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2010-11-27 09:36:30
A&E unit A&E units tend to gear themselves up for the winter
Taking the temperature outside A&E could give staff an accurate way to predict
number of injuries and who will suffer them.
Experts know that extreme weather can affect A&E patient numbers.
Warwick University researchers found that even 5C falls or rises could make a
difference to injury rates.
Rates for children were up to 70% higher in summer compared with winter, the
Emergency Medicine Journal reported.
Many trusts plan ahead for winter, when the arrival of frost, snow and ice, as
well as flu and pneumonia, is traditionally linked to busier shifts.
The study of 60,000 patients found that each 5C drop in minimum temperature
during the day meant a three per cent rise in serious accidents to adults.
Heat of summer
The arrival of snow and ice led to an eight per cent rise, as the number of
slips, trips and car accidents rose.
However, the study found other increases linked to the heat of the summer,
often viewed as a slightly calmer period in emergency departments.
Even among adults, every five degree centigrade rise in maximum temperature
during the day, and additional two hours of sunshine, meant a 2% rise in the
rate of serious injury.
Start Quote
We've always known that there is increased activity in emergency departments
during winter, but in recent years, we've noticed that this doesn't really
diminish during the summer months - we remain busy all year round
End Quote Professor John Heyworth College of Emergency Medicine
This effect was particularly noticeable in children, who are more likely to get
injured while playing outside during the warmer months.
For them, a 5C rise meant a 10% increase in injury cases, and two hours of
extra sunshine boosted cases by six per cent.
While these connections were made by comparing records of hospital admissions
with historical weather data, the researchers are convinced that the principle
could be used to help emergency teams plan ahead for days when their workload
is likely to be higher.
They wrote: "This model could clearly be used to provide predictions of daily
admissions, with clear implications for the scheduling of staff and other
resources at UK trauma-receiving hospitals.
"The challenge for the future is to improve forecast accuracy further in order
to provide sufficient time for the detailed planning and allocation of
resources that would be necessary to implement these models."
Professor John Heyworth, president of the College of Emergency Medicine, agreed
that the detailed study could help clinical teams know what to expect on any
particular day, although he questioned whether the current accuracy of
medium-term weather forecasts was good enough to justify staffing changes.
He said: "We've always known that there is increased activity in emergency
departments during winter, but in recent years, we've noticed that this doesn't
really diminish during the summer months - we remain busy all year round.
"If you have your emergency department set up to deal with this expected load,
then you can deal with extra cases due to weather conditions.
"However, this is a very helpful study."