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Re:Move to quantified data

2011-01-07 16:08:42

I've been an avid follower of /. for some time now. I've gained a lot of

insight from reader responses, which are generally well thought-out, mature,

and reasonable. On the topic of market microstructure, however, I feel /. falls

woefully short. I cringe when I read comments that sound like something from

Zero Hedge.

I work in HFT. I make markets. Obviously, there is an incentive for me to talk

about all the good things HFT brings to the world. However, I also believe that

we serve a function in the market. Perhaps not vital, but still a service

nonetheless.

What do market makers add to the market? They're willing to stand on the other

side of your trade. They serve a vital function to the market and we can trace

them back to the specialist days on the floor. Let's all agree to start from

there.

What do HFTs add to the market? Now this is where you have a large divide in

opinion, and rightly so. Some HFT firms will engage in predatory behavior that

is unfortunate, including quote stuffing and price manipulation. I am not

writing to absolve all the bad things that many HFT firms do. However, in my

view, ideally, HFT market makers add these factors: immediacy and continuity.

As an investor, you can go up to a trading terminal at any time in the day and

someone (most likely an HFT firm) will be there to take the other side. That is

immediacy. You also have access to price discovery that is happening every

fraction of a second. That is continuity. These are ideal situations, and not

every HFT adds these values. Firms that only remove liquidity are often not

providing immediacy. Firms that manipulate prices are usually not providing

continuity.

If you think, "HFT's will run at the sign of chaos!" I agree with you. The

better, smarter, and faster firms will continue to stay in the market, but only

up to a certain point. Why should anyone stand in the way when a big

institution sells 75,000 ES contracts? We trade and provide liquidity so long

as it's profitable. If you have a problem with that, you have a problem with

capitalism. How do you possibly incentivize participants to absorb tail-end

risk?

If you think, "But investors don't care about 30 microseconds!" I agree with

you. The short reaction times are there so that we can manage risk. It

indirectly adds value to the investor because it allows us to manage risk

better, which allows us to provide really tight markets. Think about it. We're

standing there for anyone in the world to trade against all the time. Adverse

selection is the name of the game. Back in the specialist days, spreads were

sometimes in dollars. Now they are in pennies, and in many liquid stocks,

exactly a penny. I assure you -- if we ever move to a system that taxes each

trade or throttles latencies, you will see spreads widen out immensely because

it's harder to manage risk. If you impose a limit on the minimum life of a

quote, you will see spreads widen because there's risk in standing in the

middle of the highway for too long.

If you think, "But company values don't change every 30 microseconds!" I agree

with you again. It's the possibility that they could change that necessitates

high reaction speeds. Company valuations are stable -- on average. But once in

a while, some information is leaked that damages the company's reputation or

some big institution decides to buy a ton, and you're left with a huge position

that's going against you. Should we stand there and absorb that flow even when

it's not profitable?

The last point is probably the biggest factor in a gating system where trades

only take effect every N seconds. You can only update your position every N

seconds, so as a market maker, you're essentially putting out a lot more risk.

Some firms will be smart about risk management and be able to provide tighter

spreads and make money for themselves. Some firms will not and they will go out

of business. Almost certainly, firms would widen spreads to protect themselves

from adverse selection.

The gating system also will not eliminate the arms race. Let's suppose we have

an auction system that matches buyers and sellers every 2 minutes. Who gets

matched first? If the system is based on price-time priority, then there is an

incentive to be at the front of the line. Not only do you want to be at the

front, but you also want to be on the right line. That sets up demand for

faster computers and faster connections. If the system is pro-rata, which

matches large orders first, it raises the barrier to entry for smaller

companies with less capital. There was a comment here about randomized

matching. It would still not completely remove the arms race. You still want to

be able to cancel orders in case bad things happen and whoever cancels as close

to the deadline can process the most information.

Maybe there is a reasonable solution, but please do not simply throw out ideas

like "let's throttle speeds" and "let's tax traders" and think that's all there

is to it. Market makers would love to provide liquidity and get paid for it. We

don't widen spreads or decrease liquidity out of spite -- we get out if we're

losing lots of money.