💾 Archived View for gmi.noulin.net › mobileNews › 1224.gmi captured on 2023-12-28 at 20:22:41. Gemini links have been rewritten to link to archived content

-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Harry Dent

2009-06-23 02:29:46

Harry S. Dent, Jr. (born 1950) is an American financial newsletter writer. His

latest book, The Great Depression Ahead, appeared on the New York Times

Bestseller List.

Biography

Dent was born in Berkeley, California, United States, North America.[1]

Dent received his B.A. from the University of South Carolina, where he

graduated #1 in his class. He earned an MBA from the Harvard Business School as

a Baker Scholar.[citation needed]

Dent is the Founder of HS Dent Investment Management, an investment firm based

in Tampa, Florida that advises the Dent Strategic Portfolio Fund mutual fund.

Dent is also the president and founder of the H.S. Dent Foundation and H.S.

Dent Publishing.

Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and

around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer

spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written seven books,

of which two recent ones have been bestsellers:

The Great Depression Ahead (2009)
The Next Great Bubble Boom (2004)
The Roaring 2000s Investor (1999)
The Roaring 2000s (1998)
The Great Jobs Ahead (1995)
The Great Boom Ahead (1993)
Our Power to Predict (1989)

The basis of Dent's research is the highly predictable nature of consumer

spending based on a family formation pattern - minimal spending as young

adults, spending more as raising children, peaking in that spending as children

are leaving home, and then slowing spending during the last 15 years of working

life (48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.

In the late 1980s, Dent forecast that the Japanese economy, then the darling of

the world, would soon enter a slowdown that would last more than a decade. In

the early 1990s, he predicted that the DOW would reach 10k. Both of these

predictions were met with much skepticism, and yet both eventually came to

pass.

In Japan, Dent was using their peak of 45-50 year olds (1990-1994) as the

beginning of a long slowdown. In the US, used, and continues to use, the peak

year for 48-year-olds, 2009, as the top of a long term growth pattern.

In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout

the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was

repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would

reach 13-20k. In late 2006 he revised his forecasts to much lower levels,

estimating the Dow would reach 16-18k and the NASDAQ 3-4k. In January 2006, he

predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15,000 by the end of the year. It ended

2006 at 12,463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at

13,264, again significantly lower than Dent's revised prediction of 15,000 by

early 2008. Since then, the Dow crossed 14,000 in late 2007 before retrenching.

Dent popularized the baby boomer age-wave theory.[2] According to him, as a

result of baby-boomers seeing their children leave home, those boomers are then

free to focus on paying down debt and saving for retirement, which means

spending less, which means the stock-market should peak sometime between 2007

and 2009. It is based on his observation that spending peaks around age 50 for

individuals at the average point for a family's children to leave home.

Criticism

Dent makes heavy use of charts, cycles, and trends apart from his demographic

theories in predicting short and intermediate term economic and stock cycles.

His work is primarily based on the assumption that most long term stock market

performance can be explained by studying long term trends and charts from the

past. His critics question the assumption that clues to all major stock market

events can be found in the relatively short history of well functioning stock

markets in the world. His work has also been criticized for heavy use of data

dredging- where it is easy to find patterns in past data and assign predictive

powers to them when many such patterns occur in every data collection purely by

chance. Dent has also been criticized for being downright wrong on several of

his predictions by many economists. In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial

reporting site awarded him the The "Ultimate Charlatan"[3] Award. They write:

"The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock

market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds

again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper

in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History ... In his 2006 work, Dent

predicted, The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ

advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and

potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 The Great Boom resurging into its final

and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late

2009 to early 2010. ... Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's

1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the

fixin's. According to the book, only a year remains before the Dow breaks

40,000 and the Nasdaq hits 20,000, at which time we'll simply amplify our

fortunes by shorting stocks in the coming depression. We can t underestimate

how big this final move up will be before the depression kicks in, since The

Dow and Nasdaq are currently quite a bit lower than they were back in 1999 when

The Roaring 2000s was published."

--- Mobile internet site for reading on mobile phones, smartphones, small

screens and slow internet connections. ---http://mpggalaxy.mine.bz/www/BB/

mobile_news/threads/index_last.html

Posted: 2009474@425.92

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

stranger

L'homme a suffisamment d montr son s rieux par le pass pour tre sinon

entendu, au moins cout . Selon l'analyste Harry Dent, l' conomie mondiale va

conna tre dans les deux prochaines ann es une crise plus grave encore que celle

qu'elle traverse actuellement. En 2004, l'Am ricain avait pr dit dans un livre

(1) un pic de croissance entre 2005 et 2009, avant une crise profonde

l'horizon 2010.

D'apr s cet conomiste, qui base notamment ses analyses sur l' volution d

mographique et l influence des courbes de natalit , le pire est devant nous

contrairement l'avis de plusieurs experts qui consid rent avec optimisme

certains signes de reprise.

Et si le pire de la crise tait imminent?

L'analyste am ricain Harry Dent, qui avait annonc dans un livre en 2004 une d

pression conomique profonde l'horizon 2010, pr dit que le monde va conna tre

dans les deux ans un crash encore plus grave que l'actuel.

L'homme a suffisamment d montr son s rieux par le pass pour tre sinon

entendu, au moins cout . Selon l'analyste Harry Dent, l' conomie mondiale va

conna tre dans les deux prochaines ann es une crise plus grave encore que celle

qu'elle traverse actuellement. En 2004, l'Am ricain avait pr dit dans un livre

(1) un pic de croissance entre 2005 et 2009, avant une crise profonde

l'horizon 2010.

D'apr s cet conomiste, qui base notamment ses analyses sur l' volution d

mographique et l influence des courbes de natalit , le pire est devant nous

contrairement l'avis de plusieurs experts qui consid rent avec optimisme

certains signes de reprise.

La g n ration du baby boom va d sormais limiter ses d penses, provoquant une

spirale la baisse des march s immobilier et boursier, affirme Harry Dent,

selon lequel les march s boursiers vont continuer monter au cours des

prochains mois mais vont nouveau s' crouler vers la fin de l'ann e quand le

syst me bancaire conna tra une nouvelle d b cle qui culminera en 2011.

L' conomiste insiste sur le fait que la g n ration des baby boomers dans le

monde occidental consomme moins avec l' ge, comme cela s'est d j v rifi au

Japon dans les ann es 1990 . (Leurs) enfants vont quitter le nid et l' conomie

va ralentir exactement comme cela s'est pass au Japon dans les ann es 1990.

(1) 2005-2009, 5 ann es de croissance devant nous , Harry Dent, ditions

First.