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2012-09-25 10:16:47
Car use is peaking in the rich world. Governments should take advantage of that
Sep 22nd 2012 | from the print edition
IN 1888 Bertha Benz, wife of the carmaker Karl, drove 66 miles from one German
city to another to prove to the world that the horseless carriage was suited
to everyday use. Mrs Benz succeeded beyond her wildest dreams.
Modern life is unimaginable without the car. The automobile has powered the
growth of cities and steered their sprawl. Its manufacture has created millions
of jobs and eased the development of many millions more. In rich countries, 70%
of journeys are now by car. More than a billion cars now roll on the world s
roads.
Measured globally, car use will go on rising, for as people in emerging markets
get rich, they want the mobility and status that car-ownership offers. But in
the rich world the decades-long link between rising incomes and car use has
been severed (see article), and miles driven per person have been falling. That
is partly because of recession and high oil prices, but the trend pre-dates
2007. Other, longer-term, factors are at work. One is generational:
car-ownership is reaching saturation. The current cohort of retirees is the
first for whom driving was commonplace, so new generations of vehicle-owners
will replace rather than add to existing ones. Young people, meanwhile, are
falling out of love with cars. All over the rich world they are getting their
licences later, and they use other forms of transport more than the young did a
generation ago.
That, like so much else, may be partly a consequence of the internet. Never
before has not travelling been so much fun. People who want to socialise can do
so virtually, instead of driving round to each other s houses. Shopping can be
done online, instead of buzzing off to the supermarket or the mall: one van
delivery can do the work of many individual shoppers in their cars. People who
don t want to go into the office find it increasingly easy to do their work
from home.
But government policy also makes a difference. Congested roads, smog and fears
about global warming have led many cities to try to change the way people move
around. Tokyo has shown that mass-transit systems need not be a poor or dirty
option. Portland, which grew with the car, has since the 1980s developed its
light rail. London has devoted more space exclusively to buses and cycles; cars
pay to enter the centre. Singapore has congestion-pricing too. For the past 30
years Copenhagen has cut the number of parking bays by 3% a year. By contrast,
in places where petrol is undertaxed so the motorists are shielded from the
costs of the pollution (America) or where urban design has included public
transport as an afterthought (Los Angeles), policy has supported the car.
Policy drives change
So even though it will be hard to detect in many parts of American suburbia,
car use may well have peaked in the rich world overall. Is that a good thing?
Not entirely: governments will lose out on revenues from fuel and car taxes,
for instance. But in many other ways it should be a boon. Falling car use
should reduce oil-importers dependence on volatile foreign governments. It
should cut pollution. Cities could become pleasanter places to live in. And,
since obesity rates track car use, more people will take up walking and
cycling, and fitter people are less depressed and more productive (or so they
tell us).
A decline in miles driven per person in the developed world does not spell doom
for carmakers. There is plenty of demand for them in the developing world. They
may overcome resistance in the rich world by coming up with radically cheaper
or greener cars or new vehicles entirely (driverless cars, for instance). But
in the short term the falling underlying demand makes the industry s excess
capacity in Europe all the more wasteful; politicians should let them close
factories.
Governments in emerging markets, where hundreds of cities are taking shape,
should learn from mistakes and successes elsewhere. Policies that encourage
people to drive into urban centres by, for instance, requiring businesses to
offer parking spaces for employees and customers condemn metropolitan areas to
heavy car use and congestion. Planning that provides mass transit systems and
good pedestrian and cycle ways can make them more efficient. That is happening
in some places. China is building rail networks in more than 80 cities.
Eighteen Indian cities are developing metro systems. Yet many cities continue
to drive themselves round the same bend as in the developed world. Bangkok,
Dhaka and Jakarta are building more freeways in response to already clogged
ones.
The car will bring freedom and fun to millions in emerging markets, just as it
has done in the rich world. But if technology and policy are enabling people to
find cheaper and cleaner ways to work and enjoy themselves, that is all to the
good.
from the print edition | Leaders