💾 Archived View for gmi.noulin.net › mobileNews › 3253.gmi captured on 2023-01-29 at 19:22:53. Gemini links have been rewritten to link to archived content
⬅️ Previous capture (2023-01-29)
-=-=-=-=-=-=-
2011-07-19 12:29:39
Breakout trading is used by active investors to take a position within a
trend's early stages. Generally speaking, this strategy can be the starting
point for major price moves, expansions in volatility and, when managed
properly, can offer limited downside risk. Throughout this article, we'll walk
you through the anatomy of this trade from start to finish and offer a few
ideas to better manage this trading style.
What Is a Breakout?
A breakout is a stock price that moves outside a defined support or resistance
level with increased volume. A breakout trader enters a long position after the
stock price breaks above resistance or enters a short position after the stock
breaks below support. Once the stock trades beyond the price barrier,
volatility tends to increase and prices usually trend in the breakout's
direction. The reason breakouts are such an important trading strategy is
because these setups are the starting point for future volatility increases and
large price swings. In many circumstances, breakouts are the starting point for
major price trends. (To learn more, read Spotting Breakouts As Easy As ACD.)
Breakouts occur in all types of market environments. Typically, the most
explosive price movements are a result of channel breakouts and price pattern
breakouts such as triangles, flags or head and shoulders patterns (see Figure
1). As volatility contracts during these time frames, it will typically expand
after prices move beyond the identified ranges.
Figure 1: A triangle breakout
Source: Prophet.net
Regardless of the time frame, breakout trading is a great strategy. Whether you
use intraday, daily or weekly charts, the concepts are universal. You can apply
this strategy to day trading, swing trading or any style of trading.
Finding a Good Candidate
When trading breakouts, it is important to consider the underlying stock's
support and resistance levels. The more times a stock price has touched these
areas, the more valid these levels are and the more important they become. At
the same time, the longer these support and resistance levels have been in
play, the better the outcome when the stock price finally breaks out (see
Figure 2).
Figure 2: The trading range shows multiple reactions to support over time.
Source: Prophet.net
As prices consolidate, various price patterns will occur on the price chart.
Formations such as channels, triangles and flags are valuable vehicles when
looking for stocks to trade. Aside from patterns, consistency and the length of
time that a stock price has adhered to its support or resistance levels are
important factors to consider when finding a good candidate to trade. (For more
insight, check out Analyzing Chart Patterns.)
Entry Points
After finding a good instrument to trade, it is time to plan the trade. The
easiest consideration is the entry point. Entry points are fairly black and
white when it comes to establishing positions upon a breakout. Once prices are
set to close above a resistance level, an investor will establish a bullish
position. When prices are set to close below a support level, an investor will
take on a bearish position.
To determine the difference between a breakout and a "fake out", it is a good
idea to wait for confirmation. For example, a fake out occurs when prices open
beyond a support or resistance level, but by the end of the day, wind up moving
back within a prior trading range. If an investor acts too quickly or without
confirmation, there is no guarantee that prices will continue into new
territory. For example, many investors look for above-average volume as
confirmation or wait towards the close of a trading period to determine whether
prices will sustain the levels they've broken out of. (For related reading, see
Trading Failed Breaks.)
Planning Exits
Predetermined exits are an essential ingredient to a successful trading
approach. When trading breakouts, there are three exits plans to arrange prior
to establishing a position.
Where to Exit With a Profit
When planning target prices, look at the stock's recent behavior to determine a
reasonable objective. When trading price patterns, it is easy to use the recent
price action to establish a price target. For example, if the range of a recent
channel or price pattern is six points, then that amount should be used as a
price target to forward project once the stock breaks out (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Measuring a price target
Source: Prophet.net
Another idea is to calculate recent price swings and average them out to get a
relative price target. If the stock has made an average price swing of four
points over the last few price swings, this would be a reasonable objective.
These are a few ideas on how to set price targets as the trade objective. This
should be your goal for the trade. After the goal is reached, an investor can
exit the position, exit a portion of the position to let the rest run or raise
a stop-loss order to lock in profits. (For more insight, see The Stop-Loss
Order - Make Sure You Use It.)
