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Why Gladwell s 10,000-hour rule is wrong

There s no magic number for becoming a world-beater, says science writer David

Bradley, just ask the psychologist whose research formed the basis of the

popular idea.

Being exceptional at something is often attributed to one s genes. Talent is

passed down from parents or grandparents it seems, whether it is musical or

artistic skill, ability with numbers or being great at juggling. No doubt there

are significant genetic factors involved, but there are almost certainly

environmental factors in the mix too. Perhaps the two work together, one

boosting the other, so that those remarkable genes give rise to remarkable

talent only if the skills are suitably nurtured.

However, many people now recognise that talent is learned and earned through

extended and intense practice of a skill. No pain, no gain, as they say, in

which case genes may have little to do with it.

This idea is encapsulated in a golden rule made popular by the writer Malcolm

Gladwell in his book Outliers. This 10,000 hours of practice rule is based on

research by psychologist Anders Ericsson, now at Florida State University. The

rule tells us, a mere 10,000 hours of dedicated practice in your particular

field is sufficient to bring out the best in you. Is this true? Let s trace how

the rule emerged.

In essence, Ericsson s theory suggests that sufficient practice in a particular

skill can take anyone to a proficiency level equivalent to that of a top

classical musician. To illustrate the point, Gladwell focuses on one of

Ericsson s key studies on violinists at Berlin s Academy of Music. Students had

begun playing at around five years of age, all putting in similar practice

times, but by age eight, the practice times began to diverge, some practising

more than others. By age twenty, the elite performers totalled 10,000 hours of

practice each, while the merely good students had totalled 8,000 hours, and the

lesser-able performers had just over 4,000 hours of practice.

Ericsson and his colleagues discovered a similar pattern in professional and

amateur pianists. By the age of twenty, amateurs had put in 2,000 hours of

practice, whereas professionals had done considerably more reaching 10,000

hours, in fact. The idea that excellence at performing a complex task requires

a critical minimum level of practice surfaces again and again in studies of

expertise, writes Gladwell in Outliers.

Fab formula?

Gladwell points out that all great sportspeople, performers and even computer

programmers got in their 10,000 hours of practice in their particular art early

in life, allowing them to shine while their less-diligent contemporaries were

still grappling with the basics. For instance, he cites the figure of 10,000

hours in connection with the early days of The Beatles when they played almost

endless nights in the clubs and bars of Hamburg, Germany, between 1960 and

1964. This opportunity gave them something few musicians had during that era

plenty of time to practice. Ultimately, says Gladwell, this is what made the

Fab Four top musicians and songwriters.

He also cites Bill Gates, the co-founder of computer software giant Microsoft,

as a great example of the 10,000-hour rule. He had rare access to a computer in

1968 at the age of 13, at a time when most of his school friends in Seattle

would have been playing baseball, or dreaming of putting flowers in their hair

and heading to San Francisco. Gates spent night times and weekends with friends

in the computer room, which gave him a substantial head start in the area of

programming, and apparently allowed him to build his company at a much younger

age than he might otherwise have been able to.

Many of us imagine that hours and hours spent on our chosen pursuit are somehow

edging us towards that target of 10,000. I ve played guitar since the age of

12, but I don t imagine that I m anything but a total amateur musically

speaking I ve not put in the dedicated, repetitive practice. Anyone who has

heard me strumming might suggest that I plug headphones into my guitar amp and

practise for another 10,000 hours before letting anyone ever hear me play

again.

One person who might agree is Ericsson, the psychologist on whose research

Gladwell apparently based his interpretation of the 10,000-hour rule. Not

because he has heard me play, but because this rule is not quite as it may

seem.

To notch up 10,000 hours would require about 90 minutes of practice every day

for 20 years. This might explain why the typical child learning the piano will

never make it to concert level. Three hours a day gets you to that stage within

a decade, so start at the age of ten and you re done before you re out of your

teens.

Unfortunately, the moment the 10,000-hour mark is reached is not a skills

tipping point to use another phrase popularised by Gladwell. Learning and

gaining experience are gradual processes; skills evolve slowly, with practice.

And there is a vast range of time periods over which different individual reach

their own peak of proficiency their concert level, you might say in

whatever field.

Unattainable goal

Returning to Ericsson s original study on violinists, they did indeed find that

the best of Berlin s Academy of Music s best spent significantly more time

practicing than lesser-accomplished musicians. But there is nothing magical

about the 10,000 figure, as Ericsson said recently, because the best group of

musicians had accumulated an average, not a total, of over 10,000 hours by the

age of twenty. In the world of classical music it seems that the winners of

international competitions are those who have put in something like 25,000

hours of dedicated, solitary practice that s three hours of practice every

day for more than 20 years.

In fact, one can attain international-level status in less time, especially if

the area is less competitive. For instance, Ericsson and colleagues have found

that college students could reach a world-class performance for memorising

digits after only 500 to 1,000 hours of training.

Ericsson is also on record as emphasising that not just any old practice counts

towards the 10,000-hour average. It has to be deliberate, dedicated time spent

focusing on improvement. Not all the examples in Gladwell s book qualify as

such deliberate practice: writing computer programs and playing ice-hockey

matches, for instance, may not count. It s not a matter of simply taking part

in an activity, Ericsson argues. Sportspeople have other considerations, for

instance, there are physical limits on how much dedicated practice is possible.

But the question of whether or not 10,000, or even 25,000 hours of practice is

enough does not tell us anything about whether some people are born with a

particular talent. We do not yet know whether anyone with strong enough

motivation and the spare time could become a virtuoso simply through deliberate

practice, year in year out.

Scientifically speaking, 10,000 hours is not a precise figure but shorthand for

lots and lots of dedicated practice . Even 10,000 hours of dedicated practice

may not be enough to give you the skills of a virtuoso. But whether you dream

of playing at the concert hall, wielding the guitar, or taking part on the

running track, 10,000 hours is a good starting point. Double that and you may

even be winning international competitions.

However you look at it, being the best requires a lot of time and effort, and

few people are willing to dedicate so much of their lives to a single pursuit.

So while practice may get some of us close to perfection, for many of us it is

an unattainable goal. That s no reason not to give it a try, of course. Some

day, I might even unplug those headphones once more.