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Credit for this post goes to, and the author of the main article is,
Marc Doll [1] (a climate researcher).
I'm putting Marc's post here because it is, to date, the best all
encompassing pr'ecis of the situation we find ourselves in. It is
terrifying, awesome and inspiring in equal measure. It may not change
your life or your chosen life style, but then again it may. I want to
read it all slowly, and seek out collaboration of the facts from peer
reviewed sources I would trust. I might link some of it later.
I have changed nothing of the text in Marc's post, which I seized from
facebook on 29th April, but I have formatted it and in one or two
places, translated from Canadian into English. I trust he forgives me.
- : -
But it is Worse Than That. -- April 29th, 2019 [0]
--------------------------------------------------
I realise there is something I have known for some time but have never
said, and, since I have just spent another 4 hours of my life in
climate change academia I have to get this out of my system.
Please understand that many you reading this won't live to an old
age... and likely will start scrolling after one or 2 more
paragraphs... (edit...Ok I was wrong on this point. This is now my 2nd
most shared post of all time..(edit)...make that my most shared)"
The IPCC report and Paris accord are incredibly overly optimistic and
that commits the world to a target that means the death of hundreds of
millions if not more.
But it is worse than that.
Even the commitments made by countries in the Paris accord don't get us
to a 2 degree world.
But it is worse than that.
The 2 degree target is now unattainable (unless of course the entirety
of civilisation does a 180 today...) and is based on geo-engineering
the climate of the earth as well as the sequestering of every molecule
of carbon we have produced since 1987, as well as every molecule we are
producing today, as well as every molecule we produce tomorrow.... with
magical technologies that don't exist, wont exist and, even if they did
would likely cause as many if not more problems than they fix.
But it is worse than that.
The 2 degree target of the IPCC does not factor in the feedback loops
such as the increase absorption of heat due to a drastic reduction in
the albedo (reflectivity) effect caused by the 70% loss of arctic
ice,..- the release of methane from a thawing arctic. (there is more
energy stored in the arctic methane than there is in coal in the
world). This is called the methane dragon. If the process of the
release of the methane, currently frozen in the soil and ocean beds of
the arctic, which may have already begun, but if it spins out of
control we are looking a an 8 degree rise in temperature.
But it is worse than that.
The report which gives us 12 years to get our head's out of our arses
underestimated the amount of heat stored in the world's oceans, as we
discovered in mid-January by 40%... so no , we don't have 12 more
years.
But it is worse than that
The conservative, American Meteorological Society indicates that our
wilful blindness and greed will have effects well beyond the climate.
The worlds oceans will see a 150% increase in acidity and over a full
degree Celsius in warming. This well down the path to the Permian
extinction where 96% of marine species disappeared forever.
But it is worse than that.
The IPCC report ignores the effects of humans messing up the Nitrogen
cycle through agricultural fertilisers and more... Don't go down this
rabbit hole if you want to sleep at night.
But it is worse than that.
Sea level rise will not be gradual. Even assuming that the billions of
tons of water that is currently being dumped down to the ground level
of Greenland isn't creating a lubricant which eventually will allow the
ice to free-flow into the northern oceans; it is only the friction to
the islands surface that is currently holding the ice back. Then
consider the same process is happening in Antarctica but is also
coupled with the disappearance of the ice shelves which act as
buttresses holding the glaciers from free flowing into the southern
ocean. then factor in thermal expansions; the simple fact that
warmer water takes up more space and It becomes clear that we are not
looking at maintaining the current 3.4mm/yr increase in sea level rise
(which incidentally is terrifying when you multiply it out over decades
and centuries.) We will be looking at major calving events that will
result in much bigger yearly increases coupled with an exponential
increase in glacial melting. We know that every increase of 100ppm of
C02 increases sea level by about 100 feet. We have already baked in 130
feet of sea level rise. It is just a question of how long it is going
to take to get there... and then keep on rising..
But it is worse than that.
Insects are disappearing at 6 times the speed of larger animals and at
a rate of about 2.5% of their biomass every year. These are our
pollinators. These are links in our food chain. These represent the
basic functioning of every terrestrial ecosystem.
But it is worse than that.
58% of the biomass of vertebrae life on earth has been lost since 1970.
That is basically in my lifetime!
But it is worse than that.
The amount of Carbon we add to the atmosphere is equal to a yearly a
human caused forest fire 20% bigger than the continent of Africa. Yes,
that is every single year!
