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Over the next few decades, life expectancy for the average American could
decline by as much as 5 years unless aggressive efforts are made to slow rising
rates of obesity, according to a team of scientists supported in part by the
National Institute on Aging (NIA), a component of the National Institutes of
Health (NIH) of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS).
The U.S. could be facing its first sustained drop in life expectancy in the
modern era, the researchers say, but this decline is not inevitable if
Americans particularly younger ones trim their waistlines or if other
improvements outweigh the impact of obesity. The new report in the March 17,
2005 issue of The New England Journal of Medicine appears little more than a
year after the DHHS unveiled a new national education campaign and research
strategy to combat obesity and excessive weight.
The new analysis, by S. Jay Olshansky, PhD, of the University of Illinois at
Chicago, Leonard Hayflick, Ph.D., of the University of California, San
Francisco, Robert N. Butler, M.D., of the International Longevity Center in New
York, and others* suggests that the methods used to establish life expectancy
projections, which have long been based on historic trends, need to be
reassessed. This reevaluation is particularly important, they say, as obesity
rates surge in today s children and young adults.
Forecasting life expectancy by extrapolating from the past is like forecasting
the weather on the basis of its history, Olshansky and his colleagues write.
Looking out the window, we see a threatening storm obesity that will, if
unchecked, have a negative effect on life expectancy.
Unlike historic life expectancy forecasts, which rely on past mortality trends,
the Olshansky group bases their projection on an analysis of body mass indexes
and other factors that could potentially affect the health and well-being of
the current generation of children and young adults, some of whom began having
weight problems very early in life. The authors say that unless steps are taken
to curb excessive weight gain, younger Americans will likely face a greater
risk of mortality throughout life than previous generations.
This work paints a disturbing portrait of the potential effect that life
styles of baby boomers and the next generation could have on life expectancy,
says Richard M. Suzman, Ph.D., Associate Director of the NIA for Behavioral and
Social Research. Indeed, Suzman notes, obesity may already have had an effect.
The sharp increase of obesity among people now in their 60s, he suggests, may
be one explanation why the gains in U.S. life expectancy at older ages have
been less than those of other developed countries in recent years.
But it is critical to note that the reduced life expectancy forecast by the
study is not inevitable, and there is room for optimism, Suzman says.
Government and private sector efforts are mobilizing against obesity, and
increased education, improved medical treatments, and reduced smoking can tip
the balance in favor of reduced mortality and continued improvements in life
expectancy.
For instance, smoking significantly reduces the life expectancy of the average
smoker, Suzman says, so obesity is just one of many factors that will need to
be accounted for, together or separately, in projecting how Americans will age.
The NIA supports several projects on population demography that forecast life
and health expectancy, research which is critically important to policy makers
looking at the implications of an aging population.
According to the NEJM report, studies suggest that two-thirds of American
adults are overweight (having a body mass index BMI of 25 or more) or obese
(having a BMI of 30 or more)**. One study cited by the authors indicates that
the prevalence of obesity in U.S. adults has increased about 50 percent per
decade since 1980. Additional research has shown that people who are severely
obese with a BMI greater than 45 live up to 20 years less than people who
are not overweight. Some researchers have estimated that obesity causes about
300,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. In addition, obesity is fueling an
epidemic of type 2 diabetes, which also reduces lifespan.
To estimate the overall effect of obesity on life expectancy in the U.S.,
Olshansky and his colleagues calculated the reduction in death rates that would
occur if everyone who is currently obese were to achieve the difficult goal of
losing enough weight to reach an optimal BMI of 24. The calculation was
based, in part, on age, race, and sex-specific prevalence of obesity in the
United States from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Based on these calculations, the researchers estimated that life expectancy at
birth would be higher by 0.33 to 0.93 year for white men, 0.30 to 0.81 year for
white women, 0.30 to 1.08 year for black men, and 0.21 to 0.73 year for black
women if obesity did not exist.
The overall reduction in life expectancy of one-third to three-fourths of a
year attributed to obesity in this analysis exceeds the negative effect of all
accidental deaths combined, and could deteriorate over time, the researchers
said.
