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Title: 2004 Elections
Author: Noam Chomsky
Date: November 29, 2004
Language: en
Topics: Elections, United States of America
Source: Retrieved on 7th September 2021 from https://chomsky.info/20041129/
Notes: Published in ZNet.

Noam Chomsky

2004 Elections

The elections of November 2004 have received a great deal of discussion,

with exultation in some quarters, despair in others, and general

lamentation about a “divided nation.” They are likely to have policy

consequences, particularly harmful to the public in the domestic arena,

and to the world with regard to the “transformation of the military,”

which has led some prominent strategic analysts to warn of “ultimate

doom” and to hope that US militarism and aggressiveness will be

countered by a coalition of peace-loving states, led by – China! (John

Steinbruner and Nancy Gallagher, Daedalus). We have come to a pretty

pass when such words are expressed in the most respectable and sober

journals. It is also worth noting how deep is the despair of the authors

over the state of American democracy. Whether or not the assessment is

merited is for activists to determine.

Though significant in their consequences, the elections tell us very

little about the state of the country, or the popular mood. There are,

however, other sources from which we can learn a great deal that carries

important lessons. Public opinion in the US is intensively monitored,

and while caution and care in interpretation are always necessary, these

studies are valuable resources. We can also see why the results, though

public, are kept under wraps by the doctrinal institutions. That is true

of major and highly informative studies of public opinion released right

before the election, notably by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations

(CCFR) and the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the U. of

Maryland (PIPA), to which I will return.

One conclusion is that the elections conferred no mandate for anything,

in fact, barely took place, in any serious sense of the term “election.”

That is by no means a novel conclusion. Reagan’s victory in 1980

reflected “the decay of organized party structures, and the vast

mobilization of God and cash in the successful candidacy of a figure

once marginal to the ‘vital center’ of American political life,”

representing “the continued disintegration of those political coalitions

and economic structures that have given party politics some stability

and definition during the past generation” (Thomas Ferguson and Joel

Rogers, Hidden Election, 1981). In the same valuable collection of

essays, Walter Dean Burnham described the election as further evidence

of a “crucial comparative peculiarity of the American political system:

the total absence of a socialist or laborite mass party as an organized

competitor in the electoral market,” accounting for much of the

“class-skewed abstention rates” and the minimal significance of issues.

Thus of the 28% of the electorate who voted for Reagan, 11% gave as

their primary reason “he’s a real conservative.” In Reagan’s ”landslide

victory” of 1984, with just under 30% of the electorate, the percentage

dropped to 4% and a majority of voters hoped that his legislative

program would not be enacted.

What these prominent political scientists describe is part of the

powerful backlash against the terrifying “crisis of democracy” of the

1960s, which threatened to democratize the society, and, despite

enormous efforts to crush this threat to order and discipline, has had

far-reaching effects on consciousness and social practices. The

post-1960s era has been marked by substantial growth of popular

movements dedicated to greater justice and freedom, and unwillingness to

tolerate the brutal aggression and violence that had previously been

granted free rein. The Vietnam war is a dramatic illustration, naturally

suppressed because of the lessons it teaches about the civilizing impact

of popular mobilization. The war against South Vietnam launched by JFK

in 1962, after years of US-backed state terror that had killed tens of

thousands of people, was brutal and barbaric from the outset: bombing,

chemical warfare to destroy food crops so as to starve out the civilian

support for the indigenous resistance, programs to drive millions of

people to virtual concentration camps or urban slums to eliminate its

popular base. By the time protests reached a substantial scale, the

highly respected and quite hawkish Vietnam specialist and military

historian Bernard Fall wondered whether “Viet-Nam as a cultural and

historic entity” would escape “extinction” as “the countryside literally

dies under the blows of the largest military machine ever unleashed on

an area of this size” – particularly South Vietnam, always the main

target of the US assault. And when protest did finally develop, many

years too late, it was mostly directed against the peripheral crimes:

the extension of the war against the South to the rest of Indochina –

terrible crimes, but secondary ones.

State managers are well aware that they no longer have that freedom.

Wars against “much weaker enemies” – the only acceptable targets — must

be won “decisively and rapidly,” Bush I’s intelligence services advised.

Delay might “undercut political support,” recognized to be thin, a great

change since the Kennedy-Johnson period when the attack on Indochina,

while never popular, aroused little reaction for many years. Those

conclusions hold despite the hideous war crimes in Falluja, replicating

the Russian destruction of Grozny ten years earlier, including crimes

displayed on the front pages for which the civilian leadership is

subject to the death penalty under the War Crimes Act passed by the

Republican Congress in 1996 – and also one of the more disgraceful

episodes in the annals of American journalism.

