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Oct 6th 2010, 18:53 by The Economist online
TECHNOLOGICAL prophets have forecast the triumph of video-calling ever since
1936, when Germany s Reichspost launched the first public videophone service.
But a flurry of announcements from technology companies suggests that its time
may at last be at hand. On October 6th Cisco unveiled a video-calling system
for the living room called ūmi telepresence (yes, really). The same day
Logitech launched a television set-top box that doubles as a videophone.
Microsoft s new Xbox game console, due in November, will offer
videoconferencing.
The market for professional video gear is also in flux. Skype, a service that
allows users to make calls from their personal computer (PC), is moving into
this territory. PCs from Hewlett-Packard will soon come with video software
from Vidyo, an American start-up. And in April Cisco bought Tandberg, another
maker of video gear, for $3.3 billion.
All this activity is a reaction to the growing popularity of video
communication. Video calls accounted for about 40% of the 95 billion minutes
that people spent on Skype in the first half of this year. Although Cisco has
sold only about 900 telepresence rooms so far, this is far from shabby,
considering that such systems cost up to $350,000 a pop and often entail
expensive network upgrades (with which the firm makes most of its money).
Vendors of lower-end systems, such as Polycom, are not doing badly either.
Better technology is only one reason for the uptake. Attitudes towards video
communications have also changed, says Scott Morrison of Gartner, a market
researcher. Having used it at home to let Grandma see the children on their
PCs, people now feel more comfortable trying video communication at work. Most
important, senior executives have warmed to the high-end telepresence systems
sold by Cisco and others, boosting the use of the technology further down the
corporate hierarchy.
Cisco and Logitech want to build on this momentum, particularly in the home.
Cisco s gear is the more daring because it is a dedicated video-calling system.
The package includes a camera and a console, which together cost $599. Users
also have to pay $25 a month for unlimited calls. And they need a
high-definition television set as well as a fast internet connection to get
good results.
Still a few glitches
Yet despite all the progress, video communication is probably still not ready
to take the world by storm. Most systems are not compatible: common technical
standards are years away, as is a common video phone book. And it is unclear
how quickly video-calling will spread. Gartner forecasts that the growth of
high-end telepresence systems will allow companies to keep more workers at
their desks, saving 2.1m airline journeys a year by 2012 and cutting car-rental
costs. But it is not clear that travelling salesmen, for example, will take to
the technology.
Another open question is whether customers will plump for dedicated video
communication systems over those that also serve other purposes, such as a PC
or a games console. Companies need both types: dedicated ones for important
meetings and PC-based ones for everyday communication. But will consumers spend
a few hundred dollars for an extra device? Then again, experts were equally
sceptical when Cisco launched its executive telepresence systems.
Whatever system they pick, consumers will come up with new ways to use it.
Already, some families host Skype dinners , with relatives calling in. Others
never hang up, thus turning a display in the kitchen into a window on somebody
else s home. Similarly, some firms have started to experiment with virtual
water-coolers , connecting their office kitchens by means of a permanent video
link. Whether this improves productivity or simply encourages long-distance
debates about football and The X-Factor remains unclear.