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In Kevin Phillip's new book (The Politics of Rich and Poor, 1990)
he argues that the Republican political cycle is coming to an end.
If not in George Bush's defeat in 92, then the next term. He
argued that the Republicans would come into their own in a book
published in '67 called The Emerging Republican Majority. In '68
Nixon was elected and it has been a Republican White House since
with a "Carter blip" after Watergate. What Phillips argues is
that there are these long cycles of power in American politics
with "blips" or what he calls "minority interruptions" of oppo-
sition parties in for a term or two. Phillips was the chief Re-
publican strategist for the 1968 Presidential Campaign.
________________________
Cycles of American Presidential
Politics since 1800
---------
Initial period of Minority
One Party Interruption
Cycle Dominance
---------------------------------------------------------------
Jeffersonian Jefferson 1800-08
Era Madison 1808-16 Quincy Adams 1824-28
Democratic- Monroe 1816-24 (National-Republican)
Republican (24 years)
1800-28
----------------------------
Jacksonian Jackson 1828-36 Harrison-Tyler (Whig)
Era Van Buren 1836-40 1840-44
Democratic Polk 1844-48 Taylor-Fillmore (Whig)
1828-1860 (16 of 20 Years) 1848-52
----------------------------
Civil War Lincoln-Johnson Cleveland 1884-88
Republican 1860-68 1892-96
1860-96 Grant 1868-76 (No presidential candidate
Hayes 1876-80 of either party won a
Garfield-Arthur majority of the popular
1880-84 vote between 1876-92)
(24 years)
----------------------------
Industrial McKinley-T.R. Roosevelt
Republican 1896-1908
1896-1932 Taft 1908-1912 Wilson 1912-20
Harding-Coolidge (Democratic)
1920-28
Hoover 1928-1932
(28 of 36 years)
----------------------------
New Deal Roosevelt-Truman Eisenhower (Republican)
Democratic 1932-1952 1952-1960
1932-68 (20 years)
Kennedy-Johnson
1960-68
----------------------------
Civil Nixon-Ford
Disturbance 1968-76 Carter (Democrat)
Republican Reagan-Bush
1968- ??? 1980-???
.
All of these six eras began with watershed elections in which
(1) the previous incumbent party was defeated and (2) a new alignment
of party presidential voting--resting on a new coalition--was
established, which kept its essential shape for at least 20 years.
Interestingly, all three Republican hegemonies have produced a
"capitalist heyday" during the second half of the cycle.