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2009-02-10 12:30:22
The year 1989 reshaped the world. Its news stories - from Tiananmen Square to
the fall of the Berlin Wall - are now historical marker posts. BBC Diplomatic
Editor Brian Hanrahan watched many of the events at first hand, and will
retrace his steps this year to talk to those involved and consider the
long-term implications.
It was a baffling year - neither predictable nor inevitable. For those of us in
the thick of it, there was a constant struggle to make sense of what we were
seeing. Even those with the power to shape events were taken aback. The outcome
was not what they had bargained for.
It was a year in which power was transferred away from repressive communist
leaders who tolerated no questions or debate about their policies to mass
movements which swept away governments and rewrote the map of Europe.
Only China resisted the momentum of change by brutally suppressing
demonstrations.
And at times Europe nearly toppled over into mass bloodshed. One night in
October I saw East German troops armed and ready to fire on street
demonstrators. Only a loss of nerve in the East German politburo prevented a
horrendous massacre.
But at the beginning there was little to indicate that we were witnessing the
collapse of communism, and the end of the Cold War.
I have looked back through my notebooks and can find not a mention of the round
table talks in Poland which began in February and would eventually lead to
Eastern Europe's first non-communist government. Few thought it worth remarking
on.
The struggle between Poland's communists and the Solidarity movement had been
under way for a decade, and from London this looked like another cynical
manoeuvre intended to keep the Polish communists in power. That is certainly
what the communists intended.
On their own
In London our attention was focused on Afghanistan. The Red Army was abandoning
its ill-starred attempt to control the country and retreating. We - the
watching diplomats, journalists, and politicians - were trying to interpret
what this meant for future Soviet ambitions.
Was it a tactical retreat, or a permanent change of policy?
Fresh from three years living in Russia, I had my own theory. I had seen the
depths of the economic crisis on Moscow's streets - poor food, shoddy housing,
and roads that would disgrace the third world - and believed this was an empire
in decline.
I predicted it would crumble from the edges - a long-drawn-out process that
would take many years.
Only in October did the real truth become clearer. With the communists already
out of office in Poland, and East Germans fleeing in their tens of thousands
through Hungary's newly-opened borders, the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev,
visited East Berlin.
I discovered from West German intelligence that Mr Gorbachev had told the East
German leader, Erich Honecker, that the Soviet Army would not back him if he
used force against the demonstrators.
How they had access to such a sensitive conversation goodness knows, but the
implications were clear.
The Soviet satellites were now on their own. It was a total turnabout from the
decades in which Soviet tanks had repressed dissent in East Germany, Hungary
and Czechoslovakia.
This was partly because the Soviet Union could no longer afford to support
them, but more importantly because Mr Gorbachev believed it unnecessary.
Reformed communism, he thought, would be popular and Stalinist repression was
no longer needed at home or abroad.
He was wrong. But his rejection of violence, and moral courage in facing down a
hard-line Soviet establishment, ensured the year ended far more peacefully than
it might have done.
'Remember Tiananmen'
But how would his client governments respond?
Poland acquiesced and struck the best deal it could with Solidarity.
But East Germany was attracted by the example of China. The communist
government there had ruthlessly cut down demonstrators in Tiananmen Square
under the eyes of the watching world.
The East German authorities sent a message to New Forum, the group behind the
demonstrators.
It said, "Remember Tiananmen". One of my strongest memories of the year is
watching the face of Jens Reich, one of New Forum's founders, as he heard it.
Ashen faced, and aware of the enormity of the threat, he said immediately that
they would go on.
"We have got to get a dialogue going, so people can say something, before they
all disappear. I feel guilty that I have not spoken up sooner."
In the end his bravery, and the courage of millions more like him, faced down
communist governments right across Europe. But the dangers were very real and
the result in doubt right up until the last.
Every country fought its own battle. No wonder it was a difficult year to make
sense of.