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⬅️ Previous capture (2021-11-30)
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Looking into this possible incoming crypto bubble burst by looking at past bubble bursts.
For the past four years this person has invested $100 the top ten coins of the year and tracked the gains/losses. Pretty hard look at long term prospects and puts current gains into perspective.
https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/
Some people say there won't be a bubble burst because so many new people are coming in. Some say it won't be until the end of the year. Some say it will be next week. It's clear to see in the graphs that almost all currencies have doubled in value in the past 4-6 weeks. Realistically sustainable? Unlikely. This is a crazypants boom.
Is now a good time to buy in for long term investing? Prob not. Everything is at the peak of peaks.
Is now a good time for strategic short term investments to reap profits? More likely. Make hay while the sun shines. Save profits, reinvest when prices deflate.
I see why it's a smart strategy to invest smaller amounts over time rather than YOLOing a large lump sum into the void and hoping. Less fun, tho. Doesn't have that Vegas energy. Probably a good thing I don't have a big sum to YOLO.
Bitcoin is climbing past $49k but there is a big sell wall building at 50k. As soon as the price touches that wall (which could be a matter of hours, who knows), bitcoin prices will drop in chunks. As it falls, many currencies will follow the tide in a cascading correction. Maybe the market will ultimately push through and keep rising, or maybe investors will panic sell and make it worse. I have erred on the side of caution with my gambling monies today - now that I see this I think others are doing this too, because the market feels sluggish and anxious suddenly after so much enthusiasm. I will hold and wait for the drop. Crypto is a funny ecosystem. The human element likes clustering at certain significant whole numbers and has an emotional quality like a simple religion (Do you have faith in the $50k number of our lord and savior bitcoin? Then buy buy buy! Like, I wonder how a warhammer 40k setting would meld with a crypto financial system. It's probably exactly what they use. Totally fits.). The dominant coins (bitcoin and etherium) set the tempo for the smaller alt coins. Cycles within cycles. It's not possible to ignore bitcoin or etherium even if you don't own any.
It reminds me of bidding on auctions at ebay. You learn to pick oddball numbers to hopefully beat someone by a few cents in that last fraction of a second. Same thing with buying or selling crypto.
Only humans care about the significance of 50. Trading would probably go much smoother without people clinging to favorite numbers.
I still like the number 7 though.