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A summit of limited expectations

2009-07-06 06:03:56

By Jonathan Marcus

BBC diplomatic correspondent

Russia will provide the first major test of President Barack Obama's diplomatic

skills.

Under the previous Bush administration, relations between Washington and Moscow

were almost as bad as during the Cold War. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey

Lavrov has spoken of the need "to get rid of the toxic assets" of the past.

So there is ample opportunity for improvement. Both sides have stressed the

need to "press the reset button" in relations between their two countries.

But just what does this mean? In a famous diplomatic foot-note, amid a certain

amount of embarrassment, the US state department got its Russian translation of

the term "reset" muddled. But in reality, resetting this relationship does mean

very different things for the two sides.

For President Barack Obama, it means escaping the shadow of the Cold War,

turning a page, and crafting a new relationship based on common global

interests.

At face value, the Russians would accept that, but fundamentally they take a

rather different view. Their public statements are punctuated with phrases like

the need for "an equal and mutually respectful partnership".

In Russia there is still a deep well of bitterness and insecurity prompted by

the Soviet Union's collapse - a nostalgia for world-power status. Russia still

sees itself as America's equal and wants to be treated as such. Russia still

regards the US as a strategic competitor.

Arms control

In a briefing just ahead of this visit, the Obama administration's point-man on

Russia, Michael McFaul, summed up this attitude succinctly: "The United States

is considered an adversary... they think that our number-one objective in the

world is to make Russia weaker, to surround Russia, to do things that make us

stronger and Russia weaker."

The centrepiece of this summit will be arms control. The leaders will take

stock of efforts to craft a new treaty limiting strategic nuclear weapons to

replace the Start I agreement that expires in December.

They also hope to set out a much more expansive disarmament agenda for the

future. But this is not going to be easy. The new treaty must have extensive

verification provisions to enhance trust.

The discussion of arms control is as much about managing an adversarial

relationship as building a new one

It will seek to limit not just delivery vehicles like ballistic missiles, but

also warheads. Arsenals on both sides could shrink dramatically to some 15,000

warheads apiece. But time is short and the negotiations complex. It is still

far from clear the extent to which Russian opposition to US missile defence

plans could still throw a spanner in the works.

There is a paradox here. To craft a new relationship, Russia and the US are

starting with the central issue of the Cold War years, namely disarmament.

Indeed, as many analysts have argued, the discussion of arms control is as much

about managing an adversarial relationship as building a new one.

This illustrates the very different approaches of the two sides. Russia sees

arms control as the agenda through which it gains equivalence with Washington.

It is back at the top table sitting face-to-face with the Americans, talking

about one of the most dangerous issues confronting mankind.

The Americans, on the other hand, see arms control as the platform upon which

to build a new relationship.

A deal with Russia is also important for President Obama's wider

non-proliferation agenda. It is seen as vital that the big nuclear players cut

their arsenals if efforts to prevent the unravelling of the existing

non-proliferation regime are to succeed.

Regional issues like Afghanistan, Iran and European security will also figure

prominently at this summit.

The Americans are confident of obtaining Moscow's approval for flying troops

and lethal military cargo through Russian airspace to Afghanistan.

President Obama will also meet Russian journalists and civil society activists.

And there will be another "big speech" at Moscow's forward-looking New Economic

School.

But the shadow of the Cold War still falls across the relationship between

Washington and Moscow. Escaping this mindset of the past will not be easy.

President Obama has a difficult diplomatic task. He must engage the Russian

leadership while also seeking a new kind of engagement with the Russian people.

He must seek to press that metaphorical reset button, while also signalling

that he can be tough when needed.

The Americans are already signalling that there will be no formal reassurances

or trading with Russia on missile defence or Nato expansion.

The message seems clear. The US wants a fresh start, but if one is not

forthcoming, then so be it. Russia is by no means at the top of the Obama

administration's foreign policy agenda, although the Americans know that on a

variety of their pressing concerns - such as Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea and

global warming - Russian assistance could be vital.

This, then, should be a summit of limited expectations.

Russian commentator Masha Lipman of the Carnegie Moscow Centre shares the

scepticism of many: "I think the best we can hope for is that there is some

chemistry or some little glimpse of building trust for the future," she told

me.

"It may be the first tiny step on a long road ahead, I think this is the most

we can hope for."