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Experts: Cold snap doesn't disprove global warming

By MALCOLM RITTER, AP Science Writer Malcolm Ritter, Ap Science Writer 1 hr

50 mins ago

Beijing had its coldest morning in almost 40 years and its biggest snowfall

since 1951. Britain is suffering through its longest cold snap since 1981. And

freezing weather is gripping the Deep South, including Florida's orange groves

and beaches.

Whatever happened to global warming?

Such weather doesn't seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth

is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn't

disprove global warming at all it's just a blip in the long-term heating

trend.

"It's part of natural variability," said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at

the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global

warming, he said, "we'll still have record cold temperatures. We'll just have

fewer of them."

Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that

2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880.

Scientists say man-made climate change does have the potential to cause more

frequent and more severe weather extremes, such as heat waves, storms, floods,

droughts and even cold spells. But experts interviewed by The Associated Press

did not connect the current frigid blast to climate change.

So what is going on?

"We basically have seen just a big outbreak of Arctic air" over populated areas

of the Northern Hemisphere, Arndt said. "The Arctic air has really turned

itself loose on us."

In the atmosphere, large rivers of air travel roughly west to east around the

globe between the Arctic and the tropics. This air flow acts like a fence to

keep Arctic air confined.

But recently, this air flow has become bent into a pronounced zigzag pattern,

meandering north and south. If you live in a place where it brings air up from

the south, you get warm weather. In fact, record highs were reported this week

in Washington state and Alaska.

But in the eastern United States, like some other unlucky parts of the globe,

Arctic air is swooping down from the north. And that's how you get a

temperature of 3 degrees in Beijing, a reading of minus-42 in mainland Norway,

and 18 inches of snow in parts of Britain, where a member of Parliament who

said the snow "clearly indicates a cooling trend" was jeered by colleagues.

The zigzag pattern arises naturally from time to time, but it is not clear why

it's so strong right now, said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist at the

Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration. The center says the pattern should begin to weaken in a week or

two.

Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground, a forecasting

service, said he expects more typical winter weather across North America early

next week.

That will be welcome news in the South, where farmers have been trying to

salvage millions of dollars' worth of strawberries and other crops.

On Miami Beach, tourists bundled up in woolen winter coats and hooded

sweatshirts Wednesday beneath a clear blue sky. Some brazenly let the water

wash over their feet and a few even lay out in bikinis and swimming trunks. A

brisk wind blew and temperatures hovered in the 50s.

"Last year we were swimming every day," said Olivia Ruedinger of Hamburg,

Germany. "I miss that."

Raphael Satter in London, Cara Anna in Beijing, and Christine Armario in Miami

contributed to this report.