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The global internet is disintegrating. What comes next?

Russia is the latest country to try to find ways to police its online borders,

sparking the end of the internet as we know it.

In 1648, the Treaty of Westphalia was signed, ending 30 years of war across

Europe and bringing about the sovereignty of states. The rights of states to

control and defend their own territory became the core foundation of our global

political order, and it has remained unchallenged since.

In 2010, a delegation of countries including Syria and Russia came to an

obscure agency of the United Nations with a strange request: to inscribe those

same sovereign borders onto the digital world. They wanted to allow countries

to assign internet addresses on a country by country basis, the way country

codes were originally assigned for phone numbers, says Hascall Sharp, an

independent internet policy consultant who at the time was director of

technology policy at technology giant Cisco.

After a year of negotiating, the request came to nothing: creating such

boundaries would have allowed nations to exert tight controls over their own

citizens, contravening the open spirit of the internet as a borderless space

free from the dictates of any individual government.

Nearly a decade on, that borderless spirit seems like a quaint memory. The

nations who left the UN empty-handed had not been disabused of the notion that

you could put a wall around your corner of cyberspace. They ve simply spent the

past decade pursuing better ways to make it happen.

Indeed, Russia is already exploring a novel approach to creating a digital

border wall, and last month it passed two bills that mandate technological and

legal steps to isolate the Russian internet. It is one of a growing number of

countries that has had enough of the Western-built, Western-controlled internet

backbone. And while Russia s efforts are hardly the first attempt to secure

exactly what information can and can t enter a country, its approach is a

fundamental departure from past efforts.

This is different, says Robert Morgus, a senior cybersecurity analyst at the

New America Foundation. Russia s ambitions are to go further than anyone with

the possible exceptions of North Korea and Iran in fracturing the global

internet.

Russia s approach is a glimpse into the future of internet sovereignty. Today,

the countries pursuing digital Westphalianism are no longer just the usual

authoritarian suspects, and they are doing so at deeper levels than ever

before. Their project is aided as much by advances in technology as by growing

global misgivings about whether the open internet was ever such a good idea to

start with. The new methods raise the possibility not only of countries pulling

up their own drawbridges, but of alliances between like-minded countries

building on these architectures to establish a parallel internet.

What s wrong with the open internet?

It s well known that some countries are unhappy with the Western coalition that

has traditionally held sway over internet governance. It s not just the

philosophies espoused by the West that troubles them, but the way those

philosophies were baked into the very architecture of the internet, which is

rather famously engineered to ensure no one can prevent anyone from sending

anything to anyone.

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That s thanks to the baseline protocol the 2010 delegation were trying to work

around: TCP/IP (transfer control protocol/internet protocol) allows information

to flow with absolutely no regard for geography or content. It doesn t care

what information is being sent, what country it s coming from, or the laws in

the country receiving it; all it cares about is the internet address at either

end of the transaction. Which is why, instead of sending data across

predetermined paths, which might be diverted or cut off, TCP/IP will get

packets of information from point A to point B by any means necessary.

It s easy to dismiss objections to this setup as the dying cries of

authoritarian regimes in the face of a global democratising force but the

problems that arise don t just affect authoritarian regimes. Any government

might be worried about malicious information like malware reaching military

installations and critical water and power grids, or fake news influencing the

electorate.

Russia and China were just earlier than others in understanding the potential

impact that a massively open information ecosystem would have on humans and

human decision-making, especially at the political level, says Morgus. Their

view was that a country s citizens are just as much a part of the critical

infrastructure as power plants, and they need to be protected from malicious

information targeting them in this case fake news rather than viruses. But

this is not about protecting citizens as much as controlling them, says Lincoln

Pigman, a Russia scholar at the University of Oxford and a research fellow at

the Foreign Policy Centre think tank in London.

A sovereign internet is not a separate internet

Russia and China started talking publicly about the sovereign internet around

2011 or 2012, as Russia s two-year winter of protest was beginning to take

hold, and as internet-borne revolutions rocked other authoritarian regimes.