The world is pretty awful today, but it is far better than yesterday,

not only with regard to unwillingness to tolerate aggression, but also

in many other ways, which we now tend to take for granted. There are

very important lessons here, which should always be uppermost in our

minds – for the same reason they are suppressed in the elite culture.

Returning to the elections, in 2004 Bush received the votes of just over

30% of the electorate, Kerry a bit less. Voting patterns resembled 2000,

with virtually the same pattern of “red” and “blue” states (whatever

significance that may have). A small change in voter preference would

have put Kerry in the White House, also telling us very little about the

country and public concerns.

As usual, the electoral campaigns were run by the PR industry, which in

its regular vocation sells toothpaste, life-style drugs, automobiles,

and other commodities. Its guiding principle is deceit. Its task is to

undermine the “free markets” we are taught to revere: mythical entities

in which informed consumers make rational choices. In such scarcely

imaginable systems, businesses would provide information about their

products: cheap, easy, simple. But it is hardly a secret that they do

nothing of the sort. Rather, they seek to delude consumers to choose

their product over some virtually identical one. GM does not simply make

public the characteristics of next year’s models. Rather, it devotes

huge sums to creating images to deceive consumers, featuring sports

stars, sexy models, cars climbing sheer cliffs to a heavenly future, and

so on. The business world does not spend hundreds of billions of dollars

a year to provide information. The famed “entrepreneurial initiative”

and “free trade” are about as realistic as informed consumer choice. The

last thing those who dominate the society want is the fanciful market of

doctrine and economic theory. All of this should be too familiar to

merit much discussion.

Sometimes the commitment to deceit is quite overt. The recent

US-Australia negotiations on a “free trade agreement” were held up by

Washington’s concern over Australia’s health care system, perhaps the

most efficient in the world. In particular, drug prices are a fraction

of those in the US: the same drugs, produced by the same companies,

earning substantial profits in Australia though nothing like those they

are granted in the US – often on the pretext that they are needed for

R&D, another exercise in deceit. Part of the reason for the efficiency

of the Australian system is that, like other countries, Australia relies

on the practices that the Pentagon employs when it buys paper clips:

government purchasing power is used to negotiate prices, illegal in the

US. Another reason is that Australia has kept to “evidence-based”

procedures for marketing pharmaceuticals. US negotiators denounced these

as market interference: pharmaceutical corporations are deprived of

their legitimate rights if they are required to produce evidence when

they claim that their latest product is better than some cheaper

alternative, or run TV ads in which some sports hero or model tells the

audience to ask their doctor whether this drug is “right for you (it’s

right for me),” sometimes not even revealing what it is supposed to be

for. The right of deceit must be guaranteed to the immensely powerful

and pathological immortal persons created by radical judicial activism

to run the society.

When assigned the task of selling candidates, the PR industry naturally

resorts to the same fundamental techniques, so as to ensure that

politics remains “the shadow cast by big business over society,” as

America’s leading social philosopher, John Dewey, described the results

of “industrial feudalism” long ago. Deceit is employed to undermine

democracy, just as it is the natural device to undermine markets. And

voters appear to be aware of it.

On the eve of the 2000 elections, about 75% of the electorate regarded

it as a game played by rich contributors, party managers, and the PR

industry, which trains candidates to project images and produce

meaningless phrases that might win some votes. Very likely, that is why

the population paid little attention to the “stolen election” that

greatly exercised educated sectors. And it is why they are likely to pay

little attention to campaigns about alleged fraud in 2004. If one is

flipping a coin to pick the King, it is of no great concern if the coin

is biased.

In 2000, “issue awareness” – knowledge of the stands of the

candidate-producing organizations on issues – reached an all-time low.

Currently available evidence suggests it may have been even lower in

2004. About 10% of voters said their choice would be based on the

candidate’s “agendas/ideas/platforms/goals”; 6% for Bush voters, 13% for

Kerry voters (Gallup). The rest would vote for what the industry calls

“qualities” or “values,” which are the political counterpart to

toothpaste ads. The most careful studies (PIPA) found that voters had

little idea of the stand of the candidates on matters that concerned

them. Bush voters tended to believe that he shared their beliefs, even

though the Republican Party rejected them, often explicitly.

Investigating the sources used in the studies, we find that the same was

largely true of Kerry voters, unless we give highly sympathetic

interpretations to vague statements that most voters had probably never

heard.

Exit polls found that Bush won large majorities of those concerned with

the threat of terror and “moral values,” and Kerry won majorities among

those concerned with the economy, health care, and other such issues.

