💾 Archived View for gmi.noulin.net › mobileNews › 5551.gmi captured on 2023-01-29 at 17:45:08. Gemini links have been rewritten to link to archived content

-=-=-=-=-=-=-

American interest rates - Advantage: Doves

2015-08-20 06:22:14

Aug 20th 2015, 4:37 by H.C. | WASHINGTON, DC

THE combination of weaker-than-expected CPI inflation and some dovish comments

in the minutes of the Federal Reserve s July meeting have caused the dollar,

and yields on Treasury bonds, to fall. The traders are hopefully forecasting

that the chance of a September rate rise is receding. The case for tightening

monetary policy next month looks increasingly frail.

Consumer prices are only 0.2% higher than a year ago. Inflation continues to

languish close to zero due to cheap oil and the effect of a strengthening

dollar on import prices, both factors which the Fed regards as transitory.

However, if the world economy is slowing as others fear they can be expected to

persist. Weak demand overseas will weigh on both commodities and foreign

currencies.

In any case, there is no significant inflationary pressure, on today s reading

or looking at expectations. The Fed s staff project that inflation will remain

below its 2% target over 2016 and 2017, and market measures of inflation

expectations remain weak. A tightening in September would cause these

expectations to sag further, because a rate rise is currently viewed as a

possibility, not a certainty.

The main argument of the hawks is that spare capacity in the labour market is

disappearing as unemployment falls. Indeed, expectations of an interest rate

rise surged following satisfactory job numbers in July. But tightening in the

labour market is immaterial to inflation unless it puts upward pressure on

nominal wages. In the past three months, pay has grown at an annualised rate of

1.9% (compared with 3.1% in fizzier Britain). Either there is hidden slack in

the labour market at 63%, the participation rate remains uninspiring or

expectations of low inflation are keeping a lid on pay deals. (Americans are

enjoying real wage growth thanks to cheap oil and imports, but it is the

nominal figure that matters for monetary policy).

The remaining arguments for rate rises are weak. A couple of Fed participants

thought a delay would cause an undesirable increase in inflation . With both

inflation and expectations of inflation subdued, it is hard to see how a rise

in either could be undesirable. Some committee members think there is a

signalling advantage to raising rates: doing so would show the committee views

the economic recovery as being robust. But the strongest signal sent by a rate

rise in the face of subdued inflation expectations would be that the Fed is

unpeturbed by the idea of missing its 2% inflation target on the downside. It

is right that policymakers get ahead of the inflation numbers. But they should

at least look for signs of wage growth or rising inflation forecasts before

tightening. In any case the effect of a small rise in rates would be limited.

But the fact is that American monetary policy does not yet look too loose.