💾 Archived View for gmi.noulin.net › mobileNews › 3726.gmi captured on 2023-06-16 at 19:17:54. Gemini links have been rewritten to link to archived content
⬅️ Previous capture (2023-01-29)
-=-=-=-=-=-=-
2012-01-11 13:36:57
The German economy is likely to have shrunk by 0.25% in the final quarter of
2011, an official from the Federal Statistics Office has said.
For the whole of 2011, the economy grew by 3%, official figures from the
Statistics Office showed, driven by strong growth in the first half.
It said the impetus for growth was mainly provided by domestic demand.
However, the annual growth rate was weaker than the post-unification record of
3.7% seen a year earlier.
The annual figure was based on an estimate for the fourth quarter, with the
official data for the last three months due to be published on 15 February.
But Norbert Raeth from the Statistics Office told a news conference that the
economy was likely to have shrunk by "around a quarter of a percentage point"
in the final quarter.
Although the 3% expansion in 2011 marked a slowdown in growth from 2010, it is
still a strong figure compared with other economies.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects
growth in 2011 of 1.7% in the US, 0.9% in the UK, 1.6% in France and 0.7% in
Spain and Italy.
Rising car sales
"The economic recovery took place primarily in the first half of the year,"
Roderich Egeler, the head of the Statistics Office, told a news conference.
Analysis
image of Stephen Evans Stephen Evans BBC News, Berlin
The old saying "it's an ill wind that blows nobody any good" is doubly true for
Germany.
Firstly, it's finding it very easy to raise money. Earlier in the week, the
Bundesbank auctioned 3.9bn euros worth of debt - in plain English: the
government borrowed money and got lenders to bid for the lowest rate of
interest they would accept for their loan.
Amazingly, the winning bids were at a negative rate of interest. In other
words, institutions were prepared to pay the German government money in order
to lend to it!
That's because, compared with the rest of Europe, investors see Germany as a
solid institution in which to park their money. And they think that if the euro
collapses, the German economy will still be standing.
Secondly, because of the problems in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, the
value of the euro against the dollar has fallen - by about 10% in the second
half of last year. That makes German exports cheaper compared to US ones.
Nobody is saying it loudly but German exporters have had a bit of a fillip from
the travails elsewhere.
Private consumption had been strong in 2011, he said, growing by 1.5%, up from
0.6% in 2010.
He added that demand for cars had been particularly strong, with German car
sales rising by 6.1% in December.
Exports, the main driver of the German economy, rose by 8.2%, although this
marked a slowdown from the 13.7% growth seen last year.
Andreas Rees, chief German economist at Unicredit, said he did not think
Germany would fall into recession.
"We think growth of about 1% is possible for this year. The Ifo [business
confidence] index has risen for the last two months. That indicates that the
low point in terms of company sentiment might already be over," he said.
"The labour market is also going very well. That gives tailwind to private
consumption, at least in the first half.
"There is also hope from the US, where the economy is going better again. That
will help us. It is a positive sign for exports, which are also profiting from
the weak euro. The global economy is weakening, but we will not see a
collapse."
But Joerg Zeuner, chief economist at VP Bank, was more cautious and said that
Germany could not isolate itself from the tensions within the eurozone.
"Another quarter of contraction and thereby a technical recession are
distinctly possible," he said.
"However if there is no further escalation in the eurozone debt crisis, the
German economy should still grow in 2012, albeit at a moderate 0.5%," he added.