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Will Sudan's Nuba Mountains be left high and dry?

2009-11-24 05:40:09

By Peter Martell

BBC News, Nuba Mountains, Sudan

"Welcome to the liberated areas," the official said proudly, greeting those

climbing out the small aeroplane that had just bounced down on the sandy

airstrip in central Sudan.

If one still remained unsure as to who controls the green hills at the

geographical heart of Africa's largest nation, the arrival form spells it out.

The crest of the ex-rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A)

heads the form.

"Welcome to the Nuba Mountains," the official added with a smile.

The scattered settlements of green farms and thatch huts were a key base for

the SPLA guerrillas in their fight against the Arab-dominated and Muslim north

- a two-decades long conflict fought over religion, resources and ethnicity.

Wary of the future

Some two million people died and four million fled their homes, before a peace

deal was signed in 2005.

The SPLM won regional autonomy for the largely Christian and black African

south, with a referendum on its potential full independence slated for January

2011.

But that leaves out the Nuba.

The former southern rebel enclave lies surrounded by the north - and that makes

many wary of the future.

"We are not part of the referendum that the south will hold," said Kamal

al-Nur, a former rebel colonel, and now commissioner of the SPLM-controlled

Heiban county.

"Instead, the Nuba Mountains will hold popular consultations to decide our

future."

The 'next Darfur'?

However, analysts warn the "popular consultations" - which will also be held in

the similarly contested Blue Nile state - are poorly defined and offer little

realistic chance of settlement for the regions.

They include no set steps for either autonomy or to join the south - something

many ordinary people assume will take place.

The volatile region is already awash with automatic weapons, and fears are

growing the region requires little to tip back into conflict.

"If the south does achieve independence, it will leave these two states in a

very difficult position indeed, and it could easily trigger fresh violence,"

warned John Ashworth, writing in a September report for the advocacy group Pax

Christi.

It is a concern shared by many of the Nuba peoples - some 50 mainly black

African ethnic groups - who share much in common with those in the south.

"We worry about the future, because we feel we could stand alone," said former

rebel soldier Abdulaziz Kuwa, who grows groundnuts and sorghum on small

hillside farm.

"I support the SPLM, but I fear the north will not let our farmland go without

a fight."

The mountains, stretching for some 48,000 square kilometres (19,000 square

miles), rise out of the wider South Kordofan state - a region with rich oil

reserves.

Few believe the government in Khartoum would easily surrender such wealth to

their former civil war enemies in the south.

A report last year from the International Crisis Group dubbed South Kordofan

the "next Darfur", because of the potential for violence between the rival

different Arab and African groups.

All together

Memories of the war remain bitter, with old enmities exacerbated by pressure on

grazing land.

Nevertheless, many people here appear loyal to the rebellion's original aim:

equality within a united Sudan.

"We have three religions in the Nuba - Islam, Christianity and traditional

beliefs - and we all live together without problem," said Jabir Hamid, drinking

home-made sorghum beer in the market.

"The north would make us have [Islamic] Sharia law, and we would not allow that

- that is what we fought to end."

The Nuba even take Wednesday as their weekend: a day chosen so as not to favour

the holy day of any religion.

Critical time

But the south appears determined on secession: southern president Salva Kiir

said in October that voting for unity would make southerners "second class"

citizens.

With Sudan's first presidential, legislative and parliamentary elections for 24

years due in April, tensions are running high between north and south.

Cynics predict electoral failure, but the Nuba say the ballot could be one of

the last chances to decide their future in peace.

"If we can't elect the people who represent our views in these elections, then

our voice will not be heard in the popular consultations," said Younan Bashir

Kuku, an SPLM member at a training course in preparation for the elections.

It is a critical time for all Sudan.

"The Nuba people fear the breakaway of the south because they will be left as

an isolated minority in the north - and will also be on the frontline of any

future north-south conflict," said Peter Moszynski, a Sudan analyst who began

working in the Nuba in 1981.

"Unless they are offered some form of special status in northern Sudan many

could return to the armed struggle, as they insist that they will fight for

their right to be Nuba, and not be further assimilated into an Arab Sudanese

state," he added.

Reports that civil war era militias are regrouping are confirmed by the

commissioner.

"The militias have many guns and they are becoming active, " said Mr al-Nur.

"Security is our main concern, especially with the elections coming."

The future of the region may not be clear but one thing seems certain - for the

Nuba Mountains, there are tough times ahead.