But it is worse than that.
Drought in nearly every food producing place in the world is expected
to intensify by mid-century and make them basically unusable by the end
of the century... Then factor in the end of Phosphorus (China and
Russia have already stopped exporting it knowing this) and the
depletion of aquifers and you come to the conclusion that feeding the
planet becomes impossible.
But it is worse than that.
We can no longer save the society that we live in and many of us are
going to be dead long before our life expectancy would suggest.
If your idea of hope is having some slightly modified Standard of
living going forward and live to ripe old age... there is no hope. This
civilisation is over...
..but there is hope..
There is a way for some to come through this and have an enjoyable life
on the other side. Every day we delay can be measured in human lives.
There will come a day of inaction when that number includes someone you
love, yourself or myself.
So we have 2 options.
Wake the fuck up. If we do we will only have to experience the end of
our society as we know it aka...the inevitable economic collapse which
is now unavoidable, but be able to save and rebuild something new on
the other side. This would require a deep adaptation. Words like
sustainability would need to be seen as toxic and our focus needs be
on regeneration.
Regeneration of soil, forests, grasslands, oceans etc.... This is all
possible.
Option 2 is the path we are on thinking that we can slowly adapt to
change. This not only ensures we experience collapse but also condemns
humanity to not just economic and social collapse but in a 4-6 or even
an 8 degree world... extinction.
I am sick of pipeline discussions. I am sick of any argument that is
predicated on the defeatist assumption that we will continue to burn
oil at an ever increasing rate simply because it is what we have always
done. Fact is if we do we are not just fucked, we are dead. I am sick
of people who don't understand how their food is produced, and its
effect on the climate.(both carnivores who eat feed-lot meat and vegans
who eat industrially-produced-mono-cropped-veggies as they are equally
guilty here. The consumption of either is devastating). I am sick of
the tons of shiny new clothes people are wearing without realizing 1 Kg
of cotton takes over 10 thousand Liters of water and incredible amounts
of energy to produce. I am sickened by the amount of that same clothing
hits the landfill in near new condition. I am sick of the argument that
our oil is less poisonous than someone else's. Firstly, no it isn't and
secondly, It doesn't fucking matter. I am sick of people that can't
even handle the ridiculously-small, only-the-tip-of-
the-iceberg-of-changes we need to accept; a carbon tax. I am sick of
the fact that the political will seems only capable of focusing on the
individual consumer through small measures like a carbon tax but no
elected Party seems to have the fortitude to enact policies that take
it to the small handful of companies that are responsible for 70% of
our current C02 production. I am sick of my own hypocrisy that allows
me to still use fossil fuels for transportation. I am sick of those who
use hypocrisy as an argument against action. I am sick of the
Leadership of my country that argues we can have economic growth and
survivable environment... we can't. I am sickened by the normalizing of
the leadership of our Southern neighbour who as the most polluting
nation in the world officially ignores even the tragedy that is the
Paris accord. I am sick that the next image I put up of my kids,
cheese, pets or bread is going to gain immeasurably more attention than
a post such as this which actually has meaning... I am sick about the
fact that all the information I referenced here is easily discoverable
in scientific journals through a simple google search but will be
characterised by many as hyperbolic.
I am confused as to who I am more upset with. Those who have fallen for
the denier propaganda, those who choose to be wilfully ignorant, those
who understand this issue and throw their hands up in a fit of lazy
despair or those who are as cognitive as I am to the urgency of this
issue yet continue living day-to-day feeling self-satisfied with their
recycling, electric car, voting record or some other equally inane
lifestyle modification while waiting for society to hit the tipping
point so they don't have to actually put their values into practice
(which despite my recent life changes still more or less includes me).
All that said...
There is a path forward.