Convinced that these revolts had been stirred up by Western states, Russia

sought to stop disruptive influences from reaching their citizens essentially

creating checks at its digital borders.

But internet sovereignty is not as simple as cutting yourself off from the

global internet. That may seem counterintuitive, but to illustrate how

self-defeating such a move would be, one need look no further than North Korea.

A single cable connects the country to the rest of the global internet. You can

disconnect it with the flip of a switch. But few countries would consider

implementing a similar infrastructure. From a hardware perspective alone, it s

close to impossible.

In countries with rich and diverse connectivity to the rest of the internet,

it would be virtually impossible to identify all the ingress and egress points,

says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of Wisconsin at

Madison, who maps the network of physical pipes and cables through which the

global internet runs. Even if Russia could somehow find all the hardware by

which information travels into and out of the country, it wouldn t serve them

very well to close these faucets, unless they are also happy to be separated

from the world economy. The internet is now a vital part of global commerce,

and Russia can t disconnect itself from this system without mangling its

economy.

The trick, it would seem, is to keep some types of information flowing freely

while impeding others. But how can this sort of internet sovereignty possibly

work, given TCP/IP s notorious agnosticism?

The leader in separating problematic from authorised internet content has

traditionally been China. Its Golden Shield, otherwise known as the Great

Firewall of China, famously employs filters to selectively block certain

internet addresses, certain words, certain IP addresses and so on. This

solution is by no means perfect: it s software-based, meaning that programmers

can design further software to circumvent it. Virtual Private Networks and

censorship avoidance software like Tor get around it.

More to the point, the Chinese system won t work for Russia. For one thing, it

relies heavily on the big Chinese platforms taking the content down , says Adam

Segal, a cybersecurity expert with US think tank, the Council on Foreign

Relations, whereas Russia is more reliant on US social media companies .

Much of China s advantage also comes down to the physical pipes its internet is

built on. China, suspicious of the new Western technology from the get-go, only

permitted very few entry and exit points to be built from the global internet

into its borders, whereas Russia was initially quite welcoming of the internet

boom and is now consequently riddled with interconnects. China simply has fewer

digital borders to keep an eye on.

So, Russia can t afford to turn itself into a corporate internet. And it can t

replicate China s approach. Russia is therefore working on a hybrid method that

neither relies entirely on hardware nor on software instead messing with the

set of processes and protocols that determine whether internet traffic can move

from its origin to its intended destination. Internet protocols specify how all

information must be addressed by your computer, in order to be transmitted and

routed across the global wires; it s a bit like how a Windows machine knows it

can t boot up an Apple operating system. This is not one specific thing. In

effect a protocol is a combination of different things like data, an

algorithm, IP address across different layers, says Dominique Lazanski, who

works on international internet governance and consults on standards

development.

One of the most fundamental of these is the DNS standard the address book

that tells the internet how to translate an IP address, for example

38.160.150.31, into a human-legible internet address like bbc.co.uk, and points

the way to the server that houses that IP location.

It s DNS that Russia has been setting its sights on. At the beginning of April,

the country was supposed to test a new method of isolating the entire country s

internet traffic so that citizen internet traffic would only stay within the

country s geographical boundaries instead of bouncing around the world. The

plan which was met with skepticism from much of the engineering community, if

not dismissed outright was to create a Russia-only copy of the DNS servers

(the internet s address book, currently headquartered in California) so that

citizens traffic would be exclusively directed to Russian sites, or Russian

versions of external sites. It would send Russian internet users to Yandex if

they typed in Google, or the social network VK instead of Facebook.

To lay the groundwork for this, Russia spent years enacting laws that force

international companies to store all Russian citizens data inside the country

leading some companies such as LinkedIn to be blocked when they refused to

comply.

If Russia succeeds in its ultimate plans for a national DNS, there wouldn t be

any need for filtering out international information. Russian internet traffic

would just never need to leave the country, says Morgus. That means that the

only stuff that Russians or anyone would be able to access from inside

Russia is information that's hosted inside Russia, on servers physically in the

country. That would also mean no one can access external information, whether

that is their external cash or whether it's Amazon to buy that scarf.