Those results tell us very little.

It is easy to demonstrate that for Bush planners, the threat of terror

is a low priority. The invasion of Iraq is only one of many

illustrations. Even their own intelligence agencies agreed with the

consensus among other agencies, and independent specialists, that the

invasion was likely to increase the threat of terror, as it did;

probably nuclear proliferation as well, as also predicted. Such threats

are simply not high priorities as compared with the opportunity to

establish the first secure military bases in a dependent client state at

the heart of the world’s major energy reserves, a region understood

since World War II to be the “most strategically important area of the

world,” “a stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the greatest

material prizes in world history.” Apart from what one historian of the

industry calls “profits beyond the dreams of avarice,” which must flow

in the right direction, control over two-thirds of the world’s estimated

hydrocarbon reserves – uniquely cheap and easy to exploit – provides

what Zbigniew Brzezinski recently called “critical leverage” over

European and Asian rivals, what George Kennan many years earlier had

called “veto power” over them. These have been crucial policy concerns

throughout the post-World War II period, even more so in today’s

evolving tripolar world, with its threat that Europe and Asia might move

towards greater independence, and worse, might be united: China and the

EU became each other’s major trading partners in 2004, joined by the

world’s second largest economy (Japan), and those tendencies are likely

to increase. A firm hand on the spigot reduces these dangers.

Note that the critical issue is control, not access. US policies towards

the Middle East were the same when it was a net exporter of oil, and

remain the same today when US intelligence projects that the US itself

will rely on more stable Atlantic Basin resources. Policies would be

likely to be about the same if the US were to switch to renewable

energy. The need to control the “stupendous source of strategic power”

and to gain “profits beyond the dreams of avarice” would remain.

Jockeying over Central Asia and pipeline routes reflects similar

concerns.

There are many other illustrations of the same lack of concern of

planners about terror. Bush voters, whether they knew it or not, were

voting for a likely increase in the threat of terror, which could be

awesome: it was understood well before 9–11 that sooner or later the

Jihadists organized by the CIA and its associates in the 1980s are

likely to gain access to WMDs, with horrendous consequences. And even

these frightening prospects are being consciously extended by the

transformation of the military, which, apart from increasing the threat

of “ultimate doom” by accidental nuclear war, is compelling Russia to

move nuclear missiles over its huge and mostly unprotected territory to

counter US military threats – including the threat of instant

annihilation that is a core part of the “ownership of space” for

offensive military purposes announced by the Bush administration along

with its National Security Strategy in late 2002, significantly

extending Clinton programs that were more than hazardous enough, and had

already immobilized the UN Disarmament Committee.

As for “moral values,” we learn what we need to know about them from the

business press the day after the election, reporting the “euphoria” in

board rooms – not because CEOs oppose gay marriage. And from the

unconcealed efforts to transfer to future generations the costs of the

dedicated service of Bush planners to privilege and wealth: fiscal and

environmental costs, among others, not to speak of the threat of

“ultimate doom.” That aside, it means little to say that people vote on

the basis of “moral values.” The question is what they mean by the

phrase. The limited indications are of some interest. In some polls,

“when the voters were asked to choose the most urgent moral crisis

facing the country, 33 percent cited ‘greed and materialism,’ 31 percent

selected ‘poverty and economic justice,’ 16 percent named abortion, and

12 percent selected gay marriage” (Pax Christi). In others, “when

surveyed voters were asked to list the moral issue that most affected

their vote, the Iraq war placed first at 42 percent, while 13 percent

named abortion and 9 percent named gay marriage” (Zogby). Whatever

voters meant, it could hardly have been the operative moral values of

the administration, celebrated by the business press.

I won’t go through the details here, but a careful look indicates that

much the same appears to be true for Kerry voters who thought they were

calling for serious attention to the economy, health, and their other

concerns. As in the fake markets constructed by the PR industry, so also

in the fake democracy they run, the public is hardly more than an

irrelevant onlooker, apart from the appeal of carefully constructed

images that have only the vaguest resemblance to reality.

Let’s turn to more serious evidence about public opinion: the studies I

mentioned earlier that were released shortly before the elections by

some of the most respected and reliable institutions that regularly

monitor public opinion. Here are a few of the results (CCFR):

A large majority of the public believe that the US should accept the

jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and the World Court,

sign the Kyoto protocols, allow the UN to take the lead in international

crises, and rely on diplomatic and economic measures more than military

ones in the “war on terror.” Similar majorities believe the US should

resort to force only if there is “strong evidence that the country is in

imminent danger of being attacked,” thus rejecting the bipartisan

consensus on “pre-emptive war” and adopting a rather conventional

interpretation of the UN Charter. A majority even favor giving up the

Security Council veto, hence following the UN lead even if it is not the

preference of US state managers. When official administration moderate

Colin Powell is quoted in the press as saying that Bush “has won a

mandate from the American people to continue pursuing his ‘aggressive’

foreign policy,” he is relying on the conventional assumption that

popular opinion is irrelevant to policy choices by those in charge.