But every day we delay the path forward includes fewer of us. Build
community, build resilience, work for food security, think
regeneration, plant food producing trees, think perennial food
production, turn your waste products into resources, eat food that does
not mine the soil and is locally produced, eat meat that is grass fed
in a holistic or intensively rotated (ideally holistically grazed in a
silvopasture ) that is used to provide nutrients to vegetation, get to
know a farmer or become one yourself. Don't be a carnivore, herbivore
or an omnivore... be a `greenivore'. Park your car, do not vote for
anyone who either ignores climate change or says we can have our cake
and eat it too, quit your job if it is fossil fuel related (it is
better than losing it... which you will), stop buying shit, stop buying
expensive cars and overly large houses and then complain that local
planet saving food costs more than Costco. Stop buying things that are
designed to break and be disposed-of, let go of this society slowly and
by your own volition (its better than being forced to do it quickly),
Rip up your lawn and plant a garden with perennial veggies, fruit
bushes, fruit trees and nut trees. Learn to compost your own poop (it
is easy and doesn't stink). Buy an apple with a blemish, Get a smaller
house on a bigger lot and regenerate that land, Plant a guerrilla
garden on a city road allowance. Return to the multi-generational
house, Realise that growth has only been a thing in human civilisation
for 250 years and it is about to end and make preparations for this
change. Teach this to your children. Buy only the necessities, don't
buy new clothes-go to the thrift store. Don't use single use plastic or
if you do re-purpose it, Unplug your garberator (yes Facebook spell
check, that is a word) and compost everything, Relearn old forgotten
skills. Don't let yourself get away with the argument that the plane is
going there anyway when you book a holiday. Understand that there is no
such thing as the new normal because next year will be worse,
Understand before you make the argument that we need to reduce human
population ... meaning the population elsewhere... that it is not
overpopulation in China or India that is causing the current problem...
It is us and our "western" lifestyle, Understand that those that are
currently arguing against refugees and climate change are both
increasing the effects of climate change and causing millions of
climate refugees... which will be arriving on Canada's doorstep because
Canada, due to our size and Northern Latitude, will on the whole have
some of the best climate refuges. Understand that every baby using
disposable diapers is responsible for the equivalent of a cube van full
and every woman using disposable feminine hygiene products is
responsible for an equivalent amount of un-compostable incredibly high
energy intensive waste that will be here for 500 years. Also understand
that there are alternatives to both.
Understand that the densification of cities is condemning those in that
density to a food-less future. Stop tolerating the middle ground on
climate change. there is no middle ground on gravity, the earth is
round, and we are on the verge of collapse.
Compilation of Climate-related articles across my feed and updated daily [2]
-----------------------------------------------------
Reflection after 30 thousand shared
When you have a post translated by several individuals into languages
as unexpected as Hungarian and Italian, tuned into pamphlets at Gretta
Thunberg `School Strikes', adopted into 2 PhD theses, inspired 2 poems
and 2 original songs you can't help but be impressed by the reach of
social media.
I spent a good amount of time reading many of the comments and shares
that the post garnered and some things surprised me.
- People are crying out for coverage of this issue. As so much of our
media institution's time and energy is wasted on the insanity of the
man I have refused to name online for over 3 years now South of the
boarder or Brexit so little is directed to our basic survival on this
planet. People don't share some anonymous dude from Canada's 8 page ,4
thousand word, science heavy rant from a personal Facebook page with
such alacrity if the information therein was well covered by the Fourth
Estate.
- It is time to stop candy coating these issues. I was originally
criticised, not for being scientifically incorrect, but for turning too
strongly to fear. The argument is that people do not get motivated by
fear. My contention at the time, and now heavily buttressed, is that
truth is not fear and when the truth is fearful, we need to face it
head on. I am now well positioned to tell you that the level of
ignorance on what our scientists are telling us is beyond reason. One
can only speculate as to why so little of what is know is making the
front pages. Covering the effects such as the most recent devastation
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi is not enough.
- The Truth does inspire change. I challenge you to click on the share
button and spend some time studying how people reacted to this post.
For the most part it is inspiring.
- Vocal climate change deniers are few and far between. Despite the
near 2 million engagements with this post I only received 3 messages
from deniers and only a dozen or so managed to muster up the incredible
amounts of courage required to but an `angry face' emoji to the post.
Information does lead people to profess to change how they live, vote
and consume. I can't count how many people sent me messages let me know
how the post affected them to their core and professed they intention
to make drastic changes. The messages were humbling and underscored how
much more we as a family still have to do to live our own values.
There were other reactions that were worthy of mention. The one I found
the most depressing were those that fully embraced the science, say we
somehow need to basically kill off a few billion people but are making
little to no change in their lives. Obviously the few billion that
needed to be removed did not include themselves...
Thank you Marc, for your hard words.
- -
References:
[0] https://rosher.net/2019/04/29/but-it-is-worse-than-that/
[1] https://www.facebook.com/SoilLifeQuadra
[2] https://www.facebook.com/SoilLifeQuadra/posts/10156900198505199