These trends suggest that the relative influence of obesity on the life
expectancy of future generations could be markedly worse than it is for current
generations, Olshansky and the authors conclude in their report. In other
words, the life-shortening effect of obesity could rise to two to five years,
or more, in the coming decades, as the obese who are now at younger ages carry
their elevated risk of death into middle and older ages.
The projected decline contrasts with estimates by other leading researchers,
which predict a continuation of the historic trend of increasing life
expectancy in America and Europe dating back to the 1850s, according to Dr.
Suzman. In fact, he points out that the experience of other developed nations
is instructive as a barometer of how much room might exist to increase U.S.
life expectancy. More than 20 other developed nations, including France, Japan,
Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom have a higher average life expectancy
than the U.S. Women in Japan, for example, live about 5 years longer than women
in the U.S. There is little evidence that life expectancy in these countries is
approaching any kind of limit, Suzman says.
In March 2004, the DHHS launched public awareness campaign, entitled Healthy
Lifestyles and Disease Prevention, to encourage American families to take
small, manageable steps within their current lifestyle, such as using the
stairs instead of the elevator, to ensure effective, long-term weight control.
The campaign includes multi-media public service announcements (PSAs) and a new
interactive website, www.smallstep.gov.
In addition, the NIA has developed a free exercise guide for older adults,
which is available online at www.nia.nih.gov. The NIH and other Federal
agencies also offer free information about excessive weight and what can be
done about it, including the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and
Kidney Diseases http://win.niddk.nih.gov/publications/choosing.htm, the Food
and Drug Administration http://www.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/wh-wght.html, and the
Federal Consumer Information Center http://www.pueblo.gsa.gov/cic_text/health/
works4you/weightloss.htm.
This research was also supported by the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs at the University of Illinois at Chicago and the Charles H. Hood
Foundation.
The NIA is one of 27 Institutes and Centers at the National Institutes of
Health (NIH), part of the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. The NIA
leads the Federal Government effort conducting and supporting research on the
biomedical and social and behavioral aspects of aging and the problems of older
people. For more information on aging-related research and the NIA, please
visit the NIA website at www.nia.nih.gov. The public may also call for
publications describing these efforts and offering health information for older
people and their families at 1-800-222-2225, the toll free number for the
National Institute on Aging Information Center.
L, Butler RN, Allison DB, and Ludwig DS, A Potential Decline in Life
Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century, New England Journal of
Medicine, 352:11, pp. 1138-1145.
calculated with simple math using inches and pounds, or meters and kilograms.
For adults aged 20 years or older, BMI falls into one of these categories:
underweight, normal, overweight, or obese. Based on BMI, a 6-foot-tall man, for
instance, is considered overweight if he weighs more than 190 pounds and obese
if he weighs greater than 220 pounds. A 5-foot-4 woman is considered overweight
if she weighs more than 150 pounds and obese if her weight exceeds 173 pounds.
CONTACT:
Doug Dollemore
301-496-1752
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
5:00 p.m. ET
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Posted: 2010891@569.37
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stranger
Life Expectancy on Decline? Health Blog
May 4th, 2010
It is said that for a parent to outlive their child is one of life s most soul
shattering experiences a total disruption of the natural order. It is also a
staple of Hollywood films from Pet Sematary to Ordinary People. Unfortunately,
it looks that we now have an example of life imitating art and not just for a
handful of families. If current projections are correct, children dying before
their parents is about to become the norm.
A new study published in the April 12 issue of the International Journal of
Obesity reports that Americans born between 1966 and 1985 became obese at a
much earlier age than their parents, and they are not dropping the extra
pounds. Plus, as I constantly remind readers, far more young people are obese
now than back a generation or so ago. This makes it much more likely that they
ll be outlived by their parents, the baby boomers.