It is instructive to look more closely into popular attitudes on the war

in Iraq, in the light of the general opposition to the “pre-emptive war”

doctrines of the bipartisan consensus. On the eve of the 2004 elections,

“three quarters of Americans say that the US should not have gone to war

if Iraq did not have WMD or was not providing support to al Qaeda, while

nearly half still say the war was the right decision” (Stephen Kull,

reporting the PIPA study he directs). But this is not a contradiction,

Kull points out. Despite the quasi-official Kay and Duelfer reports

undermining the claims, the decision to go to war “is sustained by

persisting beliefs among half of Americans that Iraq provided

substantial support to al Qaeda, and had WMD, or at least a major WMD

program,” and thus see the invasion as defense against an imminent

severe threat. Much earlier PIPA studies had shown that a large majority

believe that the UN, not the US, should take the lead in matters of

security, reconstruction, and political transition in Iraq. Last March,

Spanish voters were bitterly condemned for appeasing terror when they

voted out of office the government that had gone to war over the

objections of about 90% of the population, taking its orders from

Crawford Texas, and winning plaudits for its leadership in the “New

Europe” that is the hope of democracy. Few if any commentators noted

that Spanish voters last March were taking about the same position as

the large majority of Americans: voting for removing Spanish troops

unless they were under UN direction. The major differences between the

two countries are that in Spain, public opinion was known, while here it

takes an individual research project to discover it; and in Spain the

issue came to a vote, almost unimaginable in the deteriorating formal

democracy here.

These results indicate that activists have not done their job

effectively.

Turning to other areas, overwhelming majorities of the public favor

expansion of domestic programs: primarily health care (80%), but also

aid to education and Social Security. Similar results have long been

found in these studies (CCFR). Other mainstream polls report that 80%

favor guaranteed health care even if it would raise taxes – in reality,

a national health care system would probably reduce expenses

considerably, avoiding the heavy costs of bureaucracy, supervision,

paperwork, and so on, some of the factors that render the US privatized

system the most inefficient in the industrial world. Public opinion has

been similar for a long time, with numbers varying depending on how

questions are asked. The facts are sometimes discussed in the press,

with public preferences noted but dismissed as “politically impossible.”

That happened again on the eve of the 2004 elections. A few days before

(Oct. 31), the NY Times reported that “there is so little political

support for government intervention in the health care market in the

United States that Senator John Kerry took pains in a recent

presidential debate to say that his plan for expanding access to health

insurance would not create a new government program” – what the majority

want, so it appears. But it is “politically impossible” and has “[too]

little political support,” meaning that the insurance companies, HMOs,

pharmaceutical industries, Wall Street, etc., are opposed.

It is notable that such views are held by people in virtual isolation.

They rarely hear them, and it is not unlikely that respondents regard

their own views as idiosyncratic. Their preferences do not enter into

the political campaigns, and only marginally receive some reinforcement

in articulate opinion in media and journals. The same extends to other

domains.

What would the results of the election have been if the parties, either

of them, had been willing to articulate people’s concerns on the issues

they regard as vitally important? Or if these issues could enter into

public discussion within the mainstream? We can only speculate about

that, but we do know that it does not happen, and that the facts are

scarcely even reported. It does not seem difficult to imagine what the

reasons might be.

In brief, we learn very little of any significance from the elections,

but we can learn a lot from the studies of public attitudes that are

kept in the shadows. Though it is natural for doctrinal systems to try

to induce pessimism, hopelessness and despair, the real lessons are

quite different. They are encouraging and hopeful. They show that there

are substantial opportunities for education and organizing, including

the development of potential electoral alternatives. As in the past,

rights will not be granted by benevolent authorities, or won by

intermittent actions – a few large demonstrations after which one goes

home, or pushing a lever in the personalized quadrennial extravaganzas

that are depicted as “democratic politics.” As always in the past, the

tasks require day-to-day engagement to create – in part re-create – the

basis for a functioning democratic culture in which the public plays

some role in determining policies, not only in the political arena from

which it is largely excluded, but also in the crucial economic arena,

from which it is excluded in principle.