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VXX Analyse

Saturday, 28 January 2023

PROFIT TARGET: 1%

QUOTE SUMMARY

VIX-FUTURESCURVE

Show contango,backwardation of vix future curves and last 3 days closing prices.
---------------------------------------------------
|  F1-F2 : F4-F7 %  | SPOT-F1 |  F1-F2  |  F4-F7  |
---------------------------------------------------
|  C:5.92 C :5.24   | -0.808  | -1.144  | -1.129  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|. DATUM  .|  SPOT   |   F1    |   F2    |   F4    |   F7    |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2023-01-27|  18.51  | 19.318  | 20.462  | 21.551  | 22.680  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2023-01-26|  18.73  | 19.670  | 20.831  | 21.858  | 22.903  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2023-01-25|  19.08  | 19.958  | 21.053  | 22.101  | 23.172  |
--------------------------------------------------------------

VXX QUOTES

VXX Quote summary of last 3 days
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    . DATUM  .     |       OPEN        |       HIGH        |        LOW        |       CLOSE       |CANDLE SIZE VS PREV|  UP-DW CLO->CLO   |  UP-DW OPE->CLO   |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-27     |       11.50       |       11.50       |       11.06       |       11.30       |  3.98% : 1.08%    |        -2         |         0         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-26     |       11.49       |       11.73       |       11.40       |       11.45       |  2.89% : -3.85%   |        -1         |        -1         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-25     |       11.99       |       12.35       |       11.57       |       11.63       |  6.74% : 1.46%    |         1         |         1         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STATISTIQUES

Legend

Tbl 1. Short Long Target Reached

Show how many times target is reached in a row based on last day, and view how much occurances there is if serie continues.
-----------------------------------------
|   SHORTYESDAYS    |    LONGNODAYS     |
-----------------------------------------
|         1         |         1         |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    POPULATION     |  SHORTYESDAYS >   |   LONGNODAYS >    |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|      # 3516       |  # 1723 : 49.00%  |  # 494 : 14.05%   |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|  SHORTYESDAYS= 1  |  SHORTYESDAYS= 2  |      Percent      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|        728        |        495        |      67.9945      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|   LONGNODAYS= 1   |   LONGNODAYS= 2   |      Percent      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|        725        |        283        |      39.0345      |
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 2. Candle Size Next Day Indicator

Compares the last day candlesize within a range and retrieves the next day occurences, to see how many times the strategies have reach their target the next day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| SIZE : L-U RANGE  |    POPULATION     |    LONGYESDAYS    |   SHORTYESDAYS    |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   3.98% : 3 : 5   |       1313        |   804 : 61.23%    |   917 : 69.84%    |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 3. Grow-Shrink Days next day indicator

How many days in a row the candlesize is growing,shrinking, viewed alongside how many times in a row our targets where hit.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            DATUM            |       GROW-SHRINKDAYS       |      SHORT Y : N DAYS       |       LONG Y : N DAYS       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2023-01-27          |         1    :    0         |         1    :    0         |        0    :     1         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2023-01-26          |         0    :    1         |         0    :    1         |        2    :     0         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2023-01-25          |         2    :    0         |         5    :    0         |        1    :     0         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   POPULATION GROWDAYS = 1   |        SHORTYESDAYS         |         LONGYESDAYS         |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            1122             |             777             |             767             |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   POP. GROWDAYS NEXT DAY    |        SHORTYESDAYS         |         LONGYESDAYS         |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            1121             |             776             |             752             |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 4. Daily Candle Size

------------------------------------------------------------------
|   MONTH    |AVG DAY SIZE|    YEAR    |AVG DAY SIZE| AVG 30 DAY |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|  January   |    3.94    |    2009    |   4.15 %   |   4.08 %   |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2010    |   4.71 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2011    |   5.02 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2012    |   5.00 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2013    |   3.86 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2014    |   4.05 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2015    |   5.25 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2016    |   4.72 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2017    |   3.35 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2018    |   5.62 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2019    |   4.06 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2020    |   6.29 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2021    |   5.30 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2022    |   5.54 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2023    |   3.94 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |   GLOBAL   |   4.78 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 5. Population Frequency Table

Shows how many times in a row a strategie reached target,how many times this occured. So you could detect outlier moves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      #       |  SHORT YES   |   LONG YES   | SHORT NODAYS | LONG NODAYS  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      1       | 728 - 29.70% | 725 - 31.56% | 728 - 68.36% | 725 - 59.47% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      2       | 495 - 20.20% | 470 - 20.46% | 210 - 19.72% | 283 - 23.22% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      3       | 354 - 14.44% | 317 - 13.80% |  80 - 7.51%  | 115 - 9.43%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      4       | 265 - 10.81% | 215 - 9.36%  |  29 - 2.72%  |  54 - 4.43%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      5       | 173 - 7.06%  | 148 - 6.44%  |  11 - 1.03%  |  24 - 1.97%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      6       | 119 - 4.86%  | 105 - 4.57%  |  6 - 0.56%   |  14 - 1.15%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      7       |  88 - 3.59%  |  69 - 3.00%  |  1 - 0.09%   |  3 - 0.25%   |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      8       |  63 - 2.57%  |  50 - 2.18%  |      -       |  1 - 0.08%   |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      9       |  49 - 2.00%  |  37 - 1.61%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      10      |  36 - 1.47%  |  30 - 1.31%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      11      |  26 - 1.06%  |  23 - 1.00%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      12      |  19 - 0.78%  |  20 - 0.87%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      13      |  12 - 0.49%  |  17 - 0.74%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      14      |  6 - 0.24%   |  16 - 0.70%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      15      |  6 - 0.24%   |  13 - 0.57%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      16      |  4 - 0.16%   |  10 - 0.44%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      17      |  2 - 0.08%   |  7 - 0.30%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      18      |  1 - 0.04%   |  6 - 0.26%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      19      |  1 - 0.04%   |  5 - 0.22%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      20      |  1 - 0.04%   |  3 - 0.13%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      21      |  1 - 0.04%   |  3 - 0.13%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      22      |  1 - 0.04%   |  1 - 0.04%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      23      |  1 - 0.04%   |  1 - 0.04%   |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   MAX. SY    |   MAX. SN    |   MAX. LY    |   MAX. LN    |    MAX HH    |    MAX LL    |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      23      |      7       |      29      |      8       |      9       |     -12      |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   TOT. SY    |   TOT. SN    |   TOT. LY    |   TOT. LN    |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|2451 : 69.71% |1065 : 30.29% |2297 : 65.33% |1219 : 34.67% |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 6. UP AND DOWN CLOSE VS CLOSE FREQ. TABLE

