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VXX Analyse

Saturday, 22 July 2023

PROFIT TARGET: 1%

QUOTE SUMMARY

VIX-FUTURESCURVE

Show contango,backwardation of vix future curves and last 3 days closing prices.
---------------------------------------------------
|  F1-F2 : F4-F7 %  | SPOT-F1 |  F1-F2  |  F4-F7  |
---------------------------------------------------
|  C:9.02 C :9.10   | -1.856  | -1.429  | -1.674  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|. DATUM  .|  SPOT   |   F1    |   F2    |   F4    |   F7    |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2023-07-20|  13.99  | 15.846  | 17.275  | 18.402  | 20.076  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2023-07-19|  13.76  | 13.020  | 15.905  | 17.964  | 19.696  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2023-07-18|  13.30  | 13.300  | 15.537  | 17.689  | 19.450  |
--------------------------------------------------------------

VXX QUOTES

VXX Quote summary of last 3 days
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    . DATUM  .     |       OPEN        |       HIGH        |        LOW        |       CLOSE       |CANDLE SIZE VS PREV|  UP-DW CLO->CLO   |  UP-DW OPE->CLO   |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-21     |       23.70       |       23.86       |       23.26       |       23.70       |  2.58% : -0.55%   |        -1         |        -1         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-20     |       24.15       |       24.42       |       23.68       |       23.99       |  3.13% : -0.88%   |         2         |         1         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-19     |       23.29       |       24.16       |       23.23       |       23.90       |  4.00% : 1.82%    |         1         |        -2         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STATISTIQUES

Legend

Tbl 1. Short Long Target Reached

Show how many times target is reached in a row based on last day, and view how much occurances there is if serie continues.
-----------------------------------------
|   SHORTYESDAYS    |    LONGNODAYS     |
-----------------------------------------
|         2         |         1         |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    POPULATION     |  SHORTYESDAYS >   |   LONGNODAYS >    |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|      # 3631       |  # 1268 : 34.92%  |  # 512 : 14.10%   |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|  SHORTYESDAYS= 2  |  SHORTYESDAYS= 3  |      Percent      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|        512        |        362        |      70.7031      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|   LONGNODAYS= 1   |   LONGNODAYS= 2   |      Percent      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|        754        |        293        |      38.8594      |
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 2. Candle Size Next Day Indicator

Compares the last day candlesize within a range and retrieves the next day occurences, to see how many times the strategies have reach their target the next day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| SIZE : L-U RANGE  |    POPULATION     |    LONGYESDAYS    |   SHORTYESDAYS    |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   2.58% : 2 : 4   |       1529        |   894 : 58.47%    |   1010 : 66.06%   |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 3. Grow-Shrink Days next day indicator

How many days in a row the candlesize is growing,shrinking, viewed alongside how many times in a row our targets where hit.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            DATUM            |       GROW-SHRINKDAYS       |      SHORT Y : N DAYS       |       LONG Y : N DAYS       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2023-07-21          |         0    :    2         |         2    :    0         |        0    :     1         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2023-07-20          |         0    :    1         |         1    :    0         |        2    :     0         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2023-07-19          |         1    :    0         |         0    :    1         |        1    :     0         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  POPULATION SHRINKDAYS = 2  |        SHORTYESDAYS         |         LONGYESDAYS         |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|             482             |             327             |             276             |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  POP. SHRINKDAYS NEXT DAY   |        SHORTYESDAYS         |         LONGYESDAYS         |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|             481             |             316             |             306             |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 4. Daily Candle Size

------------------------------------------------------------------
|   MONTH    |AVG DAY SIZE|    YEAR    |AVG DAY SIZE| AVG 30 DAY |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|  January   |    3.88    |    2009    |   4.15 %   |   3.29 %   |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|  February  |    4.64    |    2010    |   4.71 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|   March    |    7.30    |    2011    |   5.02 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|   April    |    3.61    |    2012    |   5.00 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|    May     |    4.42    |    2013    |   3.86 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|    June    |    3.33    |    2014    |   4.05 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|    July    |    3.47    |    2015    |   5.25 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2016    |   4.72 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2017    |   3.35 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2018    |   5.62 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2019    |   4.06 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2020    |   6.29 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2021    |   5.30 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2022    |   5.54 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2023    |   4.37 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |   GLOBAL   |   4.77 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 5. Population Frequency Table

Shows how many times in a row a strategie reached target,how many times this occured. So you could detect outlier moves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      #       |  SHORT YES   |   LONG YES   | SHORT NODAYS | LONG NODAYS  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      1       | 755 - 29.78% | 754 - 31.88% | 755 - 68.89% | 754 - 59.56% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      2       | 512 - 20.20% | 486 - 20.55% | 213 - 19.43% | 293 - 23.14% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      3       | 362 - 14.28% | 327 - 13.83% |  81 - 7.39%  | 121 - 9.56%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      4       | 272 - 10.73% | 220 - 9.30%  |  29 - 2.65%  |  56 - 4.42%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      5       | 178 - 7.02%  | 152 - 6.43%  |  11 - 1.00%  |  24 - 1.90%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      6       | 123 - 4.85%  | 107 - 4.52%  |  6 - 0.55%   |  14 - 1.11%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      7       |  91 - 3.59%  |  70 - 2.96%  |  1 - 0.09%   |  3 - 0.24%   |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      8       |  65 - 2.56%  |  51 - 2.16%  |      -       |  1 - 0.08%   |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      9       |  51 - 2.01%  |  37 - 1.56%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      10      |  37 - 1.46%  |  30 - 1.27%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      11      |  27 - 1.07%  |  23 - 0.97%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      12      |  20 - 0.79%  |  20 - 0.85%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      13      |  13 - 0.51%  |  17 - 0.72%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      14      |  7 - 0.28%   |  16 - 0.68%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      15      |  7 - 0.28%   |  13 - 0.55%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      16      |  5 - 0.20%   |  10 - 0.42%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      17      |  3 - 0.12%   |  7 - 0.30%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      18      |  2 - 0.08%   |  6 - 0.25%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      19      |  1 - 0.04%   |  5 - 0.21%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      20      |  1 - 0.04%   |  3 - 0.13%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      21      |  1 - 0.04%   |  3 - 0.13%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      22      |  1 - 0.04%   |  1 - 0.04%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      23      |  1 - 0.04%   |  1 - 0.04%   |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   MAX. SY    |   MAX. SN    |   MAX. LY    |   MAX. LN    |    MAX HH    |    MAX LL    |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      23      |      7       |      29      |      8       |      9       |     -12      |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   TOT. SY    |   TOT. SN    |   TOT. LY    |   TOT. LN    |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|2535 : 69.82% |1096 : 30.18% |2365 : 65.13% |1266 : 34.87% |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 6. UP AND DOWN CLOSE VS CLOSE FREQ. TABLE

