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I don't know how long until people cannot use pens, but it seems their days are numbered.
Whatever time it might take, certain stages seem inevitable.
Those currently in the government seem unlikely to change the education system to remove pens. I find it more likely that a group who broadly haven't used a pen more than once a decade would find it natural to remove teachings they've never used.
Once it leaves the school system for one country, others may follow. And somewhere along this road, as pens and paper become rarer, they will become more expensive, and then novelty items, which will then put further stress on dawdling governments to remove the requirement to use these antiquated instrument
I feel those days are fast approaching; I couldn't identify my own friends' handwriting. But then again, I can't complain too much, as I have no plans to start writing letters.
The last use of writing I see is in note-taking. Various note-taking software advertises its *wondrous* ability to 'draw anywhere', and 'draw lines', and 'make lists' - in short, they want to replicate the freedom of paper and pen, when it's clearly easier to just write, then take a photograph of the notes.