Shows hom many times in a row the close price is lower(negative numbers) or higher (positive numbers) than the previous day close price.
----------------------------------------------
|     U-D      |    FREQ.     |      %       |
----------------------------------------------
|     -12      |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -11      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -10      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -9      |      8       |     0.23     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -8      |      16      |     0.46     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -7      |      33      |     0.94     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -6      |      61      |     1.73     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -5      |     117      |     3.33     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -4      |     181      |     5.15     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -3      |     307      |     8.73     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -2      |     495      |    14.08     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -1      |     833      |    23.69     |
----------------------------------------------
|      0       |      34      |     0.97     |
----------------------------------------------
|      1       |     828      |    23.55     |
----------------------------------------------
|      2       |     350      |     9.95     |
----------------------------------------------
|      3       |     145      |     4.12     |
----------------------------------------------
|      4       |      53      |     1.51     |
----------------------------------------------
|      5       |      29      |     0.82     |
----------------------------------------------
|      6       |      13      |     0.37     |
----------------------------------------------
|      7       |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|      8       |      2       |     0.06     |
----------------------------------------------
|      9       |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------

Tbl 8. UP AND DOWN ON OPEN VS CLOSE FREQ. TABLE

Shows hom many times in a row the open price is lower(negative numbers) or higher (positive numbers) than the previous days close price.
----------------------------------------------
|     U-D      |    FREQ.     |      %       |
----------------------------------------------
|     -13      |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -12      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -11      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -10      |      6       |     0.17     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -9      |      8       |     0.23     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -8      |      14      |     0.40     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -7      |      22      |     0.63     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -6      |      41      |     1.17     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -5      |      78      |     2.22     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -4      |     143      |     4.07     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -3      |     252      |     7.17     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -2      |     482      |    13.71     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -1      |     908      |    25.82     |
----------------------------------------------
|      0       |     607      |    17.26     |
----------------------------------------------
|      1       |     696      |    19.80     |
----------------------------------------------
|      2       |     190      |     5.40     |
----------------------------------------------
|      3       |      46      |     1.31     |
----------------------------------------------
|      4       |      11      |     0.31     |
----------------------------------------------
|      5       |      4       |     0.11     |
----------------------------------------------
|      6       |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------

Tbl 9. Lower Opening Percentage Next Day when contango

Shows percentage of chance if the next day will open lower and we are in contango for F1-F2
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    POPULATION     |     LOWEROPEN     |    PERCENTAGE     |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|       2936        |       1680        |       57.00       |
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 10. Vix 20 D Low Close Point.

Shows the lowest close quote of the last 20 days of VIX
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|       DATE        |       OPEN        |       CLOSE       |        LOW        |       HIGH        |       MIN20       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-27     |       18.90       |       18.51       |       17.97       |       19.00       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-26     |       19.05       |       18.73       |       18.67       |       19.48       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-25     |       19.56       |       19.08       |       18.99       |       20.90       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-24     |       19.89       |       19.20       |       18.91       |       20.47       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-23     |       20.21       |       19.81       |       19.55       |       20.33       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-20     |       20.28       |       19.85       |       19.41       |       20.70       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-19     |       20.43       |       20.52       |       20.17       |       21.71       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-18     |       19.28       |       20.34       |       18.71       |       20.58       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-17     |       19.89       |       19.36       |       19.21       |       20.22       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-16     |       19.00       |       18.35       |       18.01       |       19.41       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-13     |       19.00       |       18.35       |       18.01       |       19.41       |       18.35       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-12     |       21.56       |       18.83       |       18.83       |       21.80       |       18.83       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-11     |       20.80       |       21.09       |       20.62       |       21.25       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-10     |       22.22       |       20.58       |       20.58       |       22.46       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-09     |       21.75       |       21.97       |       21.27       |       21.98       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-06     |       22.69       |       21.13       |       21.00       |       22.90       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-05     |       22.20       |       22.46       |       21.97       |       22.92       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-04     |       22.93       |       22.01       |       21.94       |       23.27       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2023-01-03     |       23.09       |       22.90       |       22.73       |       23.76       |       20.07       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-12-30     |       21.83       |       21.67       |       21.59       |       22.40       |       19.06       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        
                                                        
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