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China overtakes U.S. as top CO2 emitter

By AUDRA ANG, Associated Press Writer Wed Jun 20, 4:23 PM ET

BEIJING - China has overtaken the United States as the world's top producer of

carbon dioxide emissions the biggest man-made contributor to global warming

based on the latest widely accepted energy consumption data, a Dutch research

group says.

According to a report released Tuesday by the Netherlands Environmental

Assessment Agency, China overtook the U.S. in emissions of CO2 by 8 percent in

2006. While China was 2 percent below the United States in 2005, voracious coal

consumption and increased cement production caused the numbers to rise rapidly,

the group said.

"It's an expression of their fast industrial production activities and their

fast development," Jos G.J. Olivier, the agency's senior scientist who compiled

the figures, said Wednesday. The agency is independent but paid by the Dutch

government to advise it on environmental policy.

The study said China, which relies on coal for two-thirds of its energy needs

and makes 44 percent of the world's cement, produced 6.2 billion metric tons of

carbon dioxide in 2006. In comparison, the U.S., which gets half its

electricity from coal, produced 5.8 billion metric tons of CO2, it said.

The group's analysis makes sense and had been predicted to happen by 2009 or

2010, said experts from the United Nations and the U.S. Energy Information

Administration, and outside academics.

Bert Metz, a senior researcher at the Dutch agency and a leading expert on

efforts to battle global warming, said the analysis was done using methods and

data that "are the best currently available."

This means that "Chinese contributions to global CO2 emissions are getting more

important," Metz said in an e-mail to The Associated Press.

Telephone calls to China's State Environmental Protection Agency and the

National Development and Reform Commission, the Cabinet-level economic planning

agency, were not answered Wednesday.

Earlier figures indicated China would likely surpass the U.S. in greenhouse gas

emissions as early as 2009, although other predictions said it could happen

this year.

Chinese environmental officials have said that while total emissions are going

up, they are still less than one quarter of those of the United States on a per

capita basis. Because China's population of 1.3 billion people is more than

four times that of the United States, China spews about 10,500 pounds of carbon

dioxide per person, while in the United States it is nearly 42,500 pounds per

person.

Olivier said there was not much chance China will now lose its lead.

"China's growth will saturate at some point," he said. But "for now, we don't

see a trend (toward) this saturation yet."

Olivier said the research was based on data on fossil fuel consumption from BP

PLC's Review of Energy 2007, compiled by the British oil company, and cement

production data through 2006 published by the U.S. Geological Survey.

John Christensen, head of the U.N. Environment Program's Center on Energy,

Climate and Sustainable Development in Denmark, said the figures did not come

as a surprise.

"The Dutch agency referred to BP statistics, which is the standard reference

tool. We have no reason to doubt that the numbers are right. We have no reason

to doubt the methodology," Christensen said. "It's been stated many times that

China will overtake the U.S. in emissions."

Other sources of carbon dioxide, such as deforestation and the flaring of gas

in oil and gas production, are not included in the data. They also do not

include methane from fuel production and agriculture and nitrous oxide from

industry.

Fatih Birol, chief economist of the Paris-based International Energy Agency

also said the findings were not surprising, given China's economic growth of

more than 9 percent annually over the past 25 years.

His agency had estimated China would overtake the U.S. before 2010; in November

it sharpened the forecast to 2007 or 2008.

But the issue isn't just current emissions, but carbon dioxide stuck in the

atmosphere, where it lingers for about a century trapping heat below, said Jay

Apt, a professor of engineering, business and public policy at Carnegie Mellon

University in Pittsburgh.

Apt and a colleague calculated the share of carbon dioxide now in the

atmosphere that can be attributed to each country and determined that the

United States is responsible for 27 percent, European nations contributed 20

percent and China only 8 percent.

"The planet does not respond to emissions, the planet responds to the amount of

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," said Apt. "It means the U.S. will have the

lion's share of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the foreseeable future. In

fact, even if China's exponential growth continues, China will not surpass the

U.S. in the numbers of carbon dioxide atoms in the atmosphere, that is

concentration, until at least 2050, which is too late to start anything."

The International Energy Agency's Birol said the key message from the emission

figures isn't who is No. 1, but the need to slow growth in CO2 emissions. "The

rest of the world with the help of China needs to find ways for China to reduce

CO2 emissions," Birol said.

China has come under growing international pressure to take more forceful

measures to curb releases of greenhouse gases.

This month, China unveiled its first national program to combat global warming

with promises to rein in greenhouse gas production. While the program offered

few new concrete targets for greenhouse gas emissions, it outlined steps the

country would take to meet a previously announced goal of improving energy

efficiency in 2010 by 20 percent over 2005's level.

Beijing also indicated an unwillingness to enforce mandatory emissions caps.

Ma Kai, the minister heading the National Development and Reform Commission,

said economic development is a priority for China, but efforts would be made to

raise awareness about global warming.

China signed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which caps the amount of carbon dioxide

that can be emitted in industrialized countries. But because China is

considered a developing country it is exempt from emission reductions a

situation often cited by the Bush administration and Australia for not

accepting the treaty.

Yang Ailun of Greenpeace China called on the country to take more steps to

protect the environment. "Due to the urgency of climate change, China has the

responsibility to take immediate actions to reform its energy structure and

curb its CO2 emissions," Yang said in a statement.

She noted that Western consumers use products made in China.

"All the West has done is export a great slice of its carbon footprint to China

and make China the world's factory," she said. "This trend has kept the price

of projects in the West down, but led to a climate disaster in the long term."