Most experts acknowledge that Russia s primary goal in doing this is to

increase its control over its own citizens. But the action may have global

consequences too.

The approaches taken by Russia and China are too expensive for smaller

countries to emulate, but that doesn t mean they won t be influential. The

spread particularly of repressive policies or illiberal internet architecture

is like a game of copycat, says Morgus. His observation is borne out by

research done by Jaclyn Kerr at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Authoritarian adoption of digital solutions that shape the extent and type of

Internet control they exert, she finds, is likely driven by three variables.

The first is just what s available out there. The second is whether the regime

can afford to implement any of the available options. The third variable the

policies selected by the states in the regime s reference group is a kind of

keeping up with the Joneses that explains why it has been described as a game

of copycat: what policies have its buddies endorsed or chosen? This often

hinges on the attitude of the regime; are its friends open or illiberal when it

comes to internet control?

Regarding the first variable, Russia's neighbours, like the Central Asian

Republics, could certainly leverage Russia's architecture like the Russian

DNS to connect only to the RUnet version of the internet. This would

essentially expand the proposed borders of the RUnet to their periphery, says

Morgus.

The digital deciders

As regards the third variable, the list of countries that find themselves

attracted to more authoritarian internet governance seems to be growing. Not

all countries fall neatly into one or the other of the open internet and

authoritarian repressive peer groups when it comes to how they treat their

countries internet. Israel for example, lies neatly between the two extremes,

as Morgus and his colleagues Jocelyn Woolbright and Justin Sherman pointed out

in a paper published last year. They found that over the past four years,

digital decider states Israel, Singapore, Brazil, Ukraine, and India among

others have drifted increasingly toward a more sovereign and closed approach

to information. The reasons for their drift are varied, but several of these

countries are in similar situations: Ukraine, Israel, and South Korea, which

exist in a perpetual state of conflict, have found their adversaries

weaponising the internet against them. Some experts find that the strategic use

of the internet in particular social media has become like war. Even South

Korea despite its reputation as open and global has developed a

groundbreaking technique to crack down on illegal information online.

But can the deciders really copy China or Russia s model? China s technological

means to sovereignty is too idiosyncratic for smaller countries to follow;

Russia s is not yet fully tested. Both cost a minimum of hundreds of millions

to set up.

Two of the largest digital decider countries, Brazil and India, have long

sought a way to deal with the global internet that relies neither on the open

values of the West nor on closed national intranets. Their internet and

political values sit very much in the middle of the spectrum, says Morgus. For

the better part of the last decade, both have tried to come up with a viable

alternative to the two opposing versions of the internet we see today.

That innovation was hinted at in 2017, when the Russian propaganda site RT

reported that Brazil and India would team up with Russia, China and South

Africa, to develop an alternative they referred to as the BRICS Internet.

Russia claimed it was creating the infrastructure to shield them from external

influence .

The plan fell through. Both Russia and China were interested in pursuing

BRICS, but the rest were less enthusiastic, says Lazanski. Brazil s change in

leadership in particular derailed it.

Belt Road Initiative

Some see the groundwork being laid for a second try in the guise of China s

Belt and Road Initiative, China s 21st Century silk road project to connect

Asia to Europe and Africa by building a vast network of overland corridors,

shipping lanes and telecommunications infrastructure in countries like

Tajikistan, Djibouti and Zimbabwe. According to estimates from the

International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, China is now engaged

in some 80 telecommunications projects around the world from laying cables to

building core networks in other countries, contributing to a significant and

growing Chinese-owned global network.

There could be a very significant infrastructure element to these plans, says

Sim Tack, an analyst formerly with Jane s who now works with the intelligence

group Stratfor. One possibility is a scenario where enough of these countries

join Russia and China to develop a similar infrastructure to a point where they

could sustain each other economically without doing business with the rest of

the world, meaning they could shut themselves off the Western internet. Smaller

countries might prefer an internet built around a non-Western standard, and an

economic infrastructure built around China might be the third way that allows

countries to participate in a semi-global economy while being able to control

certain aspects of their populations internet experience. Tack, however,

argues that such a self-sustainable walled off internet economy, while

possible, is also extremely unlikely.