In a news release, researcher Joyce Lee, MD, MPH, a pediatric endocrinologist
at the University of Michigan, reiterates this point. Our research indicates
that higher numbers of young and middle-age American adults are becoming obese
at younger and younger ages. The study found 20% of people born between 1966
and 1985 were obese in their 20s. Their parents did not reach that obesity
prevalence milestone until their 30s, and their grandparents did not reach that
milestone until their 40s or 50s. In other words, more Americans are getting
heavier earlier in their lives and carrying the extra weight longer, and the
impact of this is likely to shorten life expectancy.
The link between obesity and shortened life expectancy is well established. A
2005 report by the National Institute on Aging (NIA), for example, showed that
the average American is on track to lose five years of life expectancy due to
increasing rates of obesity. The researchers analyzed trends in mortality rates
as well as trends in body mass indexes and other factors that could affect the
health of the current generation of children and young adults. They concluded
that without aggressive steps to curb the rise of obesity, children and young
adults will face a much greater risk of mortality throughout their lives than
their elders.
The NIA authors reported studies showing that two-thirds of American adults are
overweight and that the prevalence of obesity in U.S. adults has increased
about 50 percent per decade since 1980. They pointed to additional research
indicating that severely obese people live up to 20 years less than people who
are not overweight. Some researchers estimated that obesity causes about
300,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. In addition, obesity is fueling an
epidemic of type-2 diabetes, which also reduces lifespan.
Richard M. Suzman, Ph.D., Associate Director of the NIA for Behavioral and
Social Research said, This work paints a disturbing portrait of the potential
effect that lifestyles of baby boomers and the next generation could have on
life expectancy. But it is critical to note that the reduced life expectancy
forecast by the study is not inevitable, and there is room for optimism.
Government and private sector efforts are mobilizing against obesity, and
increased education, improved medical treatments, and reduced smoking can tip
the balance in favor of reduced mortality and continued improvements in life
expectancy.
Back in 2003, a study of 14,000 Americans published in the Journal of the
American Medical Association took a darker view. The director of that study,
Dr. David Allison of the University of Alabama, said, Obesity has a profound
effect on life span. It increases the risk for several life-threatening
conditions, including heart disease, diabetes and some types of cancer. Younger
people are especially vulnerable, in part because they have more years to live
and more time for the obesity to take its toll. And more recent research
published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2009 also makes Dr. Suzman
s hopeful outlook seem a bit naive. That study showed that if the current
trends in obesity continue, by 2020, nearly half the U.S population (45%) will
be obese by World Health Organization standards. This means that even more
people will experience the increased risks for heart disease, diabetes and
other health complications associated with obesity.
I ve written many times that we can t continue to eat more and do less without
putting on weight. I recently discussed the impact of increased portion sizes
at restaurants. And the impact of our greater reliance on processed, calorie
rich foods is a well-worn subject in my blog posts. Still the obesity challenge
remains. If it continues unabated, the favorite parental threat, Over my dead
body, will one-day make no sense, since so many kids won t last long enough to
see their own parents die.
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screens and slow internet connections. ---http://mpggalaxy.mine.bz/www/BB/
mobile_news/threads/index_last.html
Posted: 2010891@569.83
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stranger
This is all the more worrying as rich european and asian urban populations are
following the american trends.
Processed food, too large portions, excess of salt, sugar and fat, excessive
eating of meat and dairy products, insufficient eating of fresh fruits and
vegetables, short time for lunch, lack of knowledge about food properties, lack
of physical activities are indicators of the despise and lack of attention we
bare to our food. Which turns into our body. Thus to us and the knowledge of
ourselves.
A look at the world prevalence of obesity reminds us that food traditions in
Europe and Asia could be a solution.
We should pay more attention to mediterranean, japanese ot chinese ways of
eating, but this supposes changes in the agro industry, in agriculture, in
advertising, in people tastes and in our way of looking at food.
Education is the solution to solve this issue while 1 billion people have the
biggest difficulties to access to diversified food and drinkable water.
And we will use corn and wheat to move the vehicles that prevent us to walk,
trigerring the rise of prices of corn and wheat in developping countries ?
Scarcity and abundancy can be dangerous. Temperance must be taught.