Shows hom many times in a row the close price is lower(negative numbers) or higher (positive numbers) than the previous day close price.
----------------------------------------------
|     U-D      |    FREQ.     |      %       |
----------------------------------------------
|     -12      |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -11      |      3       |     0.08     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -10      |      3       |     0.08     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -9      |      8       |     0.22     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -8      |      17      |     0.47     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -7      |      34      |     0.94     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -6      |      62      |     1.71     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -5      |     119      |     3.28     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -4      |     187      |     5.15     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -3      |     316      |     8.70     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -2      |     517      |    14.24     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -1      |     863      |    23.77     |
----------------------------------------------
|      0       |      35      |     0.96     |
----------------------------------------------
|      1       |     857      |    23.60     |
----------------------------------------------
|      2       |     358      |     9.86     |
----------------------------------------------
|      3       |     149      |     4.10     |
----------------------------------------------
|      4       |      54      |     1.49     |
----------------------------------------------
|      5       |      29      |     0.80     |
----------------------------------------------
|      6       |      13      |     0.36     |
----------------------------------------------
|      7       |      3       |     0.08     |
----------------------------------------------
|      8       |      2       |     0.06     |
----------------------------------------------
|      9       |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------

Tbl 8. UP AND DOWN ON OPEN VS CLOSE FREQ. TABLE

Shows hom many times in a row the open price is lower(negative numbers) or higher (positive numbers) than the previous days close price.
----------------------------------------------
|     U-D      |    FREQ.     |      %       |
----------------------------------------------
|     -13      |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -12      |      3       |     0.08     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -11      |      3       |     0.08     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -10      |      6       |     0.17     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -9      |      8       |     0.22     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -8      |      14      |     0.39     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -7      |      22      |     0.61     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -6      |      42      |     1.16     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -5      |      79      |     2.18     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -4      |     145      |     3.99     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -3      |     259      |     7.13     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -2      |     498      |    13.72     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -1      |     937      |    25.81     |
----------------------------------------------
|      0       |     634      |    17.46     |
----------------------------------------------
|      1       |     722      |    19.88     |
----------------------------------------------
|      2       |     194      |     5.34     |
----------------------------------------------
|      3       |      48      |     1.32     |
----------------------------------------------
|      4       |      11      |     0.30     |
----------------------------------------------
|      5       |      4       |     0.11     |
----------------------------------------------
|      6       |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------

Tbl 9. Lower Opening Percentage Next Day when contango

Shows percentage of chance if the next day will open lower and we are in contango for F1-F2
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    POPULATION     |     LOWEROPEN     |    PERCENTAGE     |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|       3050        |       1735        |       57.00       |
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 10. Vix 20 D Low Close Point.

Shows the lowest close quote of the last 20 days of VIX
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|       DATE        |       OPEN        |       CLOSE       |        LOW        |       HIGH        |       MIN20       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-21     |       13.87       |       13.60       |       13.37       |       13.89       |       13.30       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-20     |       13.96       |       13.99       |       13.58       |       14.23       |       13.30       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-19     |       13.32       |       13.76       |       13.12       |       13.84       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-18     |       13.61       |       13.30       |       13.29       |       13.67       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-17     |       13.78       |       13.48       |       13.43       |       14.00       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-14     |       13.72       |       13.34       |       13.22       |       13.76       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-13     |       13.44       |       13.61       |       13.12       |       13.61       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-12     |       14.82       |       13.54       |       13.51       |       14.82       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-11     |       15.02       |       14.84       |       14.63       |       15.25       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-10     |       16.08       |       15.07       |       15.04       |       16.21       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-07     |       15.97       |       14.83       |       14.33       |       16.06       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-06     |       14.85       |       15.44       |       14.79       |       17.08       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-05     |       14.19       |       14.18       |       14.05       |       14.74       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-04     |       13.85       |       13.57       |       13.47       |       13.85       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-07-03     |       13.85       |       13.57       |       13.47       |       13.85       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-06-30     |       13.51       |       13.59       |       12.96       |       13.59       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-06-29     |       13.64       |       13.54       |       13.41       |       13.85       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-06-28     |       13.90       |       13.43       |       13.36       |       13.96       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-06-27     |       14.11       |       13.74       |       13.59       |       14.34       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-06-26     |       14.43       |       14.25       |       13.78       |       14.71       |       12.91       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        
                                                        
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             Since 2018-11-18                           
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