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1. Science isn't handed down from on high fully formed. It's a process of figuring things out based on what you know so far and what you discover. Like trying to determine the picture on a puzzle when the pieces are still scattered around the house. You look for more pieces, you figure out where they fit, you set aside the ones that turn out to be from a different puzzle, and you get a better idea of what the picture is as you go along.
2. Tactics change with the terrain. When a tool is in short supply, you save it for those who most need it. When it's widely available, you can use it more. When a risk is both high and widespread in your area, you take more precautions than when it's lower and rarer.
3. News and advice should be looked at through the lens of "Based on what we know so far, under current conditions." As we learn more, and as conditions change, that will change. That's how science works, how learning works, and how time works.
4. Nothing in life is certain. But a 90% reduction in your chances of something awful happening is pretty damn good when you compare it to the baseline instead of that ideal 100%.
—Kelson Vibber, 2021-12-03
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