
household income, job security, quality of health care, retirement savings and
home equity -- the responses changed little from September. Only 1 in 3
Americans indicated an improvement in any category.
For many consumers, that uneasiness means a shorter Christmas shopping list.
Cindy Gamet, 54, an environmental project manager who lives in Greeley,
Colorado, says her family.s prolonged encounter with financial insecurity is
leading her to cut back further this holiday season.
.The economy has been on the decline for some time,. Gamet says. .Our major
investment, which was our home, it went south. So now we.re under water..
.We.re Spenders.
Though it goes against her inclination -- .we.re spenders,. Gamet says -- she
and her husband plan to limit gifts for their grandchildren and forgo presents
to their adult children.
.We.re going to do what we can for the kids, but the adults are just going to
have to understand,. Gamet says.
Just 8 percent of people plan to spend more on gifts this year than they did
last year, while 47 percent say they will spend less.
The country is especially leery of taking on new debt for the holidays, with 82
percent of respondents saying they plan to pay for Christmas gifts solely from
cash on hand or savings.
The Grinch may even have come to the Internet, where commerce has been shifting
in recent years. Only a quarter of respondents -- 27 percent -- say they will
buy more gifts over the Web this year, while 42 percent say they will buy fewer
and 22 percent say they will buy nothing at all.
To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll questions, click on the
attachment tab at the top of the story.
To contact the reporters on this story: Mike Dorning in Washington at
mdorning@bloomberg.net ; To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca
Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net.