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Monetarists Anonymous - After a spectacular crash, an online currency makes a

1970-01-01 02:00:00

rlp

Sep 29th 2012 | from the print edition

GIVE me control of a nation s money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.

So said Mayer Amschel Rothschild, founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty.

What would he make of Bitcoin, an online currency with no issuing authority

whatsoever? Despite being written off following a speculative bubble and crash

last year, the online cryptocurrency is still going strong, not least thanks to

its ability to circumnavigate the law.

Bitcoin was devised in 2009 by a mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakomoto.

It is the world s first, and so far only, decentralised online currency.

Instead of a central bank, Bitcoins can be issued by anyone with a powerful

personal computer: it mints them by solving extremely difficult mathematical

problems. The problems are automatically made harder to ensure that the overall

supply of Bitcoins cannot grow too fast. They are traded online, with

transactions cryptographically authenticated.

These curious capabilities make Bitcoins a combination of a commodity and a

fiat currency (creating the coins is referred to as mining and they have

value only because people accept them). But boosters inflated a Bitcoin bubble.

Shortly after the currency launched, articles spread around the internet

arguing that Bitcoins would protect wealth from hyperinflation and that early

adopters would make a fortune. The dollar price of a Bitcoin currency unit

climbed from a few cents in 2010 to a peak of nearly $30 in June 2011 (see

chart), according to data compiled by Mt Gox, a popular online Bitcoin

exchange. Inevitably, the currency then crashed back down, bottoming out at $2

in November 2011.

But in the nine months since, Bitcoin has recovered. One unit now costs $12,

and the volume of transactions is increasing. Though the price still fluctuates

against the dollar, it is less volatile than it was, which makes it a better

store of value. Its use as a means of exchange is also getting easier: an

increasing number of online retailers take the currency, and new smartphone

apps make Bitcoins almost as easy to use as cash. A proliferation of exchanges

means that it is relatively easy to swap Bitcoins for conventional currencies.

Tony Gallippi, the boss of Bitpay, which processes Bitcoin payments for

retailers, says that his client list has increased from around 100 in March to

1,100 now. These are mostly e-commerce businesses, selling things like domain

names and web hosting. But the list also includes a taxi-driver in Chicago and

a dentist in Finland. Credit cards weren t designed for the internet, he

says. Bitcoin transactions cost less and cannot be reversed in the way

credit-card transactions can be. This is important for firms selling to

customers in countries known for credit-card fraud, such as Russia or Belarus.

But another big reason for the currency s success is its role in dodgy online

markets. Although tracing Bitcoin transactions to real people is not

impossible, the currency s relative anonymity and ease of use makes it a

natural conduit for criminal funds. On the website Silk Road, a sort of eBay

for drugs hidden in a dark corner of the web known as Tor, Bitcoins are the

only means of transaction. Buyers transfer their Bitcoins into an escrow

account where they sit until receipt of the goods is confirmed. Bitcoin

transactions on Silk Road are now worth $1.9m per month, estimates Nicolas

Christin, a researcher at Carnegie Mellon University.

This may explain why users put up with a big drawback. Bitcoins tend not to be

very secure, says Richard Booth, a consultant at RSA, a cyber-security firm. As

some users have found to their cost, hackers can sometimes steal Bitcoins from

users online vaults. In the latest raid, on September 5th, hackers stole

$250,000 in Bitcoins from Bitfloor, a large American exchange, causing it to

shut down its operation. But although the raid caused a dip in the price of

Bitcoins, it soon recovered. It turns out that a currency can thrive even when

no one is making laws for it.

from the print edition | Finance and economics