Maria Farrell of the internet freedom campaign organisation Open Rights Group

doesn t think it s too far-fetched, though the separate internet may take a

slightly different form. The Belt and Road Initiative, she says, offers a

plug-and-play internet that gives decider countries, for the first time, an

option for getting online that does not depend on the Western internet

infrastructure.

What China has done is put together a whole suite of not just technology, but

information systems, censorship training, and model laws for surveillance, she

says. It s the full kit, and the laws, and the training, to execute a Chinese

version of the internet. It s cheap. And it s being sold as a credible

alternative to a Western internet that increasingly feels open in name only.

Nations like Zimbabwe and Djibouti, and Uganda, they don t want to join an

internet that s just a gateway for Google and Facebook to colonise their

digital spaces, she says. Neither do these countries want to welcome this

openness offered by the Western internet only to see their governments

undermined by espionage. Along with every other expert interviewed for this

article, Farrell reiterated how unwise it would be underestimate the ongoing

reverberations of the Snowden revelations especially the extent to which they

undermined the decider countries trust in the open web.

The poorer countries especially, that scared the bejesus out of them, she

says. It showed what we had all suspected was actually true.

Just as Russia is working to reinvent DNS, the Belt and Road Initiative s

plug-and-play authoritarian internet gives countries that sign up access to

China s [bespoke] internet protocols. TCP/IP is not a static standard, points

out David Conrad, chief technology officer of the International Corporation of

Assigned Names and Numbers, which issues and oversees major domain names, and

runs DNS. It is always evolving. Nothing on the internet is unchanging.

But their evolution is careful and slow and based on global consensus on a

single internet. If that were to change, TCP/IP might well bifurcate, says

Morgus. For well over a decade, China and Russia have been pushing the internet

community to nudge the protocol toward greater identifiability, adds Farrell, a

development that won t surprise anyone familiar with its mass adoption of face

recognition for tracking its citizens in the physical world.

Western contagion

But maybe the authoritarian countries have less of a job to do than they

thought.

More and more Western countries are being forced to think about what that

means, sovereignty on the internet, says Tack. In the wake of recent election

meddling, and the well-documented practice by Russian governments to sow

discord on Western social media, Western policymakers woke up to the idea that

an open and free internet could actually harm democracy itself, Morgus says.

The parallel rise of populism in the United States and elsewhere, coupled with

concerns about the collapse of liberal international order, saw many of the

traditional open internet sword-bearers retreat into their shells.

It s not about bad countries and good countries it s about any country that

wants to suppress communications, says Milton Mueller, who runs the Internet

Governance Project at Georgia Tech University in Atlanta. The worst thing I ve

seen lately is the British online harms bill. This white paper proposes the

creation of an independent regulator, tasked with establishing good practices

for internet platforms to follow and punishments to mete out if they don t.

These good practices limit the kind of information that would be familiar to

anyone keeping up with recent Russian internet laws: revenge porn, hate crimes,

harassment and trolling, content uploaded by prisoners, and disinformation.

Indeed, the very multinationals that decider countries fear today might be

eager to be enlisted to help them meet their goals of information sovereignty.

Facebook has recently capitulated to growing pressure by calling for government

regulation to determine, among other things, what constitutes harmful content:

hate speech, terrorist propaganda and more . Google is rather famously working

to have its cake and eat it too, by providing an open internet in the West

(which it may open to Western governments every now and again) and a censored

search engine in the East. I suspect there will always be a tension between

desires to limit communication but not limit the benefits that communication

can bring, says Conrad.

A separate internet for some, Facebook-mediated sovereignty for others: whether

the information borders are drawn up by individual countries, coalitions, or

global internet platforms, one thing is clear the open internet that its

early creators dreamed of is already gone.

The internet hasn t been one globally connected thing in a long time, says

Lazanski.

--

Sally Adee is a freelance science and technology writer. She blogs at the

science writing collective The Last Word on Nothing.