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2011-11-04 06:24:32
4 November 2011 Last updated at 09:44 GMT
Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a crucial confidence vote in
parliament on Friday with the outcome on a knife-edge.
Mr Papandreou shocked EU partners and sent markets into turmoil after calling
for a referendum on a hard-fought EU deal to bail out debt-ridden Greece.
While the prospect of a referendum has receded, even if the PM wins his future
is unclear, amid new calls to resign.
The developments have overshadowed a key G20 meeting in Cannes.
It continues for a second day on Friday.
Motives questioned
The figures in the Greek parliament reveal Mr Papandreou's vulnerability.
His governing Socialist party (Pasok) holds a tiny majority - 152 out of 300
seats.
A handful of his MPs had indicated they would refuse to back him in the
confidence vote, which is expected late on Friday, possibly around 22:00 GMT.
Analysis
Mark Lowen BBC News, Athens
After fighting calls for his resignation, George Papandreou now faces his next
big test: a confidence vote in parliament this evening. It could be tight -
very tight. He has a parliamentary majority of just two.
A handful of his MPs had threatened to vote against him if he pursued a
referendum on last week's debt deal for Greece. But Elena Panaritis - one of
the MPs planning to rebel - told me she would now support the prime minister
because, in her view, the referendum will not take place.
If Mr Papandreou's other dissident MPs follow suit, he could scrape through.
Many, though, are speculating that he would still seek to form a national unity
government afterwards, possibly to make a dignified exit. But with the
opposition leader calling for Mr Papandreou's resignation, any new coalition
would presumably need to have another leader at the helm.
However, the BBC's Mark Lowen in Athens says there are suggestions some
potential rebel MPs will now support Mr Papandreou since the likelihood of a
referendum has eased.
There had been serious divisions in Pasok on the referendum, with Finance
Minister Evangelos Venizelos insisting it should not be held.
Mr Papandreou then said the referendum was never an end in itself, and there
were two other choices - an election, which he said would bankrupt the country,
or a consensus in parliament.
He called for talks with the opposition on a coalition government.
The strategy of the main opposition New Democracy is unclear.
Its leader Antonis Samaras on Thursday led his MPs in a dramatic walkout of
parliament and called for snap elections.
Mr Samaras questioned the motives behind Mr Papandreou's actions.
"I am wondering; Mr Papandreou almost destroyed Greece and Europe, the euro,
the international stock markets, his own party in order to ensure what? So that
he could blackmail me and the Greek public? Or to ensure what I had already
said several days ago; that I accept the bailout agreement as unavoidable?"
New Democracy MP Simos Kedikoglou told the BBC's World Today programme that
while it backed adopting the bailout, that did not mean it supported Mr
Papandreou remaining prime minister.
So even if Mr Papandreou survives, speculation will mount about his position.
Government sources told Reuters news agency that Mr Papandreou had agreed at a
cabinet meeting on Thursday to stand down once he had negotiated a coalition
with the opposition.
One source said: "He was told that he must leave calmly in order to save his
party. He agreed to step down. It was very civilised, with no acrimony."
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told the BBC's Today
programme he expected a government of national unity to be formed and that the
economic problems "will be solved".
He said that it was in Greece's interest to stay in the euro.
"We would like them to stay... in the end it depends on them," he said.
Opinion poll
The G20 will continue its meeting in Cannes on Friday.
Greek parliament graphic
The leaders are expected to discuss ways to increase the firepower of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
At the end of the first day, the French host, President Nicolas Sarkozy, said
France and Germany had helped Greek politicians focus on what was at stake.
Mr Papandreou had been summoned for urgent talks at the G20 on Wednesday, where
he was told that any referendum would turn on the question of whether Greece
wanted to stay in the eurozone.
They also put on hold the next tranche of Greece's existing bailout.
The EU bailout deal, agreed last month, would give the heavily indebted Greek
government 130bn euros ( 111bn; $178bn) and it imposes a 50% write-off on
private holders of Greek debts, in return for deeply unpopular austerity
measures.
Analysts say eurozone leaders must solve the Greek problem swiftly or risk the
crisis spreading to other vulnerable economies, particularly Italy.
Although the Greek public has strongly resisted the severe austerity measures a
recent opinion poll in a newspaper showed 70% wanted to remain within the
eurozone.