Where To Exit With a Loss
It is important to know when a trade has failed. Breakout trading offers this
insight in a fairly clear manner. After a breakout, old resistance levels
should act as new support and old support levels should act as new resistance.
This is an important consideration because it is an objective way to determine
when a trade has failed and an easy way to determine where to set your
stop-loss order. After a position has been taken, use the old support or
resistance level as a line in the sand to close out a losing trade. As an
example, study the PCZ chart in Figure 4.
Figure 4: A failed breakout
Source: Prophet.net
After a trade fails, it is important to exit the trade quickly. Never give a
loss too much room. If you are not careful, losses can accumulate.
Where To Set a Stop Order
When considering where to exit a position with a loss, use the prior support or
resistance level beyond which prices have broken. Placing a stop comfortably
within these parameters is a safe way to protect a position without giving the
trade too much downside risk. Setting a stop higher than this will likely
trigger an exit prematurely because it is common for prices to retest price
levels they've just broken out of.
Looking at the chart in Figure 4, you can see the initial consolidation of
prices, the breakout, the retest and then the price objective reached. The
process is fairly mechanical. When considering where to set a stop-loss order,
had it been set above the old resistance level, prices wouldn't have been able
to retest these levels and the investor would have been stopped out
prematurely. Setting the stop below this level allows prices to retest and
catch the trade quickly if it fails.
Summary
In summary, here are the steps to follow when trading breakouts.
Identify the Candidate
Find stocks that have built strong support or resistance levels and watch them.
Remember, the stronger the support or resistance, the better the outcome. Make
sure you understand this when you shop for stocks to watch.
Wait For the Breakout
Finding a good candidate does not mean a trade should be taken prematurely.
Wait patiently for the stock price to make its move. To be sure the breakout
will hold, on the day the stock price trades outside its support or resistance
level, wait until near the end of the trading day to make your move. Be
patient. (For more on this, see Patience Is A Trader's Virtue.)
Set a Reasonable Objective
If you are going to take a trade, set an expectation of where it is going. If
you don't, you won't know where to exit the trade. This can be done by
calculating an average move that the stock makes or measuring the distance
between support and resistance (especially when trading price patterns).
Allow the Stock to Retest
This is the most critical step. When a stock price breaks a resistance level,
old resistance becomes new support. When a stock breaks a support level, old
support becomes new resistance. In the majority of your trades, the stock will
test the level it has broken after the first couple of days. Prepare for it.
(For more on this phenomenon, read Support And Resistance Reversals.)
Know When Your Trade/Pattern Has Failed
When the stock attempts to retest a prior support or resistance level and it
breaks back through it, this is where a pattern or breakout has failed. It is
imperative you take the loss at this point. Don't gamble with your losses.
Exit Trades Toward the Market Close
You can't discern at the open whether prices will hold at a particular level.
This is why you might consider waiting until near the market close to exit a
losing trade. If a stock has remained outside a predetermined support or
resistance level toward the market close, it is time to close the position and
move on to the next.
Be Patient
This strategy requires plenty of patience. By following these steps, you will
reduce emotion and be more objective about a trade.
Exit at Your Target
If you are not exiting the trade with a loss, then you are in the trade. You
should remain in the trade until the stock price reaches its objective, or you
reach your time target without hitting your target price.
Conclusion
Breakout trading welcomes volatility. The volatility experienced after a
breakout is likely to generate emotion because prices are moving quickly and in
a volatile fashion. Using the steps covered in this article will help you
define a trading plan that, when executed properly, can offer great returns and
manageable risk.
by Jeff Kohler
Jeff Kohler has more than a decade of equity, options and futures trading
experience. He is the author of OptionAddict.net, a personal online trading
blog and winner of the 2007 Best Business Blog award. Jeff is the content
producer and instructor for Investools.com, where he creates financial content,
online presentations, podcasts, and online trading videos through various
financial websites, trading publications, and online media channels.